USDCAD Bearish

Analysis Price: 1.3833 (Updated: 31 July 2025, 09:30 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for USDCAD showing a predominantly bearish bias with 73% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

Select Currency Pair

Signal Overview

Bearish High Confidence Low Risk

Market Consensus:

27% Long

73% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a high confidence bearish bias for USDCAD (signal strength: 45%). Supporting factors include: High probability (95%) resistance zone detected at 1.4; USD is showing relative weakness against CAD (diff: 47%); Retail sentiment is 60% bearish. Risk assessment for this trade is low. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

40% 60%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Bearish sentiment with 60% of traders holding short positions. The market has a negative bias, but watch for signs of exhaustion if this percentage increases further.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 1.3845 0.09% ↑

Analysis Price: 1.3833

Support Levels

S1: 1.3759 0.54% ↓

Market Regime:

Uptrend

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

70%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near resistance at 1.3845 (0.09% above analysis price) with support at 1.3759 (0.54% below). This position near resistance could present a potential selling opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

No chart patterns detected for USDCAD at this time.

High Probability Zones

Support Zone

95%

Zone Level:

1.3781

analysis price:

1.3833

Distance:

0.37%

Confluence Factors:

Double Bottom 24% Retracement

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Support Zone

75%

Zone Level:

1.3140

analysis price:

1.3833

Distance:

5.01%

Confluence Factors:

Morning Star 162% Extension

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Support Zone

75%

Zone Level:

1.3233

analysis price:

1.3833

Distance:

4.34%

Confluence Factors:

Inverse Head and Shoulders 127% Extension Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is extremely close to a high probability (95%) support zone at 1.3781. This presents a potential buying opportunity with stop loss slightly below the zone. Multiple confluence factors strengthen this level's significance.

Multiple high probability zones exist for this pair, indicating a well-structured technical environment with clear levels for trading decisions.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

32.0

Volatility Regime:

Normal

Volatility Level:

56%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

USDCAD is showing normal volatility (56 percentile) with an expected daily range of 32.0 pips. This represents average market conditions conducive to standard trading strategies. Standard position sizing and stop loss parameters are appropriate.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with USDCAD

NZDCAD

0.76

EURCAD

0.73

GBPUSD

-0.70

CADCHF

-0.70

AUDCAD

0.69

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how USDCAD correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

USDCAD shows strong positive correlation with: NZDCAD, EURCAD. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

USDCAD shows strong negative correlation with: GBPUSD, CADCHF. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

USD

0.30

Strong

CAD

0.54

Strong

Relative Strength:

-0.24

Neutral Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

CAD is moderately stronger than USD on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -0.24. This suggests a mild bearish bias for USDCAD. Monitor for additional confirmation signals before entering a short position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on USDCAD to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.