NZD/USD Rebounds 0.4% as Markets Position for CPI Data

NZD/USD has staged a 0.4% recovery to 0.6120, bouncing from recent lows as traders position ahead of crucial New Zealand inflation data that could influence the RBNZ's August policy decision. The kiwi dollar found support at 0.6080 after last week's 1.2% decline, with technical buyers emerging at oversold levels. Market expectations center on the upcoming CPI release, with economists forecasting a continued moderation in price pressures that could justify further RBNZ easing. Current pricing suggests a 65% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the August meeting, though stronger-than-expected inflation could shift these odds significantly. Technical resistance appears at 0.6150, coinciding with the 50-day moving average, while support holds at 0.6080. The pair's near-term trajectory will likely depend on whether CPI data confirms the RBNZ's confidence in returning inflation to target range.