GBPNZD Bearish

Analysis Price: 2.2880 (Updated: 17 August 2025, 12:47 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for GBPNZD showing a predominantly bearish bias with 69% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish High Confidence Medium Risk

Market Consensus:

31% Long

69% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a high confidence bearish bias for GBPNZD (signal strength: 37%). Supporting factors include: Retail sentiment is 75% bearish; GBP is showing relative weakness against NZD (diff: 12%). Risk assessment for this trade is medium. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

25% 75%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Extremely bearish sentiment with 75% of traders holding short positions. This extreme positioning could indicate a potential contrarian long opportunity as the market may be oversold.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 2.2912 0.14% ↑

Analysis Price: 2.2880

Support Levels

S1: 2.2681 0.87% ↓

Market Regime:

Uptrend

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

75%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near resistance at 2.2912 (0.14% above analysis price) with support at 2.2681 (0.87% below). This position near resistance could present a potential selling opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

94%

Hammer

Reliability:

94%

Detected: Aug 17, 12:33

86%

Symmetric Triangle

Reliability:

86%

Detected: Aug 16, 15:50

54%

Shooting Star

Reliability:

54%

Detected: Aug 16, 20:05

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Mixed pattern signals detected, suggesting conflicting technical factors. The most reliable pattern is a bullish Hammer on the H4 timeframe with 94% historical reliability. This pattern is currently only confirmed on the H4 timeframe.

High Probability Zones

Support Zone

93%

Zone Level:

2.2500

analysis price:

2.2880

Distance:

1.66%

Confluence Factors:

Hammer 127.2% Extension

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is approaching a high probability (93%) support zone at 2.2500, currently 1.66% away. Consider preparing a buy strategy as price approaches this level, watching for confirmation signals.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

65.0

Volatility Regime:

Normal

Volatility Level:

51%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

GBPNZD is showing normal volatility (51 percentile) with an expected daily range of 65.0 pips. This represents average market conditions conducive to standard trading strategies. Standard position sizing and stop loss parameters are appropriate.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with GBPNZD

GBPCHF

0.80

EURGBP

-0.75

EURNZD

0.73

AUDNZD

0.71

NZDCHF

-0.70

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how GBPNZD correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

GBPNZD shows strong positive correlation with: GBPCHF, EURNZD, AUDNZD. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

GBPNZD shows strong negative correlation with: EURGBP, NZDCHF. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

GBP

-0.43

Weak

NZD

-0.08

Neutral

Relative Strength:

-0.35

Bearish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

NZD is moderately stronger than GBP on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -0.35. This suggests a mild bearish bias for GBPNZD. Monitor for additional confirmation signals before entering a short position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on GBPNZD to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.