NZD/USD remains in focus as markets prepare for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's upcoming rate decision, where a hold is widely expected, keeping the Official Cash Rate unchanged. The broader forex landscape is dominated by geopolitical uncertainty as the Trump administration's deadline approaches at 0000 GMT on April 8, adding significant risk-off pressure across currency markets. In the Middle East, Pakistan has proposed a two-week ceasefire, with both parties reportedly considering the offer, though no confirmation has been received. This heightened geopolitical tension is supporting safe-haven flows into the Japanese yen and Swiss franc while weighing on risk-sensitive currencies like the New Zealand and Australian dollars. Traders should monitor the RBNZ statement closely for any shifts in forward guidance that could influence NZD pairs. Near-term, NZD/USD is likely to remain range-bound amid conflicting drivers — a steady RBNZ providing support versus geopolitical headwinds capping upside. Key risk events around the Trump deadline could trigger sharp volatility across USD and commodity-linked pairs.
NZDUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar is seeing modest support as reports of progress in US-Iran negotiations reduce geopolitical risk premiums in the market. According to Axios, citing an Israeli official and two other sources with knowledge of the talks, meaningful headway has been made in the past 24 hours, though reaching a deal by President Trump's 8 PM ET deadline remains a longshot. The potential for a diplomatic resolution has weighed on crude oil prices, which in turn reduces safe-haven demand for currencies like JPY and CHF while supporting risk-sensitive pairs. USD/CAD traders should note that any Iran deal could increase global oil supply expectations, pressuring the Canadian dollar given Canada's oil export dependency. Meanwhile, USD/JPY has edged higher as diminished conflict fears reduce yen safe-haven flows. Traders should exercise caution around the stated deadline, as a breakdown in talks could quickly reverse current positioning. Key levels to watch include USD/JPY resistance near recent highs and support in USD/CAD around current consolidation zones. The situation remains fluid with headline risk elevated.
USDJPY
USDCAD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
AUD/USD is consolidating in a narrow technical range after yesterday's rally pushed the pair back above its 100- and 200-hour moving averages, which had been tightly converged—a signal of building bullish momentum. However, the advance stalled near 0.6938, the lower boundary of a broader swing resistance zone extending up to 0.6962, where sellers consistently defend. The tight convergence of the moving averages below current price suggests they now serve as dynamic support, while the overhead trendline and swing area cap upside attempts. This creates a compression pattern that typically resolves with a decisive breakout in either direction. For traders, key levels to monitor include the 100- and 200-hour MAs as immediate support—a break below would shift momentum back to the bears—while a sustained move above 0.6962 would clear the swing resistance zone and open the door for further upside. The pair remains in a wait-and-see mode, with the next directional move likely requiring a fresh fundamental catalyst to break the current technical equilibrium.
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US Dollar Index (DXY) edged lower during the week ending April 3, declining modestly despite solid US employment data, as turbulent geopolitical developments in the Middle East dominated market sentiment. The six-currency Dollar Index, which measures USD against EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, SEK, and CAD, faced headwinds from a mix of escalatory rhetoric and peace efforts in the region, creating an uncertain risk environment. Strong US Non-Farm Payrolls data, which would typically support the greenback, was overshadowed by geopolitical risk premiums that drove safe-haven flows into competing assets such as gold and the Japanese yen. EUR/USD benefited from the dollar's softness, while USD/JPY faced downward pressure as yen demand increased. The divergence between robust US economic fundamentals and geopolitical uncertainty creates a complex trading environment for dollar pairs. Traders should watch for further developments in Middle East diplomacy and upcoming Federal Reserve commentary for directional cues. Key DXY support lies near recent weekly lows, with resistance at pre-selloff levels.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
USDCHF
USDCAD
USDSEK
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
Geopolitical tensions escalated sharply during the European session as reports confirmed multiple strikes on Iran's Kharg Island, a critical oil export hub, along with damage to the Kashan railway bridge. A senior Iranian source confirmed that Tehran has rejected any temporary ceasefire with the United States, intensifying risk-off sentiment across forex markets. The US dollar found safe-haven demand as traders reassessed geopolitical risk premiums, while gold maintained a bearish bias as President Trump's stated "final" deadline approaches, suggesting potential further escalation. Oil-sensitive currencies such as the Canadian dollar saw mixed reactions, with crude prices spiking on supply disruption fears from Kharg Island, which handles a significant portion of Iran's oil exports. JPY and CHF also attracted safe-haven flows. Near-term, traders should monitor developments around the ceasefire negotiations and any retaliatory actions, as further escalation could drive USD/JPY toward key support levels and push EUR/USD lower. Volatility is expected to remain elevated heading into the next session, with risk sentiment likely dictating price action across major pairs.
EURUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The Asia-Pacific session saw mixed forex action highlighted by rising commodity prices influencing key currency pairs. New Zealand commodity prices posted a notable jump, providing a tailwind for NZD/USD as the kiwi dollar benefits from improved terms of trade expectations. Oil prices ticked higher during the session, lending modest support to commodity-linked currencies such as CAD and AUD against the US dollar. Geopolitical tensions added a layer of uncertainty, with US officials expressing doubts over an Iran nuclear deal deadline extension, viewing tough rhetoric as a negotiating tactic—a factor that contributed to crude oil's bid tone and could sustain energy-related risk premiums. On the broader macro front, risk sentiment remained cautious as traders assessed the interplay between geopolitics and global trade dynamics. For NZD/USD, traders should monitor resistance near recent weekly highs while support holds at prior session lows. USD/CAD may face downward pressure if oil continues to strengthen. The combination of firmer commodities and geopolitical risk suggests commodity currencies could maintain a modest bid in the near term, though headline-driven volatility remains a key risk factor for positioning.
NZDUSD
USDCAD
AUDUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The New Zealand dollar is receiving significant fundamental support after the ANZ Commodity Price Index surged to its second-highest monthly level on record in world price terms, exceeded only by the March 2022 spike triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war. The broad-based rally saw nearly all major commodity categories advance, with dairy prices leading the charge at 5.9% month-over-month as global importers rushed to secure supply amid fears of trade flow disruptions stemming from the escalating Middle East conflict. For NZD/USD traders, the commodity price surge strengthens New Zealand's terms of trade, potentially supporting the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy stance and providing a tailwind for the kiwi. The geopolitical premium embedded in commodity prices also tends to weigh on risk sentiment broadly, which could limit NZD gains against safe-haven currencies like the USD, JPY, and CHF. Traders should monitor developments in the Middle East closely, as further escalation could amplify commodity price volatility. Key NZD/USD levels to watch include resistance near recent highs, while AUD/NZD cross flows may also see activity given the commodity-linked nature of both currencies.
NZDUSD
AUDNZD
NZDJPY
NZDCHF
Sentiment:
Very Positive
Source: Finnhub
Crude oil spiked to $113.77 per barrel following aggressive rhetoric from President Trump during a press conference, where he suggested Iran could be 'taken out in one night,' dramatically escalating geopolitical tensions. The USD strengthened broadly as safe-haven flows intensified, with USD/JPY pushing higher while EUR/USD came under pressure. The comments, made while Trump recounted a past military rescue operation in Iran, injected fresh volatility into already tense markets that had been digesting earlier ceasefire optimism. The sharp oil rally directly impacts commodity-linked currencies, with USD/CAD seeing notable movement as Canada's oil-export economy reacts to energy price surges. USD/CHF faced competing pressures between dollar strength and Swiss franc safe-haven demand. Traders should monitor escalation risks closely, as any further military posturing could drive oil toward $120 and amplify risk-off positioning. Key support for EUR/USD sits near recent lows, while gold and JPY remain primary beneficiaries of sustained geopolitical uncertainty.
EURUSD
USDJPY
USDCAD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
Geopolitical tensions escalated after Iran formally rejected a US ceasefire proposal relayed through Pakistan, demanding a permanent end to hostilities, security guarantees, and compensation before unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. This development carries significant implications for forex markets, particularly for USD pairs and commodity-linked currencies. Crude oil prices face upward pressure as the Hormuz blockage—through which approximately 20% of global oil supply transits—remains in place, supporting commodity currencies like CAD and NOK while weighing on oil-importing nations' currencies such as JPY and INR. The USD may see safe-haven demand in the near term, though prolonged conflict risks undermining broader economic stability. Iran's insistence on comprehensive settlement terms before reopening Hormuz suggests supply disruptions could persist, keeping energy prices elevated. Traders should monitor USD/CAD for potential CAD strength on rising oil, while USD/JPY could see upward pressure as Japan's energy import costs climb. Risk-off sentiment may also benefit CHF and gold as traditional safe havens amid heightened Middle East uncertainty.
USDCAD
USDJPY
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar weakened broadly as reports of US-Iran ceasefire negotiations lifted global risk appetite, pushing traders away from safe-haven assets and into higher-yielding currencies. EUR/USD and AUD/USD gained ground as the diplomatic softening reduced geopolitical risk premiums that had been supporting the greenback. However, the move remains tempered by elevated oil prices and resilient US economic data, which continue to reinforce 'higher-for-longer' Federal Reserve rate expectations. This creates a complex trading environment where peace optimism conflicts with hawkish monetary policy positioning. Risk-sensitive pairs such as AUD/USD and NZD/USD saw inflows, while USD/JPY pulled back modestly as the yen's safe-haven bid faded alongside easing tensions. Traders should watch for concrete ceasefire developments, as any breakdown in talks could rapidly reverse the risk-on positioning. Near-term, the dollar index faces resistance from declining geopolitical premiums but retains fundamental support from strong US labor markets and sticky inflation data.
