USDJPY Bullish

Analysis Price: 143.77 (Updated: 1 July 2025, 22:21 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for USDJPY showing a predominantly bullish bias with 72% bullish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Raw trader sentiment shows 54% long, 46% short. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bullish High Confidence Medium Risk

Market Consensus:

72% Long

28% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a high confidence bullish bias for USDJPY (signal strength: 45%). Supporting factors include: USD is showing relative strength against JPY (diff: 60%). Risk assessment for this trade is medium. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (54% long / 46% short). The overall bullish bias (72%) mentioned in the page header represents our analytical consensus based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.

LONG SHORT

54% 46%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Neutral sentiment with a balanced distribution between long and short positions. This suggests indecision in the market, which could precede a significant move once a clear direction emerges.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 144.05 0.19% ↑

Analysis Price: 143.77

Support Levels

S1: 142.68 0.76% ↓

Market Regime:

Downtrend

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

60%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near resistance at 144.05 (0.19% above analysis price) with support at 142.68 (0.76% below). This position near resistance could present a potential selling opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

No chart patterns detected for USDJPY at this time.

High Probability Zones

Support Zone

85%

Zone Level:

140.00

analysis price:

143.77

Distance:

2.62%

Confluence Factors:

Morning Star 50% Retracement Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

A high probability (85%) support zone exists at 140.00, currently 2.62% away from price. Keep this level on watch for potential future buying opportunities if price moves lower.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

0.5

Volatility Regime:

Extreme

Volatility Level:

100%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

USDJPY is currently showing extreme volatility (100 percentile) with an expected daily range of 0.5 pips. This indicates potentially rapid price movements that create both opportunity and risk. Consider wider stop losses (1.5-2x normal size) and reduced position sizes to manage the elevated risk.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with USDJPY

CADJPY

0.90

USDCAD

0.74

GBPJPY

0.68

NZDUSD

-0.66

AUDUSD

-0.62

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how USDJPY correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

USDJPY shows strong positive correlation with: CADJPY, USDCAD. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

USD

0.94

Very-strong

JPY

0.55

Strong

Relative Strength:

0.39

Bullish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

USD is moderately stronger than JPY on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of 0.39. This suggests a mild bullish bias for USDJPY. Monitor for additional confirmation signals before entering a long position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on USDJPY to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.