EURUSD Neutral

Analysis Price: 1.16808 (Updated: 21 August 2026, 18:17 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for EURUSD showing neutral market bias. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

View EURUSD sentiment overview

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Signal Overview

Neutral Low Confidence High Risk

Signal Balance:

53% Long

47% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a neutral outlook for EURUSD. Supporting factors include: High probability (65%) resistance zone detected at 1.17500. Contradicting factors: Price is near a support level at 1.16692 (0.1% below current price); Retail sentiment is 74% bearish. Risk assessment for this trade is high.

Sentiment Analysis

Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (26% long / 74% short). The overall neutral bias (47%) mentioned in the page header represents our signal balance based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.

LONG SHORT

26% 74%

Historical Sentiment

Sentiment Interpretation

Bearish sentiment with 74% of traders holding short positions. The market has a negative bias, but watch for signs of exhaustion if this percentage increases further.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Analysis Price: 1.16808

Resistance Levels

R1: 1.17105 0.25% ↑

R2: 1.17400 0.51% ↑

R3: 1.18000 1.02% ↑

Support Levels

S1: 1.16692 0.10% ↓

S2: 1.16195 0.52% ↓

S3: 1.15854 0.82% ↓

Market Regime:

Uptrend

Analyst Bias:

Bullish

Analyst Comment:

Clean breakout above 1.1614 with positive MACD momentum while 74% of retail is short, a contrarian tailwind. Buy dips toward 1.1670-1.1620; only a close back under 1.1585 negates.

Direction Probability:

70%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near support at 1.16692 (0.10% below analysis price) with resistance at 1.17105 (0.25% above). This position near support could present a potential buying opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

78%

Three Black Crows

Reliability:

78%

Detected: Aug 21, 14:00

78%

Three Black Crows

Reliability:

78%

Detected: Aug 21, 13:00

66%

Bearish Engulfing

Reliability:

66%

Detected: Aug 21, 00:00

66%

Bearish Engulfing

Reliability:

66%

Detected: Aug 21, 12:00

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly bearish patterns detected across timeframes, suggesting downward pressure. The most reliable pattern is a bearish Three Black Crows on the H1 timeframe with 78% historical reliability. Multiple timeframes showing pattern confirmation increases the reliability of the signal.

High Probability Zones

Resistance Zone

65%

Zone Level:

1.17500

analysis price:

1.16808

Distance:

0.65%

Confluence Factors:

Three Black Crows

Valid on Timeframes:

Resistance Zone

62%

Zone Level:

1.17105

analysis price:

1.16808

Distance:

0.31%

Confluence Factors:

Three Black Crows

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Support Zone

60%

Zone Level:

1.16195

analysis price:

1.16808

Distance:

0.47%

Confluence Factors:

24% Retracement

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1

Support Zone

54%

Zone Level:

1.16690

analysis price:

1.16808

Distance:

0.05%

Confluence Factors:

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is approaching a high probability (65%) resistance zone at 1.17500, currently 0.65% away. Consider preparing a sell strategy as price approaches this level, watching for confirmation signals.

Multiple high probability zones exist for this pair, indicating a well-structured technical environment with clear levels for trading decisions.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

10.2

Volatility Regime:

Normal

Volatility Level:

47%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

EURUSD is showing normal volatility (47 percentile) with an expected daily range of 10.2 pips. This represents average market conditions conducive to standard trading strategies. Standard position sizing and stop loss parameters are appropriate.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with EURUSD

USDCHF

-0.91

GBPUSD

0.82

NZDUSD

0.76

USDCAD

-0.75

CADCHF

-0.75

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how EURUSD correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

EURUSD shows strong positive correlation with: GBPUSD, NZDUSD. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

EURUSD shows strong negative correlation with: USDCHF, USDCAD, CADCHF. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

EUR

0.07

Neutral

USD

-0.12

Neutral

Relative Strength:

0.19

Neutral Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

EUR and USD show similar strength levels on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of 0.19. This indicates a neutral bias for EURUSD and suggests range-bound trading conditions may be more likely.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on EURUSD to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.