USDCAD Bullish

Analysis Price: 1.3635 (Updated: 16 February 2026, 22:23 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for USDCAD showing a predominantly bullish bias with 69% bullish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bullish Medium Confidence Very high Risk

Market Consensus:

69% Long

31% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a medium confidence bullish bias for USDCAD (signal strength: 39%). Supporting factors include: High probability (95%) support zone detected at 1.3551; Retail sentiment is 60% bullish. Contradicting factors: USD is showing relative weakness against CAD (diff: 86%). Risk assessment for this trade is very high. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

62% 38%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Bullish sentiment with 62% of traders holding long positions. The market has a positive bias, but watch for signs of exhaustion if this percentage increases further.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 1.3675 0.29% ↑

Analysis Price: 1.3635

Support Levels

S1: 1.3553 0.60% ↓

Market Regime:

Range

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

55%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near resistance at 1.3675 (0.29% above analysis price) with support at 1.3553 (0.60% below). This position near resistance could present a potential selling opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

No chart patterns detected for USDCAD at this time.

High Probability Zones

Support Zone

95%

Zone Level:

1.3610

analysis price:

1.3635

Distance:

0.20%

Confluence Factors:

Bullish Engulfing 38% Retracement Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is extremely close to a high probability (95%) support zone at 1.3610. This presents a potential buying opportunity with stop loss slightly below the zone. Multiple confluence factors strengthen this level's significance.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

22.0

Volatility Regime:

Normal

Volatility Level:

35%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

USDCAD is showing normal volatility (35 percentile) with an expected daily range of 22.0 pips. This represents average market conditions conducive to standard trading strategies. Standard position sizing and stop loss parameters are appropriate.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with USDCAD

AUDUSD

-0.89

GBPCAD

0.89

NZDUSD

-0.86

CADCHF

-0.85

NZDCAD

0.76

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how USDCAD correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

USDCAD shows strong positive correlation with: GBPCAD, NZDCAD. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

USDCAD shows strong negative correlation with: AUDUSD, NZDUSD, CADCHF. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

USD

0.22

Neutral

CAD

0.13

Neutral

Relative Strength:

0.09

Neutral Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

USD and CAD show similar strength levels on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of 0.09. This indicates a neutral bias for USDCAD and suggests range-bound trading conditions may be more likely.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on USDCAD to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.