EURUSD Neutral

Analysis Price: 1.1781 (Updated: 21 February 2026, 18:44 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for EURUSD showing neutral market bias. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Neutral Medium Confidence High Risk

Market Consensus:

56% Long

44% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a neutral outlook for EURUSD. Supporting factors include: Retail sentiment is balanced (50% long, 50% short); Technical patterns identified: Rectangle (H1), Rectangle (D1). Contradicting factors: EUR is showing relative strength against USD (diff: 36%). Risk assessment for this trade is high. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

50% 50%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Neutral sentiment with a balanced distribution between long and short positions. This suggests indecision in the market, which could precede a significant move once a clear direction emerges.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 1.1807 0.22% ↑

Analysis Price: 1.1781

Support Levels

S1: 1.1743 0.32% ↓

Market Regime:

Downtrend

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

60%

Price Position Analysis

Price is between support at 1.1743 (0.32% below analysis price) and resistance at 1.1807 (0.22% above), with slightly closer proximity to resistance. Watch for rejection confirmation at resistance or break above.

Chart Pattern Analysis

58%

Rectangle

Reliability:

58%

Detected: Feb 21, 12:23

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly neutral patterns detected, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. The most reliable pattern is a neutral Rectangle on the H4 timeframe with 58% historical reliability. This pattern is currently only confirmed on the H4 timeframe.

High Probability Zones

Resistance Zone

84%

Zone Level:

1.2166

analysis price:

1.1781

Distance:

3.27%

Confluence Factors:

Shooting Star 127% Extension Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

A high probability (84%) resistance zone exists at 1.2166, currently 3.27% away from price. Keep this level on watch for potential future selling opportunities if price moves higher.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

85.0

Volatility Regime:

High

Volatility Level:

87%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

EURUSD is experiencing high volatility (87 percentile) with an expected daily range of 85.0 pips. This above-average movement creates trading opportunities but requires careful risk management. Consider slightly wider stop losses and moderate position sizing.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with EURUSD

EURAUD

0.83

USDJPY

-0.80

USDCAD

-0.80

GBPUSD

0.77

AUDUSD

0.75

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how EURUSD correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

EURUSD shows strong positive correlation with: EURAUD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

EURUSD shows strong negative correlation with: USDJPY, USDCAD. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

EUR

-0.39

Weak

USD

0.60

Strong

Relative Strength:

-0.99

Bearish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

USD is significantly stronger than EUR on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -0.99. This suggests a strong bearish bias for EURUSD. With USD showing absolute strength and EUR showing absolute weakness, this is an ideal scenario for a short position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on EURUSD to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.