USDJPY Bearish

Analysis Price: 146.98 (Updated: 1 October 2025, 16:12 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for USDJPY showing a predominantly bearish bias with 83% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Raw trader sentiment shows 66% long, 34% short. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish High Confidence Low Risk

Market Consensus:

17% Long

83% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a high confidence bearish bias for USDJPY (signal strength: 67%). Supporting factors include: High probability (95%) resistance zone detected at 147; USD is showing relative weakness against JPY (diff: 52%); Technical patterns identified: Evening Star (H4). Contradicting factors: Retail sentiment is 68% bullish. Risk assessment for this trade is low. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (66% long / 34% short). The overall bearish bias (83%) mentioned in the page header represents our analytical consensus based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.

LONG SHORT

66% 34%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Bullish sentiment with 66% of traders holding long positions. The market has a positive bias, but watch for signs of exhaustion if this percentage increases further.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 149.93 2.00% ↑

Analysis Price: 146.98

Support Levels

S1: 146.59 0.27% ↓

Market Regime:

Downtrend

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

70%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near support at 146.59 (0.27% below analysis price) with resistance at 149.93 (2.00% above). This position near support could present a potential buying opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

89%

Bullish Engulfing

Reliability:

89%

Detected: Oct 1, 06:30

70%

Hammer

Reliability:

70%

Detected: Oct 1, 14:46

58%

Shooting Star

Reliability:

58%

Detected: Sep 30, 20:59

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly bullish patterns detected across timeframes, suggesting upward momentum. The most reliable pattern is a bullish Bullish Engulfing on the H1 timeframe with 89% historical reliability. Multiple timeframes showing pattern confirmation increases the reliability of the signal.

High Probability Zones

Resistance Zone

95%

Zone Level:

148.00

analysis price:

146.98

Distance:

0.57%

Confluence Factors:

Evening Star 62% Retracement Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Support Zone

89%

Zone Level:

144.00

analysis price:

146.98

Distance:

2.15%

Confluence Factors:

Bullish Engulfing 50% Retracement

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Support Zone

77%

Zone Level:

141.14

analysis price:

146.98

Distance:

4.09%

Confluence Factors:

Bullish Engulfing 162% Extension Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is approaching a high probability (95%) resistance zone at 148.00, currently 0.57% away. Consider preparing a sell strategy as price approaches this level, watching for confirmation signals.

Multiple high probability zones exist for this pair, indicating a well-structured technical environment with clear levels for trading decisions.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

0.4

Volatility Regime:

Normal

Volatility Level:

34%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

USDJPY is showing normal volatility (34 percentile) with an expected daily range of 0.4 pips. This represents average market conditions conducive to standard trading strategies. Standard position sizing and stop loss parameters are appropriate.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with USDJPY

EURUSD

-0.83

GBPJPY

0.81

CADJPY

0.79

NZDUSD

-0.78

AUDUSD

-0.76

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how USDJPY correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

USDJPY shows strong positive correlation with: GBPJPY, CADJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

USDJPY shows strong negative correlation with: EURUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

USD

-0.32

Weak

JPY

0.93

Very-strong

Relative Strength:

-1.25

Bearish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

JPY is significantly stronger than USD on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -1.25. This suggests a strong bearish bias for USDJPY. With JPY showing absolute strength and USD showing absolute weakness, this is an ideal scenario for a short position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on USDJPY to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.