The Signal Overview at the top weighs five of the readings above into one score, and the setups worth acting on are the ones where the factors that voted agree. Every pair ranked: Signals. Today's plans: Daily Forecast.
USD/JPY Analysis
Comprehensive analysis for USDJPY showing neutral market bias. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.
View USDJPY sentiment overview
AI analyst comment
USDJPY rallied from 152.885 to 159.036 by Sep 24. Since the Sep 25 reversal it has been coiling between 156.375 and 158.45, with a higher low intact. The MACD histogram has flipped to +0.31 and the line is about to cross zero, while RSI 52.9 sits right at the midline, so momentum is rebuilding rather than trending. Retail is split 50/50, giving no contrarian edge. A daily close above 158.056-158.45 reopens 159.036, while a break below 156.375 would turn the consolidation into a top.
Signal Overview
Neutral
Low Confidence
Medium Volatility
Signal Balance:
49% Long
51% Short
Signal strength
2%
Factors are split
no clear majority
Factor detail
Strength
19%
Patterns
15%
S/R
29%
HP Zones
37%
Sentiment
retail positioning too balanced to count (50% long)
—
Signal Analysis:
The analysis indicates a neutral outlook for USDJPY. Supporting factors include: High probability (71%) resistance zone detected at 158.056; Retail positioning is not one-sided enough to count (50% long, 50% short); Technical patterns identified: Doji (D1), fading. Contradicting factors: USD is showing relative strength against JPY (diff: 25%). Volatility on this pair is currently medium.
AI Daily Forecast
NO PLAN The AI reads USDJPY as directionless for this session, so it publishes no entry, stop or target.
US Non-Farm Payrolls at 08:30 NY: no directional plan. Japan's PM has vowed to restore confidence in the yen, so buying toward 159-160 also carries intervention risk.
Not the signal above, which is a score refreshed every three hours: this plan is written once a night, for one session. The full board.
Sentiment Analysis
LONG
SHORT
50%
50%
Historical Sentiment
Sentiment Interpretation
Retail positioning is balanced (50% long). Up to 60% on either side it carries no weight in our signals, and a balanced reading says nothing about the next move.
Price and retail positioning
The same retail long % as above, over the whole archive and drawn against the price. Candles from 15 minutes to monthly.
Retail
Open USD/JPY on TradingViewCharts drawn with TradingView Lightweight Charts™ · Copyright (с) 2025 TradingView, Inc.
Daily candles from our broker price feed, 2 October 2023 to 2 October 2026 (bid prices; the day closes at 17:00 New York); weekly and monthly candles are built from them. Drag to pan; scroll, drag the time axis or pinch to zoom. On a touch screen, drag the price scale with one finger to move the chart up or down, with two to stretch it, and double-tap it to reset.
The 15-minute, hourly and four-hour candles come from the same feed and load when you pick them; older ones load by themselves as you scroll left, back to the start of the archive. Four-hour candles open at 17:00, 21:00, 01:00, 05:00, 09:00 and 13:00 New York, as on TradingView. Their last candle is still forming and refreshes about every minute while the view is open. On those views the retail positioning is drawn as steps: it is a snapshot every 3 hours, not a minute-by-minute reading.
Retail positioning: daily snapshots since 12 May 2025, 464 so far · latest 50% long at 2 Oct 21:00 UTC; on the weekly and monthly views it is the average of the trading days. From 60% on one side it counts as crowded and from 75% as extreme, the same three states the Trade Panel shows. The positioning is refreshed every 3 hours on weekdays, not real-time.
Want this retail positioning on your MT5 charts? The Trade Panel puts it inside MetaTrader 5 for all 29 markets, next to our signal and the AI plan of the day, and the Chart Panel, new in 1.8, draws them on the chart you trade. One license covers both panels.
Discover the panelSupport & Resistance Analysis
Arithmetic pivots for this pair are pre-filled in the USDJPY pivot point calculator.
