The US dollar faces significant headwinds after the Supreme Court ruled against Trump's tariff authority, while a string of disappointing economic data compounds bearish pressure. US Q4 advance GDP came in at just +1.4%, sharply below the +3.0% consensus, signaling a marked slowdown in economic growth. December PCE inflation printed at +2.9% versus +2.8% expected, keeping price pressures slightly elevated and complicating the Fed's policy outlook. Fed's Logan noted increased inflation uncertainty due to tariffs, adding to market unease. Trump announced plans to invoke a 10% Section 122 global tariff, injecting fresh geopolitical risk. The University of Michigan sentiment index disappointed at 56.6 versus 57.3 expected, and manufacturing PMI slipped to 51.2 against a 52.6 forecast. Canadian retail sales for December fell -0.4%, marginally better than the -0.5% estimate, offering mild CAD support. The Atlanta Fed's Q1 GDP Now estimate stands at 3.1%, providing a counterbalance. Traders should monitor USD pairs closely as tariff uncertainty, weak growth data, and sticky inflation create a complex trading environment with elevated volatility.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
The US dollar is trading erratically across major pairs as markets struggle to interpret the implications of a Supreme Court tariff ruling and its potential reversal. Price action has been choppy with no clear directional bias, as traders weigh the possibility that the Trump administration may reconstitute tariffs through alternative legal mechanisms. Administration officials have repeatedly signaled they retain multiple avenues to reimpose trade barriers, and the initial market reaction suggests participants are largely pricing in that outcome. However, uncertainty remains elevated as the president is expected to address the situation shortly, which could trigger sharp moves across USD pairs. The lack of tariff and constitutional law expertise on trading desks has contributed to indecisive positioning. Key risk events center on the upcoming presidential remarks, which may clarify the administration's next steps. Traders should exercise caution and consider reducing position sizes given the heightened volatility environment and binary risk of the speech outcome.
EURUSD
USDJPY
GBPUSD
USDCAD
USDCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD has staged a recovery but is struggling to sustain gains just below the 1.3700 level, suggesting the rebound may be losing steam. The pair has bounced from recent lows as broad US dollar sentiment stabilizes amid ongoing tariff-related uncertainty, which directly impacts the Canadian economy given its heavy trade dependence on the United States. The Canadian dollar remains sensitive to developments in US trade policy, with any escalation likely to weigh on CAD given Canada's export-driven economic structure. Oil prices, a key driver for the loonie, continue to add a layer of complexity to the pair's outlook. From a technical perspective, the 1.3700 handle represents a significant resistance zone, and failure to break above this level could invite renewed selling pressure. Support is seen near recent lows below 1.3650. Traders should monitor upcoming trade policy announcements and crude oil price movements for directional cues, as the pair appears caught between competing fundamental forces.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
Foreign exchange markets are actively trading geopolitical what-if scenarios surrounding Iran, with oil price fluctuations driving notable moves across EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and the broader US Dollar Index. Brent crude futures remain elevated as traders assess the probability of supply disruptions stemming from heightened tensions in the Middle East, with any escalation potentially removing significant barrels from the global market. The Japanese yen has seen safe-haven demand amid the uncertainty, putting mild downward pressure on USD/JPY, while EUR/USD is navigating the interplay between risk aversion flows and energy cost implications for the eurozone economy. The US Dollar Index futures are reflecting mixed positioning as the greenback benefits from safe-haven flows but faces headwinds from potential economic slowdown risks tied to higher energy costs. Traders are closely monitoring diplomatic developments and military posturing for actionable signals. The correlation between oil price spikes and currency movements remains a key factor, with energy-importing nations' currencies most vulnerable to further crude price advances.
EURUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY is trading higher as softer-than-expected Japanese inflation data eases market expectations for near-term Bank of Japan monetary tightening. The pair has advanced as traders recalibrate their positioning on the BOJ's rate path, with slowing consumer price growth reducing the urgency for additional rate hikes. The data undermines the narrative that had supported yen strength in recent months, where rising inflation was seen as a catalyst for the BOJ to continue normalizing policy. Meanwhile, gold prices in USD terms have also reacted to the shifting rate differential outlook. EUR/USD is seeing secondary effects as the dollar's relative strength against the yen influences broader greenback sentiment. From a technical standpoint, the pair faces resistance at recent swing highs, while support is anchored near previous consolidation zones. The divergence between a still-hawkish Federal Reserve and a potentially more patient BOJ widens the interest rate differential argument in favor of USD/JPY upside. Traders should watch for upcoming BOJ commentary and US economic data for further directional confirmation.
