USDCHF Neutral

Analysis Price: 0.7692 (Updated: 16 February 2026, 22:23 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for USDCHF showing neutral market bias. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Neutral Medium Confidence High Risk

Market Consensus:

43% Long

57% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a neutral outlook for USDCHF. Contradicting factors: High probability (95%) resistance zone detected at 0.7726; Retail sentiment is 79% bullish. Risk assessment for this trade is high. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (79% long / 21% short). The overall neutral bias (57%) mentioned in the page header represents our analytical consensus based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.

LONG SHORT

79% 21%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Extremely bullish sentiment with 79% of traders holding long positions. This extreme positioning could indicate a potential contrarian short opportunity as the market may be overcrowded.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 0.7718 0.33% ↑

Analysis Price: 0.7692

Support Levels

S1: 0.7677 0.20% ↓

Market Regime:

Range

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

70%

Price Position Analysis

Price is between support at 0.7677 (0.20% below analysis price) and resistance at 0.7718 (0.33% above), with slightly closer proximity to support. Watch for bounce confirmation at support or break below.

Chart Pattern Analysis

65%

Bearish Engulfing

Reliability:

65%

Detected: Feb 16, 22:41

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly bearish patterns detected across timeframes, suggesting downward pressure. The most reliable pattern is a bearish Bearish Engulfing on the D1 timeframe with 65% historical reliability. This pattern is currently only confirmed on the D1 timeframe.

High Probability Zones

Support Zone

86%

Zone Level:

0.7500

analysis price:

0.7692

Distance:

2.50%

Confluence Factors:

Inverse Head and Shoulders 161.8% Extension Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

A high probability (86%) support zone exists at 0.7500, currently 2.50% away from price. Keep this level on watch for potential future buying opportunities if price moves lower.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

67.0

Volatility Regime:

High

Volatility Level:

85%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

USDCHF is experiencing high volatility (85 percentile) with an expected daily range of 67.0 pips. This above-average movement creates trading opportunities but requires careful risk management. Consider slightly wider stop losses and moderate position sizing.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with USDCHF

AUDUSD

-0.89

GBPUSD

-0.87

USDJPY

0.78

NZDUSD

-0.74

GBPCHF

0.66

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how USDCHF correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

USDCHF shows strong positive correlation with: USDJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

USDCHF shows strong negative correlation with: AUDUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

USD

-0.22

Neutral

CHF

0.91

Very-strong

Relative Strength:

-1.13

Bearish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

CHF is significantly stronger than USD on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -1.13. This suggests a strong bearish bias for USDCHF. However, this bias is primarily driven by the strength of CHF.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on USDCHF to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.