GBPAUD Bearish

Analysis Price: 2.0134 (Updated: 16 November 2025, 08:41 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for GBPAUD showing a predominantly bearish bias with 69% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Raw trader sentiment shows 58% long, 42% short. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish Medium Confidence Medium Risk

Market Consensus:

31% Long

69% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a medium confidence bearish bias for GBPAUD (signal strength: 38%). Supporting factors include: Technical patterns identified: Bearish Rectangle (D1). Contradicting factors: Retail sentiment is 60% bullish. Risk assessment for this trade is medium. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (58% long / 42% short). The overall bearish bias (69%) mentioned in the page header represents our analytical consensus based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.

LONG SHORT

58% 42%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Neutral sentiment with a balanced distribution between long and short positions. This suggests indecision in the market, which could precede a significant move once a clear direction emerges.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 2.0223 0.44% ↑

Analysis Price: 2.0134

Support Levels

S1: 2.0065 0.34% ↓

Market Regime:

Range

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

55%

Price Position Analysis

Price is between support at 2.0065 (0.34% below analysis price) and resistance at 2.0223 (0.44% above), with slightly closer proximity to support. Watch for bounce confirmation at support or break below.

Chart Pattern Analysis

92%

Bullish Engulfing

Reliability:

92%

Detected: Nov 16, 05:22

76%

Symmetric Triangle

Reliability:

76%

Detected: Nov 16, 08:57

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Mixed pattern signals detected, suggesting conflicting technical factors. The most reliable pattern is a bullish Bullish Engulfing on the D1 timeframe with 92% historical reliability. This pattern is currently only confirmed on the D1 timeframe.

High Probability Zones

Support Zone

95%

Zone Level:

2.0105

analysis price:

2.0134

Distance:

0.14%

Confluence Factors:

Bullish Engulfing 62% Retracement

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Resistance Zone

95%

Zone Level:

2.0151

analysis price:

2.0134

Distance:

0.08%

Confluence Factors:

Bearish Engulfing 50% Retracement

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is extremely close to a high probability (95%) support zone at 2.0105. This presents a potential buying opportunity with stop loss slightly below the zone. Multiple confluence factors strengthen this level's significance.

Multiple high probability zones exist for this pair, indicating a well-structured technical environment with clear levels for trading decisions.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

86.0

Volatility Regime:

Normal

Volatility Level:

31%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

GBPAUD is showing normal volatility (31 percentile) with an expected daily range of 86.0 pips. This represents average market conditions conducive to standard trading strategies. Standard position sizing and stop loss parameters are appropriate.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with GBPAUD

AUDJPY

-0.89

GBPNZD

0.88

GBPUSD

0.86

AUDNZD

-0.81

AUDCHF

-0.75

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how GBPAUD correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

GBPAUD shows strong positive correlation with: GBPNZD, GBPUSD. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

GBPAUD shows strong negative correlation with: AUDJPY, AUDNZD, AUDCHF. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

GBP

-0.31

Weak

AUD

0.96

Very-strong

Relative Strength:

-1.27

Bearish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

AUD is significantly stronger than GBP on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -1.27. This suggests a strong bearish bias for GBPAUD. With AUD showing absolute strength and GBP showing absolute weakness, this is an ideal scenario for a short position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on GBPAUD to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.