USDJPY
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD is under significant bearish pressure amid escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran, with analysts projecting a potential decline to the 1.16 level should the situation deteriorate further. The US dollar is benefiting from its traditional safe-haven status, drawing capital flows away from the euro as risk aversion intensifies across global markets. The USD/JPY pair is also in focus as the Japanese yen competes with the dollar for safe-haven demand, while EUR/GBP cross dynamics add further complexity to euro positioning. The US Dollar Index Futures have firmed considerably, reflecting broad-based dollar strength against a basket of major currencies. From a technical perspective, a sustained break below key support levels in EUR/USD could accelerate the move toward 1.16, a level not tested in recent sessions. Traders should monitor developments in the Middle East closely, as any further escalation or de-escalation could trigger sharp intraday moves. Risk management is critical given the heightened volatility environment, and upcoming economic data releases may take a backseat to geopolitical headlines in driving price action.
EURUSD
USDJPY
EURGBP
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
GBP/USD has entered its fifth consecutive day of decline, reflecting sustained bearish momentum as the British pound faces mounting selling pressure against a broadly stronger US dollar. The prolonged slide underscores deteriorating sentiment toward sterling, driven by a combination of dollar strength fueled by geopolitical risk premiums and lingering concerns over the UK economic outlook. The five-day losing streak suggests that sellers remain firmly in control, with each successive session failing to produce a meaningful bounce. From a technical standpoint, the persistent downside movement is approaching key support zones, and traders are watching for signs of either capitulation or stabilization. The relative strength index may be nearing oversold territory, which could attract short-term bargain hunters, though the prevailing trend remains decisively bearish. Upcoming UK economic releases and Bank of England commentary will be pivotal in determining whether the pound can find a floor. Traders holding short positions may consider tightening stops near established support levels, while fresh sellers should be cautious of a potential technical rebound after five days of uninterrupted losses.
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
EUR/USD saw limited reaction following the release of France's February flash PMI data, which presented a mixed picture for the Eurozone's second-largest economy. The services PMI rebounded to 49.6, beating the 49.2 consensus and improving from January's 48.4 reading, reaching a two-month high. However, the manufacturing PMI disappointed at 49.9, falling short of the 51.0 expected and slipping back into contraction territory from January's 51.2. The composite PMI edged up to 49.9 versus 49.7 expected, improving from 49.1 prior. A key concern for EUR bulls is the continued decline in new business inflows, which contracted for a third consecutive month at the fastest pace since July 2025, suggesting underlying demand weakness persists. While the services recovery offers modest support, the manufacturing miss and deteriorating order books temper optimism for the euro. Traders will now look to Germany's flash PMI and the broader Eurozone composite reading for further directional cues on EUR/USD. The data keeps the ECB's easing bias intact, limiting euro upside potential.
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
Crude oil markets are experiencing a notable unwinding of long positions, though overall trader positioning remains skewed toward the buy side, suggesting that bullish conviction has not fully eroded. The repositioning in oil markets carries significant implications for commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone, as well as broader risk sentiment influencing major equity indices including the Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Gold priced in US dollars is also being closely monitored as a complementary safe-haven barometer alongside crude oil dynamics. The partial liquidation of longs may reflect profit-taking or hedging activity rather than a fundamental shift in outlook, particularly given ongoing geopolitical tensions that continue to support an underlying risk premium in energy prices. For forex traders, the interplay between oil prices and USD/CAD remains a key relationship to watch, as further long unwinding could weaken the Canadian dollar. Technical indicators on crude suggest a consolidation phase, and the net-long positioning signals that traders anticipate eventual upside. Risk sentiment across equity and commodity markets will continue to influence forex flows in the near term.
USDCAD
XAUUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
The Asia-Pacific FX session saw notable divergence, with AUD/USD and NZD/USD declining while USD/INR came under pressure from active central bank intervention. The New Zealand dollar weakened after the RBNZ signaled that inflation is returning to target with no preset policy path, reinforcing dovish expectations that weighed on NZD crosses. The Australian dollar also fell, with Westpac warning that Australia's headline unemployment rate masks underlying soft demand and declining labor force participation, raising concerns about economic resilience. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India was reportedly selling USD/INR to support the rupee, providing a floor for INR. In commodities, Goldman Sachs issued a bullish gold forecast targeting $5,400/oz by end-2026 on strong demand, a factor that could indirectly support commodity-linked currencies longer term. Adding to broader macro concerns, Mohamed El-Erian flagged private credit fund redemption freezes as a potential systemic risk signal. ECB President Lagarde reaffirmed her intent to complete her term amid succession speculation. Traders should monitor RBNZ and RBA policy signals closely for further directional cues in Antipodean pairs.
