AUD/USD Slides as RBA Rate Cut Expectations Mount to 75% Probability

AUD/USD has declined 0.5% to 0.6420 as markets dramatically repriced Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut expectations, with swap markets now showing a 75% probability of easing this year versus 40% last month. The shift follows weaker-than-expected Australian employment data and concerns about China's slowing growth impacting commodity demand. Iron ore prices falling below $100/ton have added pressure on the commodity-linked currency. Technical analysis shows AUD/USD breaking below the key 0.6450 support level, opening the path toward 0.6380 (June lows). The 200-day moving average at 0.6485 now acts as resistance. With the RBA's next meeting approaching, any dovish signals could accelerate AUD weakness. Traders are positioning for potential moves toward 0.6350 if rate cut expectations solidify, while any hawkish surprises could trigger a relief rally back above 0.6500.