USD/CAD steady at 1.3916 as Canada retail sales match 1.5% forecast

USD/CAD remained virtually unchanged at 1.3916 following Canada's June retail sales data release, which came in exactly at the 1.5% forecast, recovering from May's -1.1% decline. The headline figure matched expectations, while retail sales excluding autos showed stronger performance at 1.1% versus -0.2% previously. Advanced estimates suggest July sales maintained positive momentum, indicating resilient Canadian consumer spending despite elevated interest rates. The pair's muted reaction reflects the data meeting market expectations precisely, with traders now focusing on upcoming US economic releases. Technical analysis shows USD/CAD trading within a narrow 1.3900-1.3950 range, with resistance at the psychological 1.4000 level. The Bank of Canada's next policy decision remains data-dependent, with today's figures supporting the case for a measured approach to future rate adjustments. Near-term direction likely depends on relative USD strength and oil price movements.