EURUSD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
US equity futures rose and crude oil prices dropped sharply following reports of a concerted ceasefire push between the United States and Iran, triggering a broad risk-on shift across forex markets. EUR/USD and other risk-sensitive pairs advanced as the dollar retreated from recent highs, with traders unwinding safe-haven positions built during weeks of escalating Middle East tensions. The decline in oil prices provided relief to energy-importing economies, supporting EUR/USD and pressuring USD/CAD as the Canadian dollar faced headwinds from falling crude. AUD/USD and GBP/USD also benefited from improved risk appetite, with equity-correlated flows favoring pro-cyclical currencies. The ceasefire narrative remains fragile, however, and traders should be prepared for rapid sentiment reversals if diplomatic efforts stall. Key technical levels to watch include resistance on EUR/USD at recent swing highs and support on USD/CAD near its 50-day moving average. Positioning ahead of further geopolitical headlines is recommended with tight risk management given elevated volatility conditions.
EURUSD
USDCAD
AUDUSD
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD has climbed 0.4% to 1.1555 during early Monday trading, as broad-based dollar weakness coincides with geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran-US relations. Iran announced it has formulated a response to the United States but will reveal details at a later time, creating a wait-and-see atmosphere across markets. Despite the geopolitical overhang, risk appetite remains cautiously optimistic, with S&P 500 futures up 0.4% on the session. The dollar is selling off across the board, exacerbated by thin liquidity conditions as European traders remain absent, likely due to a holiday. The mixed reception to headlines from the rumour mill over the past 24 hours has kept markets from making decisive moves in either direction. Traders should monitor upcoming Iran-US developments closely, as any escalation could trigger safe-haven flows back into the dollar, while a diplomatic resolution could extend the current risk-on positioning. Near-term EUR/USD resistance sits around the 1.1600 psychological level, with support near 1.1500.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
Geopolitical risk is escalating sharply as Iran reportedly refuses to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a ceasefire, sending shockwaves through forex and commodity markets. US President Trump has warned of imminent massive strikes against Iranian power plants and bridges, raising the prospect of a significant military escalation. Iran has received Pakistan's peace proposal but has rejected any temporary ceasefire arrangement, signaling a hardened negotiating stance. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply, and its continued closure is driving crude oil prices higher, which in turn is pressuring oil-importing currencies such as JPY, EUR, and INR while supporting commodity-linked currencies like CAD and NOK. Safe-haven flows are boosting USD, CHF, and JPY demand. Traders should monitor USD/CAD for potential downside as elevated oil prices support the Canadian dollar, while USD/JPY may see competing forces between yen safe-haven demand and dollar strength. Volatility across major pairs is expected to remain elevated until a diplomatic resolution emerges.
USDCAD
USDJPY
USDCHF
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
OneTwoMarkets has announced a significant platform milestone, surpassing 400,000 registered traders globally while expanding its analytics and execution infrastructure across 45 currency pairs. The Johannesburg-based platform has notably strengthened its coverage of Asian cross pairs, including USD/JPY, USD/SGD, AUD/JPY, USD/THB, and USD/MYR, reflecting growing retail trader demand for exposure to Asian FX markets. The expansion of data delivery tools and live pricing capabilities signals increasing liquidity and participation in these currency pairs, particularly among emerging market and exotic crosses involving the Thai baht and Malaysian ringgit. The platform's emphasis on Asian crosses aligns with broader market trends showing elevated volatility in the region driven by divergent central bank policies between the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Southeast Asian monetary authorities. For traders, the enhanced infrastructure may improve execution quality and tighter spreads on these pairs. The growing retail participation in Asian FX markets could contribute to increased intraday volume, though traders should remain mindful of wider spreads typical in exotic pairs like USD/THB and USD/MYR.
USDJPY
USDSGD
AUDJPY
USDTHB
USDMYR
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
The escalating military conflict between Iran and the United States is injecting significant volatility into forex markets, with traditional safe-haven currencies seeing heightened demand. The conflict has intensified as Iran demonstrated retaliatory capabilities, reportedly downing a U.S. aircraft, signaling this is far from a one-sided engagement. USD/JPY is under pressure as traders flock to the Japanese yen, while USD/CHF faces similar downward momentum amid Swiss franc safe-haven buying. Gold-correlated currencies such as AUD/USD may see mixed impacts as gold prices surge on geopolitical risk, but risk-off sentiment broadly weighs on commodity currencies. Oil prices are expected to spike sharply given Iran's strategic position near the Strait of Hormuz, providing potential support to CAD through crude oil linkage. EUR/USD could see upside as capital flows out of U.S. assets amid uncertainty over the conflict's economic toll. Traders should monitor key support at USD/JPY 148.00 and resistance at EUR/USD 1.1000. Elevated volatility and widening spreads are expected across all major pairs, warranting tighter risk management and reduced position sizing in the near term.
