USD/JPY Q4 Forecast: Data Releases and US Elections to Drive Volatility

USD/JPY enters Q4 2025 trading at 149.25, with analysts projecting heightened volatility driven by upcoming economic data releases and US political developments. The pair has established a trading range between 147.50 support and 151.00 resistance, with the US Dollar Index futures indicating continued strength at 106.20. Key catalysts include Japanese wage growth data, US employment reports, and Federal Reserve policy decisions expected before year-end. S&P 500 futures correlation remains strong at 0.75, while the VIX at 18.5 suggests moderate market uncertainty ahead of the November elections. Technical analysis reveals bullish momentum above the 200-day moving average at 148.00, with potential for a break toward 152.00 if US data continues to outperform. Traders should prepare for increased volatility spikes around major data releases and political events that could trigger 200+ pip daily moves.