The EUR/USD weekly forecast points to a higher likelihood of a September Fed rate cut that is weighing on the dollar.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Marketaux
The USD/CAD weekly forecast shows a fragile Canadian dollar as tariffs reshape the outlook for the economy.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
NZD/USD is ending the trading week with a modest bearish bias, as technical indicators suggest continued downward pressure on the New Zealand dollar. The pair has struggled to maintain upward momentum throughout the week, facing resistance at key technical levels. Traders are closely monitoring the price action as the pair tests important support zones that could determine the near-term direction. The bearish sentiment reflects broader risk-off market conditions and concerns about New Zealand's economic outlook relative to the US dollar's resilience. Technical analysis shows the pair trading below its key moving averages, with momentum indicators pointing to further potential downside. Immediate support is being tested, and a break below current levels could accelerate selling pressure toward lower targets. For traders, the technical setup suggests maintaining a cautious stance on NZD longs while watching for potential short opportunities if key support levels fail.
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The Baker Hughes oil rig count increased by 1 to reach 412 rigs, indicating a marginal expansion in US drilling activity. Oil prices remain relatively unchanged for the trading week, with WTI crude closing last week at $63.33 and maintaining similar levels currently. The modest increase in rig count suggests stable but cautious investment in oil exploration, reflecting balanced market conditions between supply concerns and demand expectations. For forex traders, steady oil prices typically support commodity-linked currencies like CAD and NOK while having neutral implications for the US dollar. The lack of significant movement in oil markets reduces volatility in oil-sensitive currency pairs. Technical levels for oil remain range-bound, with traders awaiting clearer directional signals. The stable oil environment suggests limited impact on forex markets in the near term, allowing traders to focus on other fundamental drivers for currency movements.
USDCAD
USDNOK
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar strengthened following a significant miss in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary reading for August, which plummeted to 58.6 from 61.7, well below the 62.0 forecast. Current conditions dropped dramatically to 60.9 versus 67.9 expected, while expectations improved slightly to 57.2 from 57.1. Inflation expectations jumped notably, with 1-year outlook rising to 4.9% from 4.5% and 5-year expectations increasing to 3.9% from 3.4%. The sharp decline in consumer sentiment, described as a 'big drop' by Joanne Hsu from the University, reflects growing consumer concerns about economic conditions. Higher inflation expectations could support the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, providing underlying support for the dollar. For forex traders, this data reinforces USD strength potential, particularly against risk-sensitive currencies, as deteriorating sentiment often triggers safe-haven flows while elevated inflation expectations maintain rate support.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
Wells Fargo projects US retail sales to surge +0.6% month-over-month for July, driven primarily by a rebound in auto sales and elevated prices. The bank notes that excluding autos, sales gains would be approximately half, at around +0.3%, reflecting underlying consumer spending fatigue. Recent data shows consumers pulling back on discretionary purchases as economic pressures mount. The anticipated strong headline retail sales figure could provide temporary support for the US dollar, particularly if it beats market expectations. However, the weakness in core retail sales (ex-autos) highlights concerning trends in consumer behavior that may limit sustained USD strength. For forex traders, the divergence between headline and core figures suggests potential volatility around the release, with initial USD strength possibly fading if markets focus on weakening consumer fundamentals. The report underscores the importance of looking beyond headline numbers when assessing the dollar's medium-term trajectory.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
EUR/USD is showing signs of recovery as markets react positively to reported peace talk developments between Trump and Putin, reducing geopolitical tensions that had previously weighed on the euro. The pair has pared some recent losses as traders reassess risk sentiment amid hopes for de-escalation in regional conflicts. The optimism surrounding potential diplomatic breakthroughs is providing support for risk-sensitive currencies, with the euro benefiting from reduced safe-haven demand for the US dollar. Technical analysis suggests the pair is attempting to establish a base after recent declines, though significant resistance levels remain overhead. The geopolitical developments add a new dimension to EUR/USD dynamics, potentially offsetting some negative fundamental pressures on the euro. For traders, the peace talk narrative introduces additional volatility and uncertainty, requiring careful monitoring of both diplomatic developments and technical levels. Near-term direction will likely depend on concrete progress in negotiations and broader risk sentiment shifts.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
No real turnaround for the dollar as traders are still firmly pricing in a 25 bps rate cut for September by the Fed
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
Market Analysis by covering: Euro US Dollar. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Market Analysis by covering: US Dollar Japanese Yen. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
Market Analysis by covering: US Dollar Japanese Yen. Read 's Market Analysis on Investing.com
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
A stronger Japan Q2 economic performance is helping to inspire the yen today
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Today marks Assumption Day and it is a public holiday in many countries in Europe. It is a bank holiday of note in the likes of France, Spain, Italy , and some parts of Germany. So, expect the market mood to be quieter as traders and investors are all in a summer holiday mood.