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
USDINR
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/JPY faces downward pressure following stronger-than-expected Japanese flash PMI data for February, which bolstered the case for continued Bank of Japan policy normalization. Japan's composite PMI rose to 53.8, marking a solid expansion in private sector activity, while the manufacturing PMI also gained momentum, signaling a broadening recovery. Export orders surged, reflecting robust global demand for Japanese goods and improving trade dynamics. The data reinforces expectations that the BOJ may proceed with further interest rate adjustments in the coming months, particularly as wage growth and inflation remain elevated. The stronger PMI readings contrast with softening economic indicators in other major economies, providing the yen with a relative advantage. Traders should monitor the 149.50 support level on USD/JPY, with a break below potentially opening a move toward the 148.80 zone. Resistance sits near 150.50. The combination of improving Japanese fundamentals and potential BOJ hawkishness creates a supportive backdrop for yen strength in the near term.
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
USD/CAD faces potential downside pressure as Canadian consumer spending data signals underlying economic strength. Canadian Tire's Q4 results revealed normalized EPS surging 38% to $4.47, significantly outperforming expectations. More notably, CEO Greg Hicks highlighted that the retailer's internal data shows spending increases across all income cohorts, regardless of debt burden levels. This broad-based consumer resilience challenges the narrative of an imminent Canadian economic slowdown and could influence the Bank of Canada's rate path, potentially reducing the urgency for further monetary easing. Strong consumer spending typically supports the Canadian dollar by suggesting robust domestic demand and GDP growth. For USD/CAD traders, this data point adds to the case for CAD strength, particularly if upcoming Canadian retail sales and GDP figures confirm the trend. Near-term, traders should watch for whether this consumer resilience translates into firmer inflation readings, which could further bolster CAD by keeping the Bank of Canada cautious on additional rate cuts.
USDCAD
Sentiment:
Positive
Source: Finnhub
GBP/USD has come under significant selling pressure as markets increasingly price in accelerated Bank of England rate cuts, eroding the yield differential that had previously supported the pound. The pair's decline reflects a fundamental shift in monetary policy expectations, with traders now anticipating a more dovish BoE stance amid softening UK economic conditions. The fading yield support has compounded bearish momentum, as UK gilt yields retreat relative to US Treasury yields, diminishing the carry trade appeal of sterling. Cross-pair dynamics are also notable, with EUR/GBP firming and GBP/CHF weakening, underscoring broad-based pound vulnerability. Gold's continued strength against the US dollar (XAU/USD) suggests underlying risk aversion is also weighing on sentiment. Near-term technical levels will be critical for traders, as a sustained break below recent support zones could open the door for further downside. Traders should monitor upcoming UK inflation and employment data, as these releases will be pivotal in confirming or challenging the market's dovish BoE repricing.
GBPUSD
EURGBP
GBPCHF
XAUUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar is holding steady in early trading as Walmart's Q4 earnings report delivers a mixed signal for Federal Reserve policy expectations. The retail giant beat consensus estimates on both revenue and earnings per share, confirming that the US consumer remains resilient and continues to spend. However, the key takeaway for forex markets lies in Walmart's forward guidance, which struck a cautious tone and may signal emerging headwinds for consumer spending in the quarters ahead. Walmart shares are indicated flat in pre-market trading despite the headline beat, suggesting investors are focused on the softer outlook. For the Fed, sustained consumer spending supports the case for maintaining higher interest rates, but weakening guidance could reinforce expectations of eventual rate cuts later in 2026. USD/JPY and EUR/USD traders should monitor how this data feeds into broader consumer confidence and retail sales narratives. Near-term, the dollar index remains range-bound as markets digest conflicting signals from corporate earnings and macroeconomic data ahead of upcoming Fed commentary.
USDJPY
EURUSD
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Finnhub
US equity futures have slid sharply as escalating geopolitical tensions surrounding potential military conflict with Iran combine with growing fears of AI-driven economic disruption, triggering a broad risk-off move across financial markets. Crude oil prices have surged on supply disruption concerns tied to the Iran situation, providing a boost to commodity-linked currencies such as CAD and NOK while pressuring oil-importing economies. The spike in volatility has driven safe-haven demand, supporting the Japanese yen (USD/JPY lower) and Swiss franc (USD/CHF lower) as traders seek shelter from geopolitical uncertainty. Gold has also benefited from the flight to safety, with XAU/USD pushing higher. The US dollar is facing mixed dynamics — benefiting modestly from safe-haven flows but weighed down by declining risk appetite and falling US equity futures. Traders should closely watch developments in Middle East diplomacy and energy market reactions, as further escalation could amplify yen and franc strength while deepening pressure on risk-sensitive pairs like AUD/USD and NZD/USD.
