USDCAD Bearish

Analysis Price: 1.3672 (Updated: 27 December 2025, 19:08 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for USDCAD showing a predominantly bearish bias with 60% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Raw trader sentiment shows 70% long, 30% short. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish Medium Confidence High Risk

Market Consensus:

40% Long

60% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a medium confidence bearish bias for USDCAD (signal strength: 21%). Supporting factors include: High probability (95%) resistance zone detected at 1.3743. Contradicting factors: Technical patterns identified: Ascending Triangle (D1); Retail sentiment is 70% bullish. Risk assessment for this trade is high. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (70% long / 30% short). The overall bearish bias (60%) mentioned in the page header represents our analytical consensus based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.

LONG SHORT

70% 30%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Bullish sentiment with 70% of traders holding long positions. The market has a positive bias, but watch for signs of exhaustion if this percentage increases further.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 1.3801 0.95% ↑

Analysis Price: 1.3672

Support Levels

S1: 1.3643 0.21% ↓

Market Regime:

Downtrend

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

70%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near support at 1.3643 (0.21% below analysis price) with resistance at 1.3801 (0.95% above). This position near support could present a potential buying opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

No chart patterns detected for USDCAD at this time.

High Probability Zones

Resistance Zone

91%

Zone Level:

1.4013

analysis price:

1.3672

Distance:

2.50%

Confluence Factors:

Head and Shoulders 127% Extension

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

A high probability (91%) resistance zone exists at 1.4013, currently 2.50% away from price. Keep this level on watch for potential future selling opportunities if price moves higher.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

26.0

Volatility Regime:

Normal

Volatility Level:

65%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

USDCAD is showing normal volatility (65 percentile) with an expected daily range of 26.0 pips. This represents average market conditions conducive to standard trading strategies. Standard position sizing and stop loss parameters are appropriate.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with USDCAD

EURCAD

0.82

GBPUSD

-0.71

USDJPY

0.71

AUDUSD

-0.70

EURUSD

-0.67

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how USDCAD correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

USDCAD shows strong positive correlation with: EURCAD, USDJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

USDCAD shows strong negative correlation with: GBPUSD, AUDUSD. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

USD

-0.54

Weak

CAD

-0.51

Weak

Relative Strength:

-0.03

Neutral Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

USD and CAD show similar strength levels on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -0.03. This indicates a neutral bias for USDCAD and suggests range-bound trading conditions may be more likely.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on USDCAD to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.