AUDCAD Bearish

Analysis Price: 0.8953 (Updated: 17 May 2025, 15:39 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for AUDCAD showing predominantly bearish sentiment with 76% of traders in short positions. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish Medium Confidence High Risk

Market Consensus:

24% Long

76% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a medium confidence bearish bias for AUDCAD (signal strength: 52%). Supporting factors include: High probability (95%) resistance zone detected at 0.9; Retail sentiment is 59% bearish. Contradicting factors: Technical patterns identified: Double Bottom (H1). Risk assessment for this trade is high. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

41% 59%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Neutral sentiment with a balanced distribution between long and short positions. This suggests indecision in the market, which could precede a significant move once a clear direction emerges.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 0.9040 0.97% ↑

Analysis Price: 0.8953

Support Levels

S1: 0.8923 0.33% ↓

Market Regime:

Range

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

65%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near support at 0.8923 (0.33% below analysis price) with resistance at 0.9040 (0.97% above). This position near support could present a potential buying opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

92%

Double Top

Reliability:

92%

Detected: May 17, 07:32

69%

Bullish Engulfing

Reliability:

69%

Detected: May 17, 09:20

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Mixed pattern signals detected, suggesting conflicting technical factors. The most reliable pattern is a bearish Double Top on the H1 timeframe with 92% historical reliability. Multiple timeframes showing pattern confirmation increases the reliability of the signal.

High Probability Zones

No high probability zones detected for AUDCAD at this time.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

77.0

Volatility Regime:

Normal

Volatility Level:

57%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

AUDCAD is showing normal volatility (57 percentile) with an expected daily range of 77.0 pips. This represents average market conditions conducive to standard trading strategies. Standard position sizing and stop loss parameters are appropriate.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with AUDCAD

NZDCAD

0.88

GBPAUD

-0.82

AUDCHF

0.81

AUDNZD

0.74

GBPCAD

0.60

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how AUDCAD correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

AUDCAD shows strong positive correlation with: NZDCAD, AUDCHF, AUDNZD. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

AUDCAD shows strong negative correlation with: GBPAUD. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

AUD

-0.29

Neutral

CAD

0.04

Neutral

Relative Strength:

-0.33

Bearish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

CAD is moderately stronger than AUD on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -0.33. This suggests a mild bearish bias for AUDCAD. Monitor for additional confirmation signals before entering a short position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on AUDCAD to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.