USDJPY Bullish

Analysis Price: 154.56 (Updated: 16 November 2025, 16:41 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for USDJPY showing a predominantly bullish bias with 64% bullish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Raw trader sentiment shows 39% long, 61% short. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bullish Medium Confidence Medium Risk

Market Consensus:

64% Long

36% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a medium confidence bullish bias for USDJPY (signal strength: 28%). Supporting factors include: High probability (95%) support zone detected at 153; USD is showing relative strength against JPY (diff: 15%). Contradicting factors: Retail sentiment is 61% bearish. Risk assessment for this trade is medium. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (39% long / 61% short). The overall bullish bias (64%) mentioned in the page header represents our analytical consensus based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.

LONG SHORT

39% 61%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Bearish sentiment with 61% of traders holding short positions. The market has a negative bias, but watch for signs of exhaustion if this percentage increases further.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 154.76 0.13% ↑

Analysis Price: 154.56

Support Levels

S1: 153.61 0.61% ↓

Market Regime:

Uptrend

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

65%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near resistance at 154.76 (0.13% above analysis price) with support at 153.61 (0.61% below). This position near resistance could present a potential selling opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

82%

Bearish Rectangle

Reliability:

82%

Detected: Nov 16, 16:27

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly bearish patterns detected across timeframes, suggesting downward pressure. The most reliable pattern is a bearish Bearish Rectangle on the D1 timeframe with 82% historical reliability. This pattern is currently only confirmed on the D1 timeframe.

High Probability Zones

Support Zone

95%

Zone Level:

153.00

analysis price:

154.56

Distance:

1.01%

Confluence Factors:

Hammer 127.2% Extension Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is approaching a high probability (95%) support zone at 153.00, currently 1.01% away. Consider preparing a buy strategy as price approaches this level, watching for confirmation signals.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

0.7

Volatility Regime:

Normal

Volatility Level:

63%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

USDJPY is showing normal volatility (63 percentile) with an expected daily range of 0.7 pips. This represents average market conditions conducive to standard trading strategies. Standard position sizing and stop loss parameters are appropriate.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with USDJPY

USDCAD

0.90

NZDJPY

0.86

CHFJPY

0.82

CADJPY

0.79

USDCHF

0.73

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how USDJPY correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

USDJPY shows strong positive correlation with: USDCAD, NZDJPY, CHFJPY, CADJPY, USDCHF. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

USD

0.81

Very-strong

JPY

-0.69

Weak

Relative Strength:

1.50

Bullish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

USD is significantly stronger than JPY on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of 1.50. This suggests a strong bullish bias for USDJPY. With USD showing absolute strength and JPY showing absolute weakness, this is an ideal scenario for a long position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on USDJPY to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.