Analysis Price:
157.856
Market price now157.860Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
Between S1 156.948 (91.1 pips below) and R1 158.056 (19.7 pips above)
Resistance Levels
R1:
158.056
0.13%
↑
R2:
158.450
0.38%
↑
R3:
159.036
0.75%
↑
R4:
159.777
1.22%
↑
Support Levels
S1:
156.948
0.57%
↓
S2:
156.678
0.75%
↓
S3:
156.375
0.94%
↓
S4:
155.229
1.66%
↓
Market Regime:
Range
AI Bias:
Bullish
Price Position Analysis
Price is currently near resistance at 158.056 (0.13% above analysis price) with support at 156.948 (0.57% below). This position near resistance could present a potential selling opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Chart Pattern Analysis
H1
59%
Shooting Star
Reliability:
Detected: Oct 2, 20:00 · last closed bar
H4
63%
Bullish Engulfing
Reliability:
Detected: Oct 2, 13:00 · 1 H4 bar ago
H1
75%
Double Top
Reliability:
Detected: Oct 2, 16:00 · 4 H1 bars ago · fading
D1
50%
Doji
Reliability:
Detected: Sep 28, 00:00 · 4 D1 bars ago · fading
Pattern Analysis Interpretation
Predominantly bearish patterns detected across timeframes, suggesting downward pressure. The most relevant formation right now is a bearish Shooting Star on H1, documented at 59% historical reliability for that pattern type and printed on the last closed bar. The directional readings point in opposite ways, so this is a conflict rather than a confirmation.
High Probability Zones
Resistance Zone
71%
Zone Band (2 levels):
158.056 – 158.450
Analysis Price:
157.856
Distance:
0.13%
Market price now157.860Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
19.7 pips below the zone
Confluence Factors:
Support Zone
69%
Zone Band (3 levels):
156.375 – 156.948
Analysis Price:
157.856
Distance:
0.57%
Market price now157.860Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
91.1 pips above the zone
Confluence Factors:
Resistance Zone
59%
Zone Level:
159.036
Analysis Price:
157.856
Distance:
0.75%
Market price now157.860Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
117.7 pips below the zone
Confluence Factors:
High Probability Zones Interpretation
Price is sitting right on the strongest resistance zone we scored for this pair, at 158.056 (confluence score 71%). The score comes from 3 factors converging here: a shooting star formed at the level, a psychological round number and 5 distinct tests in the last 30 days.
3 zones were scored for this pair: 1 below the analysis price and 2 above it.
Volatility Analysis
Select Timeframe:
Daily Range (pips):
127.6
Volatility Regime:
Normal
Volatility Level:
37%
10-Day ATR Trend
Volatility Interpretation (D1)
USDJPY is showing normal volatility (37 percentile) with an expected range of 127.6 pips per session. This represents average market conditions conducive to standard trading strategies. Standard position sizing and stop loss parameters are appropriate.
Correlation Analysis
Top Correlations with USDJPY
CADJPY
0.91
EURJPY
0.90
GBPJPY
0.88
CHFJPY
0.82
AUDJPY
0.77
Correlation Interpretation
USDJPY shows strong positive correlation with: CADJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, AUDJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.
Currency Strength Analysis
Select Timeframe:
Weighted across timeframes the way our signal reads it (daily counts most), USD vs JPY comes out at +0.25 — bullish for USDJPY. Individual tabs can disagree with it: shorter windows swing more.
USD
0.49
Strong
vs
JPY
0.14
Neutral
Relative Strength:
0.35
Bullish Bias
Currency Strength Interpretation (D1)
USD is moderately stronger than JPY on the D1 timeframe, with a relative strength of 0.35. This suggests a mild bullish bias for USDJPY. Monitor for additional confirmation signals before entering a long position.
How to Use This Analysis
Other Currency Pairs
EURUSD
Bearish (Medium)
GBPUSD
Bearish (Low)
USDCHF
Neutral (Low)
AUDUSD
Bearish (High)
USDCAD
Bullish (Medium)
NZDUSD
Bearish (High)
EURGBP
Bearish (Medium)
EURJPY
Bearish (Medium)
EURCHF
Bearish (High)
EURAUD
Bearish (Medium)
EURCAD
Bearish (Medium)
EURNZD
Neutral (Low)
GBPJPY
Bearish (Low)
GBPCHF
Bearish (Medium)
GBPAUD
Bullish (Low)
GBPCAD
Bullish (Low)
GBPNZD
Bullish (Medium)
AUDJPY
Bearish (Medium)
CADJPY
Bearish (Low)
NZDJPY
Bearish (Medium)
CHFJPY
Bullish (Low)
AUDCHF
Bearish (Medium)
AUDCAD
Bullish (Medium)
AUDNZD
Bullish (Medium)
NZDCHF
Bearish (Medium)
NZDCAD
Bearish (Medium)
CADCHF
Bearish (High)
XAUUSD
Neutral (Low)
