GBPUSD Bearish

Analysis Price: 1.3746 (Updated: 2 July 2025, 04:05 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for GBPUSD showing a predominantly bearish bias with 62% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish Medium Confidence High Risk

Market Consensus:

38% Long

62% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a medium confidence bearish bias for GBPUSD (signal strength: 24%). Supporting factors include: Retail sentiment is 70% bearish; GBP is showing relative weakness against USD (diff: 11%). Risk assessment for this trade is high. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

30% 70%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Bearish sentiment with 70% of traders holding short positions. The market has a negative bias, but watch for signs of exhaustion if this percentage increases further.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 1.3788 0.31% ↑

Analysis Price: 1.3746

Support Levels

S1: 1.3703 0.31% ↓

Market Regime:

Uptrend

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

70%

Price Position Analysis

Price is between support at 1.3703 (0.31% below analysis price) and resistance at 1.3788 (0.31% above), with slightly closer proximity to resistance. Watch for rejection confirmation at resistance or break above.

Chart Pattern Analysis

95%

Symmetric Triangle

Reliability:

95%

Detected: Jul 1, 08:25

89%

Bearish Flag

Reliability:

89%

Detected: Jul 2, 00:45

67%

Morning Star

Reliability:

67%

Detected: Jul 1, 23:11

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Mixed pattern signals detected, suggesting conflicting technical factors. The most reliable pattern is a neutral Symmetric Triangle on the H1 timeframe with 95% historical reliability. Multiple timeframes showing pattern confirmation increases the reliability of the signal.

High Probability Zones

No high probability zones detected for GBPUSD at this time.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

86.0

Volatility Regime:

Low

Volatility Level:

12%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

GBPUSD is exhibiting low volatility (12 percentile) with an expected daily range of just 86.0 pips. This reduced movement typically indicates consolidation or indecision in the market. Consider tighter stop losses but be aware that breakout potential increases after periods of low volatility.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with GBPUSD

EURUSD

0.89

GBPCAD

0.88

EURGBP

-0.85

AUDUSD

0.82

GBPAUD

0.82

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how GBPUSD correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

GBPUSD shows strong positive correlation with: EURUSD, GBPCAD, AUDUSD, GBPAUD. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

GBPUSD shows strong negative correlation with: EURGBP. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

GBP

-0.59

Weak

USD

-0.90

Very-weak

Relative Strength:

0.31

Bullish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

GBP is moderately stronger than USD on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of 0.31. This suggests a mild bullish bias for GBPUSD. Monitor for additional confirmation signals before entering a long position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on GBPUSD to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.