EURCHF Bearish

Analysis Price: 0.9350 (Updated: 17 May 2025, 17:48 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for EURCHF showing predominantly bearish sentiment with 58% of traders in short positions. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish Medium Confidence High Risk

Market Consensus:

42% Long

58% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a medium confidence bearish bias for EURCHF (signal strength: 16%). Supporting factors include: Technical patterns identified: Head and Shoulders (H4); EUR is showing relative weakness against CHF (diff: 39%). Contradicting factors: Retail sentiment is 74% bullish. Risk assessment for this trade is high. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

74% 26%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Bullish sentiment with 74% of traders holding long positions. The market has a positive bias, but watch for signs of exhaustion if this percentage increases further.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 0.9412 0.66% ↑

Analysis Price: 0.9350

Support Levels

S1: 0.9334 0.17% ↓

Market Regime:

Range

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

55%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near support at 0.9334 (0.17% below analysis price) with resistance at 0.9412 (0.66% above). This position near support could present a potential buying opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

72%

Head and Shoulders

Reliability:

72%

Detected: May 16, 18:46

69%

Rectangle

Reliability:

69%

Detected: May 16, 19:26

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Mixed pattern signals detected, suggesting conflicting technical factors. The most reliable pattern is a bearish Head and Shoulders on the H4 timeframe with 72% historical reliability. Multiple timeframes showing pattern confirmation increases the reliability of the signal.

High Probability Zones

Resistance Zone

87%

Zone Level:

0.9623

analysis price:

0.9350

Distance:

2.92%

Confluence Factors:

Shooting Star 162% Extension

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

A high probability (87%) resistance zone exists at 0.9623, currently 2.92% away from price. Keep this level on watch for potential future selling opportunities if price moves higher.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

48.0

Volatility Regime:

Normal

Volatility Level:

60%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

EURCHF is showing normal volatility (60 percentile) with an expected daily range of 48.0 pips. This represents average market conditions conducive to standard trading strategies. Standard position sizing and stop loss parameters are appropriate.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with EURCHF

EURJPY

0.81

USDCHF

0.78

EURUSD

0.74

NZDCHF

0.71

EURAUD

0.65

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how EURCHF correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

EURCHF shows strong positive correlation with: EURJPY, USDCHF, EURUSD, NZDCHF. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

EUR

-0.25

Neutral

CHF

0.02

Neutral

Relative Strength:

-0.27

Neutral Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

CHF is moderately stronger than EUR on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -0.27. This suggests a mild bearish bias for EURCHF. Monitor for additional confirmation signals before entering a short position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on EURCHF to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.