USD/JPY: Sell Bias Grows as Japan Intervention Speculation Resurfaces

USD/JPY continues to trade at elevated levels on March 13, 2026, with the pair reaching multi-year highs amid the broader dollar rally. However, speculative positioning data reveals a growing majority sell bias as traders anticipate potential intervention by Japanese authorities. Renewed intervention talk has emerged after officials signaled discomfort with the pace of yen depreciation, echoing similar rhetoric that preceded past Bank of Japan market operations. The pair's strength has been driven by widening US-Japan yield differentials, but risk assets including the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are showing signs of strain, which could trigger safe-haven yen demand. Gold's continued strength at elevated levels also suggests underlying market anxiety. Key resistance remains at recent highs, while support could materialize quickly if intervention materializes. Traders should exercise caution with USD/JPY longs, as the risk-reward profile is increasingly skewed to the downside given the rising probability of coordinated yen-buying operations by Japanese monetary authorities.