USDJPY
USDCHF
EURUSD
AUDUSD
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY is facing sustained downward pressure as market participants increasingly price in a Bank of Japan rate hike at the upcoming policy meeting this month. The pair has been trending lower as expectations for further BoJ monetary tightening gain traction, narrowing the interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen. The key focus for traders is not merely the rate decision itself, but how the BoJ communicates its forward guidance and prepares investors for the policy shift. A hawkish tone from BoJ officials could accelerate yen strength, pushing USD/JPY toward lower support zones, while a more measured approach might temper the move. On the US side, the Federal Reserve's stance on rate cuts continues to weigh on the dollar broadly, compounding bearish pressure on the pair. Traders should monitor upcoming BoJ commentary and any signals regarding the pace of future tightening. Near-term support levels will be critical to watch, as a decisive break lower could open the door for an extended yen rally. Risk management remains essential given elevated volatility surrounding central bank events.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar is drawing geopolitical support after former President Trump posted on Truth Social about extending US involvement in Iran, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and seizing oil assets. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply, and any escalation or prolonged military presence in the region has significant implications for crude oil prices and risk sentiment. USD/JPY and USD/CHF are in focus as safe-haven flows could intensify, while commodity-linked pairs such as USD/CAD and AUD/USD may see heightened volatility tied to oil price fluctuations. Crude oil markets initially dipped on expectations of increased supply if the strait is fully reopened, though geopolitical risk premiums remain elevated. Traders should monitor developments closely, as any military escalation could trigger sharp moves in risk-sensitive currencies. Near-term, the dollar may benefit from its dual role as both a petrodollar currency and safe-haven asset, while EUR/USD could face downward pressure amid rising global uncertainty.
USDJPY
USDCHF
USDCAD
AUDUSD
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
The US Dollar faces heightened volatility risk ahead of the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls release, as the wide distribution of analyst forecasts increases the probability of a significant surprise deviation from consensus expectations. When actual NFP data lands outside the central cluster of estimates, it typically triggers sharp moves across major USD pairs including EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY. The spread between the highest and lowest forecasts reflects considerable uncertainty about the current state of the US labor market, a key input for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. A stronger-than-expected print would likely bolster the dollar by reinforcing expectations for a more hawkish Fed stance, while a miss to the downside could accelerate USD selling as markets price in earlier rate cuts. Traders should monitor the median estimate as the anchor point and prepare for elevated spread widening and slippage around the release. Key levels on the Dollar Index near-term will likely define directional bias across all major pairs in the sessions following the data.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
AUDUSD
USDCAD
NZDUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar showed mixed performance as equity markets largely shrugged off a sharp rally in oil prices during Thursday's session. US initial jobless claims came in at 202K, beating the 212K estimate and signaling continued labor market resilience, which provides underlying support for the greenback. The US February trade deficit narrowed to -$57.30 billion versus the expected -$61.00 billion, a positive signal for USD fundamentals. In contrast, Canada's February trade balance deteriorated sharply to -$5.74 billion against an expected -$2.25 billion deficit, placing significant pressure on the Canadian dollar and potentially weighing on USD/CAD dynamics in favor of the US dollar. The surge in WTI crude oil prices typically supports commodity-linked currencies like CAD, but the dismal Canadian trade data may offset that tailwind. Traders should monitor USD/CAD for directional cues as the conflicting forces of rising oil and weak Canadian trade data create a complex setup. Near-term USD strength remains supported by solid employment data and improving trade figures.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar faces a unique volatility scenario as the March non-farm payrolls report is scheduled for release at 8:30 am ET on Good Friday, April 3rd — a day when the NYSE stock market is closed. This rare calendar collision creates an unusual trading environment where forex markets, which operate 24 hours, will still be active while equity markets remain shuttered. The bond market closes early at noon ET, and CME futures markets maintain abbreviated schedules. With reduced liquidity across multiple asset classes, USD pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY could experience exaggerated price swings in response to the employment data. Good Friday has been a NYSE holiday nearly every year since 1864, making it the only stock market holiday that is not also a federal holiday. Traders should exercise caution as thinner market conditions may amplify moves in either direction following the jobs data. Positioning ahead of the release is critical, as the lack of equity market participation could distort typical correlations between stocks and forex.
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
