USD pairs face pressure as IEA forecasts oil oversupply for 2025

Oil-sensitive currency pairs are experiencing volatility following the International Energy Agency's revised 2025 global oil supply forecast. The IEA now expects world oil supply to surge by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025, significantly outpacing demand growth of just 740,000 bpd. This widening supply-demand gap, driven by OPEC+'s decision to increase production, is pressuring oil prices and impacting commodity-linked currencies. CAD/USD has weakened 0.2% as Canada's oil-dependent economy faces headwinds, while USD/NOK gained 0.4% with the Norwegian krone under pressure. The IEA warns of 'increasingly bloated oil balances' despite potential supply disruptions from Russia and Iran sanctions. For 2026, demand growth remains subdued at 700,000 bpd. Traders should monitor support levels at 1.3580 for USD/CAD and resistance at 11.20 for USD/NOK, as oversupply concerns could drive further commodity currency weakness through Q1 2025.