The Signal Overview at the top weighs five of the readings above into one score, and the setups worth acting on are the ones where the factors that voted agree. Every pair ranked: Signals. Today's plans: Daily Forecast.
AUD/USD Analysis
Comprehensive analysis for AUDUSD showing a clear bearish bias (high confidence) with 68% bearish signal balance across the weighted factors. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.
View AUDUSD sentiment overview
AI analyst comment
AUDUSD has fallen from 0.72378 with every bounce sold. It broke the 0.7004 floor on Sep 29 and printed a 0.69037 low on Oct 1 before Oct 2 lifted to 0.69549. RSI 31.9 is near oversold, but MACD keeps widening below its signal with a -0.0021 histogram, so the selling is not exhausted. Retail is 69% long, a moderately crowded book that argues against the bounce. Reclaiming 0.69946-0.70239 would signal a base, while a break of 0.69037 exposes the 0.6900 handle.
Signal Overview
Bearish
High Confidence
Very high Volatility
Signal Balance:
32% Long
68% Short
Signal strength
36%
Factor agreement
100% of weight
Factor detail
Sentiment
21%
Strength
25%
S/R
33%
HP Zones
21%
Signal Analysis:
The analysis indicates a high confidence bearish bias for AUDUSD (signal strength: 36%). Supporting factors include: Price sits between support at 0.69220 (0.45% below) and resistance at 0.69755 (0.32% above) with no clear edge; the analysis reads the structure as bearish; AUD is showing relative weakness against USD (diff: 43%); Retail leans long (69%): a mild contrarian headwind. Volatility on this pair is currently very high.
AI Daily Forecast
NO PLAN The AI reads AUDUSD as directionless for this session, so it publishes no entry, stop or target.
US Non-Farm Payrolls at 08:30 NY: no directional plan. The short-AUD theme is carried by AUDJPY, AUDCAD and GBPAUD instead.
Not the signal above, which is a score refreshed every three hours: this plan is written once a night, for one session. The full board.
Sentiment Analysis
Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (69% long / 31% short). The overall bearish bias (68%) mentioned in the page header represents our signal balance based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.
LONG
SHORT
69%
31%
Historical Sentiment
Sentiment Interpretation
Retail leans long (69%). Our signals read positioning contrarian and weigh it by how one-sided it is: near 60/40 it barely registers, and its weight grows with the imbalance - full strength only comes near a true 90/10 extreme.
Price and retail positioning
The same retail long % as above, over the whole archive and drawn against the price. Candles from 15 minutes to monthly.
Retail
Open AUD/USD on TradingViewCharts drawn with TradingView Lightweight Charts™ · Copyright (с) 2025 TradingView, Inc.
Daily candles from our broker price feed, 2 October 2023 to 2 October 2026 (bid prices; the day closes at 17:00 New York); weekly and monthly candles are built from them. Drag to pan; scroll, drag the time axis or pinch to zoom. On a touch screen, drag the price scale with one finger to move the chart up or down, with two to stretch it, and double-tap it to reset.
The 15-minute, hourly and four-hour candles come from the same feed and load when you pick them; older ones load by themselves as you scroll left, back to the start of the archive. Four-hour candles open at 17:00, 21:00, 01:00, 05:00, 09:00 and 13:00 New York, as on TradingView. Their last candle is still forming and refreshes about every minute while the view is open. On those views the retail positioning is drawn as steps: it is a snapshot every 3 hours, not a minute-by-minute reading.
Retail positioning: daily snapshots since 12 May 2025, 464 so far · latest 69% long at 2 Oct 21:00 UTC; on the weekly and monthly views it is the average of the trading days. From 60% on one side it counts as crowded and from 75% as extreme, the same three states the Trade Panel shows. The positioning is refreshed every 3 hours on weekdays, not real-time.
Want this retail positioning on your MT5 charts? The Trade Panel puts it inside MetaTrader 5 for all 29 markets, next to our signal and the AI plan of the day, and the Chart Panel, new in 1.8, draws them on the chart you trade. One license covers both panels.
Discover the panelSupport & Resistance Analysis
Arithmetic pivots for this pair are pre-filled in the AUDUSD pivot point calculator.