USDJPY
USDCHF
USDCAD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
XAUUSD
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY and the broader US Dollar Index face significant selling pressure after reports emerged that the Federal Reserve conducted an unusual 'rate check' at the request of the White House, a move ING described as 'extremely rare in foreign exchange markets.' A rate check involves the central bank calling dealers to inquire about current exchange rates—a signal often interpreted as a precursor to potential intervention or coordinated policy action aimed at weakening the currency. The development marks a notable escalation in Washington's apparent desire for a softer dollar, raising concerns about politicization of monetary policy tools. For USD/JPY specifically, the yen has strengthened meaningfully as markets digest the implications of explicit government involvement in currency dynamics. Traders should monitor whether this action is followed by actual intervention or further verbal jawboning. Key support for USD/JPY lies at recent lows, while resistance may cap any recovery attempts as uncertainty around US FX policy persists. This event significantly increases near-term dollar volatility risk across all major pairs.
USDJPY
EURUSD
DXY
Sentiment:
Very Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has held firm despite growing market speculation about Washington's increased vigilance over foreign exchange markets. While the White House has signaled heightened attention to currency dynamics, the dollar has demonstrated resilience, supported by relatively strong US economic fundamentals and interest rate differentials that continue to favor the greenback. EUR/USD and USD/JPY remain the primary pairs in focus as traders assess whether political rhetoric will translate into concrete policy action. The divergence between verbal warnings and actual dollar strength suggests the market is treating Washington's FX signals as jawboning rather than a precursor to coordinated intervention. For EUR/USD, the pair remains range-bound as traders weigh US political risk against European economic headwinds. USD/JPY continues to reflect the tension between US yield advantage and Japanese authorities' own intervention concerns. Near-term, the dollar's direction will likely hinge on whether Washington escalates beyond rhetoric, with traders advised to monitor official statements closely for any shift toward actionable FX policy measures.
EURUSD
USDJPY
DXY
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
USD/JPY is drawing significant market attention after reports that the Federal Reserve confirmed it conducted rate checks on the pair, a move that signals heightened vigilance over dollar-yen dynamics. Rate checks are often precursors to potential intervention or policy signaling, and this development has injected fresh uncertainty into the pair's near-term trajectory. The confirmation comes amid ongoing divergence between the Fed's monetary stance and the Bank of Japan's ultra-accommodative policy, which has kept the yen under persistent pressure. The article also references broader implications for EUR/USD and EUR/CHF, suggesting cross-currency flows are being influenced by shifting rate expectations. Traders should monitor key USD/JPY support near recent consolidation zones and resistance at psychological levels that have capped prior rallies. The US Dollar Index futures also feature in the analysis, indicating that dollar strength remains a dominant theme across major pairs. Near-term positioning should account for elevated volatility risk as markets digest the implications of the Fed's unusual rate-check activity on USD/JPY.
USDJPY
EURUSD
EURCHF
Sentiment:
Neutral
Source: Marketaux
The DAX 40 index is showing signs that its prevailing majority buy sentiment may be approaching a critical inflection point, with implications rippling across forex markets including EUR/USD and USD/JPY. The analysis highlights that crowded long positioning in the German benchmark could precede a sentiment reversal, which would likely weigh on the euro and influence broader risk appetite. The article also draws connections to equity benchmarks such as the Nasdaq 100 and FTSE 100, underscoring a global risk sentiment theme. For forex traders, a shift in DAX sentiment could trigger euro weakness against the dollar and Swiss franc, while risk-off flows may benefit the Japanese yen. EUR/USD remains sensitive to European equity performance, and any DAX pullback could test nearby support levels in the pair. USD/JPY could see yen strengthening if equity markets turn lower and safe-haven demand increases. Traders should watch for confirmation signals in both equity and forex markets, as a sentiment shift in the DAX may catalyze broader repositioning across major currency pairs.
EURUSD
USDJPY
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Marketaux
The US dollar faces potential headwinds after data revealed foreign holdings of US Treasuries declined by $88.4 billion in December 2025, falling from a peak of $9.36 trillion in November to $9.27 trillion. This represents the largest monthly decline since late 2022, raising concerns about waning foreign appetite for US government debt. While the drop may appear modest relative to the total holdings, the magnitude of the single-month outflow signals a notable shift in global capital flows. Reduced foreign demand for Treasuries can weigh on the dollar by diminishing inflows of foreign capital into US-denominated assets. Traders should monitor whether this marks the beginning of a sustained trend or a one-off adjustment following the November peak. If foreign central banks and sovereign wealth funds continue reducing exposure, upward pressure on US yields could emerge alongside dollar weakness, particularly against safe-haven currencies like JPY and CHF. Near-term, the DXY index may test key support levels as markets digest the implications for US fiscal sustainability and global reserve diversification trends.
EURUSD
USDJPY
USDCHF
GBPUSD
Sentiment:
Negative
Source: Finnhub
