EURUSD Bearish

Analysis Price: 1.1738 (Updated: 10 July 2025, 02:29 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for EURUSD showing a predominantly bearish bias with 70% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish High Confidence High Risk

Market Consensus:

30% Long

70% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a high confidence bearish bias for EURUSD (signal strength: 41%). Supporting factors include: EUR is showing relative weakness against USD (diff: 45%); Retail sentiment is 68% bearish. Risk assessment for this trade is high. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

32% 68%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Bearish sentiment with 68% of traders holding short positions. The market has a negative bias, but watch for signs of exhaustion if this percentage increases further.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 1.1829 0.78% ↑

Analysis Price: 1.1738

Support Levels

S1: 1.1687 0.43% ↓

Market Regime:

Range

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

60%

Price Position Analysis

Price is between support at 1.1687 (0.43% below analysis price) and resistance at 1.1829 (0.78% above), with slightly closer proximity to support. Watch for bounce confirmation at support or break below.

Chart Pattern Analysis

No chart patterns detected for EURUSD at this time.

High Probability Zones

No high probability zones detected for EURUSD at this time.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

65.0

Volatility Regime:

Normal

Volatility Level:

52%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

EURUSD is showing normal volatility (52 percentile) with an expected daily range of 65.0 pips. This represents average market conditions conducive to standard trading strategies. Standard position sizing and stop loss parameters are appropriate.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with EURUSD

USDCHF

-0.87

NZDUSD

0.86

GBPUSD

0.85

USDCAD

-0.80

EURAUD

0.78

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how EURUSD correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

EURUSD shows strong positive correlation with: NZDUSD, GBPUSD, EURAUD. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

EURUSD shows strong negative correlation with: USDCHF, USDCAD. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

EUR

-0.93

Very-weak

USD

-0.02

Neutral

Relative Strength:

-0.91

Bearish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

USD is significantly stronger than EUR on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -0.91. This suggests a strong bearish bias for EURUSD. However, this bias is primarily driven by the weakness of EUR.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on EURUSD to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.