EURCHF Bearish

Analysis Price: 0.9351 (Updated: 2 October 2025, 00:15 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for EURCHF showing a predominantly bearish bias with 64% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Raw trader sentiment shows 71% long, 29% short. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish Medium Confidence High Risk

Market Consensus:

36% Long

64% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a medium confidence bearish bias for EURCHF (signal strength: 28%). Supporting factors include: High probability (95%) resistance zone detected at 0.9460. Contradicting factors: EUR is showing relative strength against CHF (diff: 51%); Retail sentiment is 65% bullish. Risk assessment for this trade is high. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (71% long / 29% short). The overall bearish bias (64%) mentioned in the page header represents our analytical consensus based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.

LONG SHORT

71% 29%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Bullish sentiment with 71% of traders holding long positions. The market has a positive bias, but watch for signs of exhaustion if this percentage increases further.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 0.9371 0.22% ↑

Analysis Price: 0.9351

Support Levels

S1: 0.9329 0.23% ↓

Market Regime:

Range

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

50%

Price Position Analysis

Price is between support at 0.9329 (0.23% below analysis price) and resistance at 0.9371 (0.22% above), with slightly closer proximity to resistance. Watch for rejection confirmation at resistance or break above.

Chart Pattern Analysis

No chart patterns detected for EURCHF at this time.

High Probability Zones

Support Zone

95%

Zone Level:

0.9331

analysis price:

0.9351

Distance:

0.21%

Confluence Factors:

Morning Star 62% Retracement

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Resistance Zone

95%

Zone Level:

0.9460

analysis price:

0.9351

Distance:

1.17%

Confluence Factors:

Bearish Engulfing 162% Extension Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is extremely close to a high probability (95%) support zone at 0.9331. This presents a potential buying opportunity with stop loss slightly below the zone. Multiple confluence factors strengthen this level's significance.

Multiple high probability zones exist for this pair, indicating a well-structured technical environment with clear levels for trading decisions.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

58.0

Volatility Regime:

Low

Volatility Level:

18%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

EURCHF is exhibiting low volatility (18 percentile) with an expected daily range of just 58.0 pips. This reduced movement typically indicates consolidation or indecision in the market. Consider tighter stop losses but be aware that breakout potential increases after periods of low volatility.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with EURCHF

EURGBP

0.90

EURNZD

0.90

EURJPY

0.87

NZDCHF

0.80

CHFJPY

-0.79

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how EURCHF correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

EURCHF shows strong positive correlation with: EURGBP, EURNZD, EURJPY, NZDCHF. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

EURCHF shows strong negative correlation with: CHFJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

EUR

0.95

Very-strong

CHF

0.86

Very-strong

Relative Strength:

0.09

Neutral Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

EUR and CHF show similar strength levels on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of 0.09. This indicates a neutral bias for EURCHF and suggests range-bound trading conditions may be more likely.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on EURCHF to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.