USD/JPY intervention risk rises as HSBC targets 155-160 danger zone

HSBC analysts have identified 155-160 as a critical intervention threshold for USD/JPY, warning that the Bank of Japan may act decisively if the pair breaches these levels. The bank considers 146-152 as fair value range based on current fundamentals, suggesting the yen is significantly undervalued at current levels near 157.00. Historical intervention patterns show the BOJ typically intervenes when moves become disorderly or exceed psychological boundaries. The last major intervention occurred in April 2024 when USD/JPY approached 160, resulting in a sharp 5% reversal. Current positioning data indicates heavy speculative long USD/JPY positions, increasing vulnerability to intervention-driven unwinding. Traders should implement strict risk management above 158.00, with potential for rapid 200-300 pip moves if intervention materializes. The MOF and BOJ continue monitoring excessive volatility, though verbal warnings have intensified recently.