Analysis Price:
0.69533
Market price now0.69557Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
Between S1 0.69220 (33.6 pips below) and R1 0.69755 (19.9 pips above)
Resistance Levels
R1:
0.69755
0.32%
↑
R2:
0.69946
0.59%
↑
R3:
0.70239
1.02%
↑
R4:
0.70775
1.79%
↑
Support Levels
S1:
0.69220
0.45%
↓
S2:
0.69037
0.71%
↓
S3:
0.69000
0.77%
↓
Market Regime:
Downtrend
AI Bias:
Bearish
Price Position Analysis
Price is between support at 0.69220 (0.45% below analysis price) and resistance at 0.69755 (0.32% above), with slightly closer proximity to resistance. Watch for rejection confirmation at resistance or break above.
Chart Pattern Analysis
High Probability Zones
Resistance Zone
61%
Zone Level:
0.69755
Analysis Price:
0.69533
Distance:
0.32%
Market price now0.69557Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
19.9 pips below the zone
Confluence Factors:
Context (not scored):
Support Zone
56%
Zone Band (2 levels):
0.69000 – 0.69037
Analysis Price:
0.69533
Distance:
0.71%
Market price now0.69557Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
51.9 pips above the zone
Confluence Factors:
Context (not scored):
Support Zone
51%
Zone Level:
0.69220
Analysis Price:
0.69533
Distance:
0.45%
Market price now0.69557Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
33.6 pips above the zone
Confluence Factors:
Context (not scored):
Resistance Zone
51%
Zone Level:
0.69946
Analysis Price:
0.69533
Distance:
0.59%
Market price now0.69557Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
38.9 pips below the zone
Confluence Factors:
Context (not scored):
Resistance Zone
51%
Zone Level:
0.70239
Analysis Price:
0.69533
Distance:
1.02%
Market price now0.69557Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
68.2 pips below the zone
Confluence Factors:
Context (not scored):
High Probability Zones Interpretation
Price is approaching the strongest resistance zone we scored for this pair, at 0.69755 (confluence score 61%), currently 0.32% away. The score comes from 2 factors converging here: a 21.4% retracement of the 30-day range and 2 distinct tests in the last 30 days.
5 zones were scored for this pair: 2 below the analysis price and 3 above it.
Volatility Analysis
Select Timeframe:
Daily Range (pips):
47.4
Volatility Regime:
Extreme
Volatility Level:
100%
10-Day ATR Trend
Volatility Interpretation (D1)
AUDUSD is currently showing extreme volatility (100 percentile) with an expected range of 47.4 pips per session. This indicates potentially rapid price movements that create both opportunity and risk. Consider wider stop losses (1.5-2x normal size) and reduced position sizes to manage the elevated risk.
Correlation Analysis
Top Correlations with AUDUSD
AUDCAD
0.75
NZDUSD
0.72
EURAUD
-0.72
EURUSD
0.69
GBPAUD
-0.68
Correlation Interpretation
AUDUSD shows strong positive correlation with: AUDCAD, NZDUSD. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.
AUDUSD shows strong negative correlation with: EURAUD. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).
Currency Strength Analysis
Select Timeframe:
Weighted across timeframes the way our signal reads it (daily counts most), AUD vs USD comes out at -0.43 — bearish for AUDUSD. Individual tabs can disagree with it: shorter windows swing more.
AUD
-0.36
Weak
vs
USD
0.49
Strong
Relative Strength:
-0.85
Bearish Bias
Currency Strength Interpretation (D1)
USD is significantly stronger than AUD on the D1 timeframe, with a relative strength of -0.85. This suggests a strong bearish bias for AUDUSD. With USD showing absolute strength and AUD showing absolute weakness, this is an ideal scenario for a short position.
How to Use This Analysis
Other Currency Pairs
EURUSD
Bearish (Medium)
GBPUSD
Bearish (Low)
USDJPY
Neutral (Low)
USDCHF
Neutral (Low)
USDCAD
Bullish (Medium)
NZDUSD
Bearish (High)
EURGBP
Bearish (Medium)
EURJPY
Bearish (Medium)
EURCHF
Bearish (High)
EURAUD
Bearish (Medium)
EURCAD
Bearish (Medium)
EURNZD
Neutral (Low)
GBPJPY
Bearish (Low)
GBPCHF
Bearish (Medium)
GBPAUD
Bullish (Low)
GBPCAD
Bullish (Low)
GBPNZD
Bullish (Medium)
AUDJPY
Bearish (Medium)
CADJPY
Bearish (Low)
NZDJPY
Bearish (Medium)
CHFJPY
Bullish (Low)
AUDCHF
Bearish (Medium)
AUDCAD
Bullish (Medium)
AUDNZD
Bullish (Medium)
NZDCHF
Bearish (Medium)
NZDCAD
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CADCHF
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XAUUSD
Neutral (Low)
