EURNZD Bearish

Analysis Price: 1.9355 (Updated: 2 July 2025, 01:01 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for EURNZD showing a predominantly bearish bias with 58% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

Select Currency Pair

Signal Overview

Bearish Medium Confidence High Risk

Market Consensus:

42% Long

58% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a medium confidence bearish bias for EURNZD (signal strength: 15%). Supporting factors include: EUR is showing relative weakness against NZD (diff: 23%); Retail sentiment is 60% bearish. Risk assessment for this trade is high. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

40% 60%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Bearish sentiment with 60% of traders holding short positions. The market has a negative bias, but watch for signs of exhaustion if this percentage increases further.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 1.9488 0.69% ↑

Analysis Price: 1.9355

Support Levels

S1: 1.9262 0.48% ↓

Market Regime:

Range

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

55%

Price Position Analysis

Price is between support at 1.9262 (0.48% below analysis price) and resistance at 1.9488 (0.69% above), with slightly closer proximity to support. Watch for bounce confirmation at support or break below.

Chart Pattern Analysis

95%

Bullish Engulfing

Reliability:

95%

Detected: Jul 1, 16:42

92%

Descending Triangle

Reliability:

92%

Detected: Jul 1, 14:37

90%

Symmetric Triangle

Reliability:

90%

Detected: Jul 1, 19:25

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Mixed pattern signals detected, suggesting conflicting technical factors. The most reliable pattern is a bullish Bullish Engulfing on the H1 timeframe with 95% historical reliability. Multiple timeframes showing pattern confirmation increases the reliability of the signal.

High Probability Zones

Support Zone

92%

Zone Level:

1.9000

analysis price:

1.9355

Distance:

1.83%

Confluence Factors:

Hammer 50% Retracement Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is approaching a high probability (92%) support zone at 1.9000, currently 1.83% away. Consider preparing a buy strategy as price approaches this level, watching for confirmation signals.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

67.0

Volatility Regime:

Low

Volatility Level:

16%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

EURNZD is exhibiting low volatility (16 percentile) with an expected daily range of just 67.0 pips. This reduced movement typically indicates consolidation or indecision in the market. Consider tighter stop losses but be aware that breakout potential increases after periods of low volatility.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with EURNZD

EURJPY

0.88

EURAUD

0.88

EURCAD

0.88

EURCHF

0.85

EURUSD

0.84

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how EURNZD correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

EURNZD shows strong positive correlation with: EURJPY, EURAUD, EURCAD, EURCHF, EURUSD. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

EUR

-0.43

Weak

NZD

1.00

Very-strong

Relative Strength:

-1.43

Bearish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

NZD is significantly stronger than EUR on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -1.43. This suggests a strong bearish bias for EURNZD. With NZD showing absolute strength and EUR showing absolute weakness, this is an ideal scenario for a short position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on EURNZD to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.