USD weakness expected as Goldman forecasts 85K NFP vs 113K consensus

Goldman Sachs projects June non-farm payrolls at just 85,000, significantly below the market consensus of 113,000, potentially triggering USD weakness across major pairs. The investment bank cites softer big data signals, immigration policy changes, and federal layoffs as key factors weighing on employment growth. The unemployment rate is expected to edge higher while wage growth remains steady but set to decelerate further. This below-consensus forecast, if realized, could prompt the Federal Reserve to reassess its monetary policy stance, potentially delaying future rate hikes. Markets are already pricing in increased dovishness, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD positioned for potential upside moves. A significantly weaker NFP print could accelerate dollar selling, particularly against safe-haven currencies. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility around the release, with key support levels for the dollar index likely to be tested.