EUR
CHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
A robust US Producer Price Index report has sent ripples across financial markets, dampening hopes for an imminent dovish shift from the Federal
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY has dribbled lower still
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/CAD surged 0.5% to 1.3820 after US Producer Price Index data exceeded expectations, showing a 0.9% monthly gain in July. The pair broke above key technical resistance levels, including the 100-day moving average at 1.3774 and this week's prior high at 1.3805. Earlier selling pressure at the 100-bar moving average on the 4-hour chart (1.3752) failed to contain bullish momentum as traders reacted to the inflation data. The stronger-than-expected PPI reading has reduced expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts, supporting dollar strength. Technical momentum suggests further upside potential with immediate resistance at 1.3850, while support has shifted to the broken 1.3805 level. The breakout above multiple moving averages signals a potential trend reversal, with traders now eyeing upcoming US CPI data for confirmation of persistent inflationary pressures.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
USD/CHF gained 0.4% to 0.8085 following stronger-than-expected US Producer Price Index data showing a 0.9% increase in July. The pair broke decisively above both the 100 and 200-hour moving averages, as well as the crucial 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.8071. This level had previously capped gains during yesterday's Asian session before the pair rotated lower. The unexpected jump in producer prices has tempered expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts, providing fresh momentum for dollar bulls. Technical indicators now point to further upside potential, with immediate resistance at 0.8100 psychological level and the 50% retracement near 0.8120. Support has shifted to the broken 0.8071 area, which should now act as a floor on any pullbacks. The clean break above multiple technical levels suggests a shift in near-term momentum favoring USD strength.
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar index rose 0.3% as markets digested higher-than-expected Producer Price Index data from July, significantly reducing expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. The PPI showed a 0.9% monthly increase, well above consensus estimates, signaling persistent inflationary pressures in the US economy. Treasury yields jumped in response, with the 2-year yield climbing 8 basis points to 4.15%. Market pricing for a 50 basis point cut at the September FOMC meeting dropped from 35% to just 20% following the data release. Major dollar pairs reacted strongly, with EUR/USD falling to 1.0920 and GBP/USD declining to 1.2780. Gold prices also retreated $15 to $2,485 per ounce as real yields moved higher. The data suggests the Fed may maintain a more gradual approach to policy easing, supporting dollar strength in the near term.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
DXY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
Financial markets are recalibrating Federal Reserve rate cut expectations following stronger-than-expected US inflation data. The probability of a 50 basis point cut at the September FOMC meeting has declined sharply, with markets now favoring a more measured 25bp reduction. EUR/USD retreated from recent highs above 1.10 to trade at 1.0925, while GBP/USD fell 0.3% to 1.2785. Gold futures pulled back $18 to $2,487 per ounce as rising real yields reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets. The shift in sentiment reflects growing uncertainty about the pace of disinflation, with producer prices showing unexpected strength. Treasury markets have repriced accordingly, with the 10-year yield climbing to 3.95%. Traders are now focused on upcoming CPI data and Fed communications for further clarity on the monetary policy trajectory, with most analysts expecting a gradual easing cycle rather than aggressive cuts.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Crude oil prices have extended their decline since early August's softer-than-expected NFP report sparked growth concerns, with WTI trading near multi-month lows. The bearish momentum accelerated following OPEC+'s anticipated production increase, adding supply pressure to an already weakening demand outlook. Market focus has shifted to tomorrow's Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, where discussions on potential ceasefire agreements could ease US sanctions on Russian oil exports. This development has reduced geopolitical risk premiums, contributing to the current downtrend. Technical indicators suggest further weakness, with key support levels at $68.50 and $67.00 per barrel. Any breakthrough in diplomatic talks could trigger additional selling pressure as markets price in increased Russian crude supply. Traders should monitor the summit outcomes closely, as failure to reach agreements might spark a relief rally in oil prices.
USDCAD
USDRUB
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
