US NFP Preview: Market Positioned for 185K Jobs, Distribution Key

Markets are bracing for Friday's US Non-Farm Payrolls report with consensus expecting 185,000 new jobs for July, though forecast distribution reveals significant uncertainty. The range of estimates spans from 140K to 230K, with the majority clustered between 170K-200K, suggesting potential for outsized market reactions if data deviates significantly. A stronger-than-expected print above 220K could reinforce dollar strength and push major pairs like EUR/USD below 1.0800 support. Conversely, a disappointing sub-150K reading might trigger dollar weakness and fuel rate cut speculation. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.6%, while average hourly earnings are forecast at 0.3% MoM. Given the Federal Reserve's data-dependent stance and recent hawkish pause, this NFP report carries extra weight for determining near-term monetary policy expectations and forex positioning across major pairs.