EURUSD Bearish

Analysis Price: 1.1514 (Updated: 23 November 2025, 05:08 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for EURUSD showing a predominantly bearish bias with 64% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish Medium Confidence High Risk

Market Consensus:

36% Long

64% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a medium confidence bearish bias for EURUSD (signal strength: 28%). Supporting factors include: High probability (95%) resistance zone detected at 1.1526. Contradicting factors: Technical patterns identified: Inverse Head and Shoulders (D1). Risk assessment for this trade is high. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

48% 52%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Neutral sentiment with a balanced distribution between long and short positions. This suggests indecision in the market, which could precede a significant move once a clear direction emerges.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 1.1552 0.33% ↑

Analysis Price: 1.1514

Support Levels

S1: 1.1491 0.20% ↓

Market Regime:

Downtrend

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

55%

Price Position Analysis

Price is between support at 1.1491 (0.20% below analysis price) and resistance at 1.1552 (0.33% above), with slightly closer proximity to support. Watch for bounce confirmation at support or break below.

Chart Pattern Analysis

88%

Bearish Engulfing

Reliability:

88%

Detected: Nov 22, 17:58

66%

Bearish Flag

Reliability:

66%

Detected: Nov 22, 18:25

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly bearish patterns detected across timeframes, suggesting downward pressure. The most reliable pattern is a bearish Bearish Engulfing on the D1 timeframe with 88% historical reliability. Multiple timeframes showing pattern confirmation increases the reliability of the signal.

High Probability Zones

Support Zone

95%

Zone Level:

1.1281

analysis price:

1.1514

Distance:

2.02%

Confluence Factors:

Hammer 127% Extension Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Resistance Zone

71%

Zone Level:

1.2000

analysis price:

1.1514

Distance:

4.22%

Confluence Factors:

Bearish Engulfing 78.6% Extension Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

A high probability (95%) support zone exists at 1.1281, currently 2.02% away from price. Keep this level on watch for potential future buying opportunities if price moves lower.

Multiple high probability zones exist for this pair, indicating a well-structured technical environment with clear levels for trading decisions.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

75.0

Volatility Regime:

Low

Volatility Level:

20%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

EURUSD is exhibiting low volatility (20 percentile) with an expected daily range of just 75.0 pips. This reduced movement typically indicates consolidation or indecision in the market. Consider tighter stop losses but be aware that breakout potential increases after periods of low volatility.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with EURUSD

EURGBP

0.90

EURNZD

0.86

GBPUSD

0.81

EURCAD

0.81

USDJPY

-0.74

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how EURUSD correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

EURUSD shows strong positive correlation with: EURGBP, EURNZD, GBPUSD, EURCAD. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

EURUSD shows strong negative correlation with: USDJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

EUR

0.29

Neutral

USD

-0.21

Neutral

Relative Strength:

0.50

Bullish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

EUR is moderately stronger than USD on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of 0.50. This suggests a mild bullish bias for EURUSD. Monitor for additional confirmation signals before entering a long position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on EURUSD to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.