EUR/USD awaits French, Spanish CPI data amid ECB rate cut speculation

EUR/USD trades near 1.0720 ahead of crucial French and Spanish inflation data releases scheduled for today's European session. Markets are pricing in an 85% probability that the ECB will maintain current rates at their July meeting, with approximately 52% odds of a 25 basis point cut in September. Today's inflation figures from two of the eurozone's largest economies will provide key insights into the ECB's policy trajectory through summer. Unless the data significantly deviates from expectations, the immediate impact on EUR/USD is likely to be limited. The pair has been consolidating in a tight range between 1.0700 support and 1.0750 resistance as traders await clearer signals on monetary policy divergence between the ECB and Federal Reserve. A surprise uptick in inflation could strengthen the euro and reduce September rate cut expectations, while softer readings might accelerate EUR/USD's decline toward the 1.0680 level.