USDCAD Bullish

Analysis Price: 1.3836 (Updated: 15 September 2025, 05:40 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for USDCAD showing a predominantly bullish bias with 71% bullish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Raw trader sentiment shows 46% long, 54% short. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bullish High Confidence Medium Risk

Market Consensus:

71% Long

29% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a high confidence bullish bias for USDCAD (signal strength: 42%). Supporting factors include: USD is showing relative strength against CAD (diff: 42%); Technical patterns identified: Inverse Head and Shoulders (H4), Bullish Flag (D1). Risk assessment for this trade is medium. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (46% long / 54% short). The overall bullish bias (71%) mentioned in the page header represents our analytical consensus based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.

LONG SHORT

46% 54%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Neutral sentiment with a balanced distribution between long and short positions. This suggests indecision in the market, which could precede a significant move once a clear direction emerges.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 1.3890 0.39% ↑

Analysis Price: 1.3836

Support Levels

S1: 1.3759 0.56% ↓

Market Regime:

Range

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

55%

Price Position Analysis

Price is between support at 1.3759 (0.56% below analysis price) and resistance at 1.3890 (0.39% above), with slightly closer proximity to resistance. Watch for rejection confirmation at resistance or break above.

Chart Pattern Analysis

71%

Double Bottom

Reliability:

71%

Detected: Sep 14, 11:25

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly bullish patterns detected across timeframes, suggesting upward momentum. The most reliable pattern is a bullish Double Bottom on the H1 timeframe with 71% historical reliability. This pattern is currently only confirmed on the H1 timeframe.

High Probability Zones

Resistance Zone

95%

Zone Level:

1.3859

analysis price:

1.3836

Distance:

0.17%

Confluence Factors:

Bearish Engulfing 24% Retracement Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Resistance Zone

95%

Zone Level:

1.3840

analysis price:

1.3836

Distance:

0.03%

Confluence Factors:

Double Top 38% Retracement

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is extremely close to a high probability (95%) resistance zone at 1.3859. This presents a potential selling opportunity with stop loss slightly above the zone. Multiple confluence factors strengthen this level's significance.

Multiple high probability zones exist for this pair, indicating a well-structured technical environment with clear levels for trading decisions.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

31.0

Volatility Regime:

High

Volatility Level:

87%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

USDCAD is experiencing high volatility (87 percentile) with an expected daily range of 31.0 pips. This above-average movement creates trading opportunities but requires careful risk management. Consider slightly wider stop losses and moderate position sizing.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with USDCAD

USDCHF

0.90

NZDCAD

0.79

GBPCAD

0.74

EURCAD

0.72

AUDCAD

0.72

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how USDCAD correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

USDCAD shows strong positive correlation with: USDCHF, NZDCAD, GBPCAD, EURCAD, AUDCAD. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

USD

-0.67

Weak

CAD

0.64

Strong

Relative Strength:

-1.31

Bearish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

CAD is significantly stronger than USD on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -1.31. This suggests a strong bearish bias for USDCAD. With CAD showing absolute strength and USD showing absolute weakness, this is an ideal scenario for a short position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on USDCAD to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.