AUDCHF Bearish

Analysis Price: 0.5192 (Updated: 16 November 2025, 16:41 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for AUDCHF showing a predominantly bearish bias with 64% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Raw trader sentiment shows 71% long, 29% short. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish Medium Confidence High Risk

Market Consensus:

36% Long

64% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a medium confidence bearish bias for AUDCHF (signal strength: 28%). Supporting factors include: High probability (95%) resistance zone detected at 0.5255; AUD is showing relative weakness against CHF (diff: 14%). Contradicting factors: Retail sentiment is 71% bullish; Technical patterns identified: Morning Star (H4). Risk assessment for this trade is high. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (71% long / 29% short). The overall bearish bias (64%) mentioned in the page header represents our analytical consensus based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.

LONG SHORT

71% 29%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Bullish sentiment with 71% of traders holding long positions. The market has a positive bias, but watch for signs of exhaustion if this percentage increases further.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 0.5269 1.49% ↑

Analysis Price: 0.5192

Support Levels

S1: 0.5138 1.03% ↓

Market Regime:

Downtrend

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

55%

Price Position Analysis

Price is between support at 0.5138 (1.03% below analysis price) and resistance at 0.5269 (1.49% above), with slightly closer proximity to support. Watch for bounce confirmation at support or break below.

Chart Pattern Analysis

75%

Rectangle

Reliability:

75%

Detected: Nov 16, 13:50

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly neutral patterns detected, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. The most reliable pattern is a neutral Rectangle on the D1 timeframe with 75% historical reliability. This pattern is currently only confirmed on the D1 timeframe.

High Probability Zones

Resistance Zone

75%

Zone Level:

0.5540

analysis price:

0.5192

Distance:

6.72%

Confluence Factors:

Evening Star 162% Extension Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Support Zone

75%

Zone Level:

0.5000

analysis price:

0.5192

Distance:

3.69%

Confluence Factors:

Inverse Head and Shoulders 61.8% Retracement

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Support Zone

75%

Zone Level:

0.5000

analysis price:

0.5192

Distance:

3.69%

Confluence Factors:

Morning Star 50% Retracement

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

A high probability (75%) resistance zone exists at 0.5540, currently 6.72% away from price. Keep this level on watch for potential future selling opportunities if price moves higher.

Multiple high probability zones exist for this pair, indicating a well-structured technical environment with clear levels for trading decisions.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

28.0

Volatility Regime:

Normal

Volatility Level:

53%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

AUDCHF is showing normal volatility (53 percentile) with an expected daily range of 28.0 pips. This represents average market conditions conducive to standard trading strategies. Standard position sizing and stop loss parameters are appropriate.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with AUDCHF

EURAUD

-0.83

GBPAUD

-0.82

NZDCHF

0.79

AUDJPY

0.77

USDCHF

0.69

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how AUDCHF correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

AUDCHF shows strong positive correlation with: NZDCHF, AUDJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

AUDCHF shows strong negative correlation with: EURAUD, GBPAUD. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

AUD

0.25

Neutral

CHF

-0.93

Very-weak

Relative Strength:

1.18

Bullish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

AUD is significantly stronger than CHF on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of 1.18. This suggests a strong bullish bias for AUDCHF. However, this bias is primarily driven by the weakness of CHF.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on AUDCHF to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.