AUDUSD Bearish

Analysis Price: 0.6539 (Updated: 16 November 2025, 16:41 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for AUDUSD showing a predominantly bearish bias with 62% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish High Confidence High Risk

Market Consensus:

38% Long

62% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a high confidence bearish bias for AUDUSD (signal strength: 24%). Supporting factors include: AUD is showing relative weakness against USD (diff: 49%). Risk assessment for this trade is high. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

45% 55%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Neutral sentiment with a balanced distribution between long and short positions. This suggests indecision in the market, which could precede a significant move once a clear direction emerges.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 0.6551 0.19% ↑

Analysis Price: 0.6539

Support Levels

S1: 0.6504 0.53% ↓

Market Regime:

Range

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

50%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near resistance at 0.6551 (0.19% above analysis price) with support at 0.6504 (0.53% below). This position near resistance could present a potential selling opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

No chart patterns detected for AUDUSD at this time.

High Probability Zones

Resistance Zone

95%

Zone Level:

0.6551

analysis price:

0.6539

Distance:

0.19%

Confluence Factors:

Shooting Star 24% Retracement Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Resistance Zone

95%

Zone Level:

0.6551

analysis price:

0.6539

Distance:

0.19%

Confluence Factors:

Head and Shoulders 24% Retracement

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is extremely close to a high probability (95%) resistance zone at 0.6551. This presents a potential selling opportunity with stop loss slightly above the zone. Multiple confluence factors strengthen this level's significance.

Multiple high probability zones exist for this pair, indicating a well-structured technical environment with clear levels for trading decisions.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

90.0

Volatility Regime:

Low

Volatility Level:

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

AUDUSD is exhibiting low volatility (7 percentile) with an expected daily range of just 90.0 pips. This reduced movement typically indicates consolidation or indecision in the market. Consider tighter stop losses but be aware that breakout potential increases after periods of low volatility.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with AUDUSD

AUDNZD

0.84

AUDCHF

0.81

GBPUSD

0.73

EURUSD

0.72

USDJPY

-0.71

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how AUDUSD correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

AUDUSD shows strong positive correlation with: AUDNZD, AUDCHF, GBPUSD, EURUSD. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

AUDUSD shows strong negative correlation with: USDJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

AUD

-0.92

Very-weak

USD

0.81

Very-strong

Relative Strength:

-1.73

Bearish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

USD is significantly stronger than AUD on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -1.73. This suggests a strong bearish bias for AUDUSD. With USD showing absolute strength and AUD showing absolute weakness, this is an ideal scenario for a short position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on AUDUSD to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.