NZDJPY Bearish

Analysis Price: 92.62 (Updated: 16 February 2026, 22:23 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for NZDJPY showing a predominantly bearish bias with 68% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Raw trader sentiment shows 56% long, 44% short. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish Medium Confidence Medium Risk

Market Consensus:

32% Long

68% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a medium confidence bearish bias for NZDJPY (signal strength: 36%). Supporting factors include: High probability (95%) resistance zone detected at 94.2659. Contradicting factors: NZD is showing relative strength against JPY (diff: 59%). Risk assessment for this trade is medium. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (56% long / 44% short). The overall bearish bias (68%) mentioned in the page header represents our analytical consensus based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.

LONG SHORT

56% 44%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Neutral sentiment with a balanced distribution between long and short positions. This suggests indecision in the market, which could precede a significant move once a clear direction emerges.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 92.86 0.26% ↑

Analysis Price: 92.62

Support Levels

S1: 91.98 0.69% ↓

Market Regime:

Downtrend

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

60%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near resistance at 92.86 (0.26% above analysis price) with support at 91.98 (0.69% below). This position near resistance could present a potential selling opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

84%

Doji

Reliability:

84%

Detected: Feb 16, 04:16

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly neutral patterns detected, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. The most reliable pattern is a neutral Doji on the H4 timeframe with 84% historical reliability. This pattern is currently only confirmed on the H4 timeframe.

High Probability Zones

Resistance Zone

95%

Zone Level:

94.00

analysis price:

92.62

Distance:

1.49%

Confluence Factors:

Shooting Star 61.8% Retracement Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Support Zone

95%

Zone Level:

92.00

analysis price:

92.62

Distance:

0.67%

Confluence Factors:

Hammer 78.6% Extension Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Resistance Zone

85%

Zone Level:

95.00

analysis price:

92.62

Distance:

2.57%

Confluence Factors:

Shooting Star 50% Retracement Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is approaching a high probability (95%) resistance zone at 94.00, currently 1.49% away. Consider preparing a sell strategy as price approaches this level, watching for confirmation signals.

Multiple high probability zones exist for this pair, indicating a well-structured technical environment with clear levels for trading decisions.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

0.6

Volatility Regime:

Low

Volatility Level:

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

NZDJPY is exhibiting low volatility (4 percentile) with an expected daily range of just 0.6 pips. This reduced movement typically indicates consolidation or indecision in the market. Consider tighter stop losses but be aware that breakout potential increases after periods of low volatility.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with NZDJPY

USDJPY

0.90

NZDUSD

0.86

EURNZD

-0.86

GBPJPY

0.81

CADJPY

0.73

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how NZDJPY correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

NZDJPY shows strong positive correlation with: USDJPY, NZDUSD, GBPJPY, CADJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

NZDJPY shows strong negative correlation with: EURNZD. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

NZD

-0.16

Neutral

JPY

0.70

Very-strong

Relative Strength:

-0.86

Bearish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

JPY is significantly stronger than NZD on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -0.86. This suggests a strong bearish bias for NZDJPY. However, this bias is primarily driven by the strength of JPY.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on NZDJPY to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.