NZDJPY Bearish

Analysis Price: 85.73 (Updated: 17 May 2025, 17:48 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for NZDJPY showing predominantly bearish sentiment with 67% of traders in short positions. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish Medium Confidence Medium Risk

Market Consensus:

33% Long

67% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a medium confidence bearish bias for NZDJPY (signal strength: 34%). Supporting factors include: High probability (91%) resistance zone detected at 86.4015; NZD is showing relative weakness against JPY (diff: 24%). Contradicting factors: Technical patterns identified: Bullish Engulfing (H4); Retail sentiment is 58% bullish. Risk assessment for this trade is medium. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

58% 42%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Neutral sentiment with a balanced distribution between long and short positions. This suggests indecision in the market, which could precede a significant move once a clear direction emerges.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 87.74 2.34% ↑

Analysis Price: 85.73

Support Levels

S1: 85.06 0.78% ↓

Market Regime:

Range

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

55%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near support at 85.06 (0.78% below analysis price) with resistance at 87.74 (2.34% above). This position near support could present a potential buying opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

72%

Bullish Engulfing

Reliability:

72%

Detected: May 16, 22:14

54%

Rectangle

Reliability:

54%

Detected: May 16, 19:14

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Mixed pattern signals detected, suggesting conflicting technical factors. The most reliable pattern is a bullish Bullish Engulfing on the H4 timeframe with 72% historical reliability. Multiple timeframes showing pattern confirmation increases the reliability of the signal.

High Probability Zones

Resistance Zone

91%

Zone Level:

86.40

analysis price:

85.73

Distance:

0.78%

Confluence Factors:

Double Top 50% Retracement

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Resistance Zone

90%

Zone Level:

87.50

analysis price:

85.73

Distance:

2.06%

Confluence Factors:

Double Top 38.2% Retracement Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Resistance Zone

75%

Zone Level:

91.15

analysis price:

85.73

Distance:

6.32%

Confluence Factors:

Shooting Star 127% Extension Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is approaching a high probability (91%) resistance zone at 86.40, currently 0.78% away. Consider preparing a sell strategy as price approaches this level, watching for confirmation signals.

Multiple high probability zones exist for this pair, indicating a well-structured technical environment with clear levels for trading decisions.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

0.6

Volatility Regime:

High

Volatility Level:

87%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

NZDJPY is experiencing high volatility (87 percentile) with an expected daily range of 0.6 pips. This above-average movement creates trading opportunities but requires careful risk management. Consider slightly wider stop losses and moderate position sizing.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with NZDJPY

NZDCHF

0.88

AUDJPY

0.82

USDJPY

0.73

GBPNZD

-0.65

NZDUSD

0.64

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how NZDJPY correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

NZDJPY shows strong positive correlation with: NZDCHF, AUDJPY, USDJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

NZD

-0.21

Neutral

JPY

0.68

Strong

Relative Strength:

-0.89

Bearish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

JPY is significantly stronger than NZD on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -0.89. This suggests a strong bearish bias for NZDJPY. However, this bias is primarily driven by the strength of JPY.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on NZDJPY to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.