USDJPY Neutral

Analysis Price: 153.48 (Updated: 16 February 2026, 22:23 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for USDJPY showing neutral market bias. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Neutral Medium Confidence Very high Risk

Market Consensus:

49% Long

51% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a neutral outlook for USDJPY. Supporting factors include: Retail sentiment is balanced (49% long, 51% short); Technical patterns identified: Symmetric Triangle (D1). Contradicting factors: USD is showing relative weakness against JPY (diff: 18%). Risk assessment for this trade is very high. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

51% 49%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Neutral sentiment with a balanced distribution between long and short positions. This suggests indecision in the market, which could precede a significant move once a clear direction emerges.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 157.66 2.72% ↑

Analysis Price: 153.48

Support Levels

S1: 152.55 0.61% ↓

Market Regime:

Downtrend

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

60%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near support at 152.55 (0.61% below analysis price) with resistance at 157.66 (2.72% above). This position near support could present a potential buying opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

No chart patterns detected for USDJPY at this time.

High Probability Zones

Resistance Zone

95%

Zone Level:

156.39

analysis price:

153.48

Distance:

1.84%

Confluence Factors:

Head and Shoulders 24% Retracement

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Resistance Zone

95%

Zone Level:

155.60

analysis price:

153.48

Distance:

1.33%

Confluence Factors:

Evening Star 38% Retracement Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is approaching a high probability (95%) resistance zone at 156.39, currently 1.84% away. Consider preparing a sell strategy as price approaches this level, watching for confirmation signals.

Multiple high probability zones exist for this pair, indicating a well-structured technical environment with clear levels for trading decisions.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

0.8

Volatility Regime:

Extreme

Volatility Level:

95%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

USDJPY is currently showing extreme volatility (95 percentile) with an expected daily range of 0.8 pips. This indicates potentially rapid price movements that create both opportunity and risk. Consider wider stop losses (1.5-2x normal size) and reduced position sizes to manage the elevated risk.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with USDJPY

NZDJPY

0.90

GBPJPY

0.89

AUDJPY

0.89

GBPUSD

-0.88

EURJPY

0.87

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how USDJPY correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

USDJPY shows strong positive correlation with: NZDJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY, EURJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

USDJPY shows strong negative correlation with: GBPUSD. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

USD

0.22

Neutral

JPY

0.70

Very-strong

Relative Strength:

-0.48

Bearish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

JPY is moderately stronger than USD on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -0.48. This suggests a mild bearish bias for USDJPY. Monitor for additional confirmation signals before entering a short position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on USDJPY to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.