NZDUSD Bearish

Analysis Price: 0.5875 (Updated: 17 May 2025, 15:39 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for NZDUSD showing predominantly bearish sentiment with 91% of traders in short positions. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish High Confidence Low Risk

Market Consensus:

9% Long

91% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a high confidence bearish bias for NZDUSD (signal strength: 83%). Supporting factors include: High probability (95%) resistance zone detected at 0.5956; NZD is showing relative weakness against USD (diff: 100%). Contradicting factors: Retail sentiment is 63% bullish. Risk assessment for this trade is low. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

63% 37%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Bullish sentiment with 63% of traders holding long positions. The market has a positive bias, but watch for signs of exhaustion if this percentage increases further.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 0.5941 1.12% ↑

Analysis Price: 0.5875

Support Levels

S1: 0.5846 0.50% ↓

Market Regime:

Downtrend

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

60%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near support at 0.5846 (0.50% below analysis price) with resistance at 0.5941 (1.12% above). This position near support could present a potential buying opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

No chart patterns detected for NZDUSD at this time.

High Probability Zones

Resistance Zone

95%

Zone Level:

0.5956

analysis price:

0.5875

Distance:

1.37%

Confluence Factors:

Evening Star 38% Retracement

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Support Zone

75%

Zone Level:

0.5560

analysis price:

0.5875

Distance:

5.36%

Confluence Factors:

Double Bottom 162% Extension Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is approaching a high probability (95%) resistance zone at 0.5956, currently 1.37% away. Consider preparing a sell strategy as price approaches this level, watching for confirmation signals.

Multiple high probability zones exist for this pair, indicating a well-structured technical environment with clear levels for trading decisions.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

22.0

Volatility Regime:

Normal

Volatility Level:

31%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

NZDUSD is showing normal volatility (31 percentile) with an expected daily range of 22.0 pips. This represents average market conditions conducive to standard trading strategies. Standard position sizing and stop loss parameters are appropriate.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with NZDUSD

EURUSD

0.90

AUDUSD

0.89

USDJPY

-0.86

USDCAD

-0.84

NZDCAD

0.72

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how NZDUSD correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

NZDUSD shows strong positive correlation with: EURUSD, AUDUSD, NZDCAD. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

NZDUSD shows strong negative correlation with: USDJPY, USDCAD. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

NZD

-0.64

Weak

USD

-0.24

Neutral

Relative Strength:

-0.40

Bearish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

USD is moderately stronger than NZD on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -0.40. This suggests a mild bearish bias for NZDUSD. Monitor for additional confirmation signals before entering a short position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on NZDUSD to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.