GBPJPY Bearish

Analysis Price: 209.23 (Updated: 16 February 2026, 22:23 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for GBPJPY showing a predominantly bearish bias with 79% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Raw trader sentiment shows 50% long, 50% short. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish Medium Confidence Medium Risk

Market Consensus:

21% Long

79% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a medium confidence bearish bias for GBPJPY (signal strength: 59%). Supporting factors include: High probability (95%) resistance zone detected at 210.5. Contradicting factors: GBP is showing relative strength against JPY (diff: 24%). Risk assessment for this trade is medium. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (50% long / 50% short). The overall bearish bias (79%) mentioned in the page header represents our analytical consensus based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.

LONG SHORT

50% 50%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Neutral sentiment with a balanced distribution between long and short positions. This suggests indecision in the market, which could precede a significant move once a clear direction emerges.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 214.45 2.49% ↑

Analysis Price: 209.23

Support Levels

S1: 207.57 0.80% ↓

Market Regime:

Downtrend

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

65%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near support at 207.57 (0.80% below analysis price) with resistance at 214.45 (2.49% above). This position near support could present a potential buying opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

94%

Bearish Flag

Reliability:

94%

Detected: Feb 16, 21:16

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly bearish patterns detected across timeframes, suggesting downward pressure. The most reliable pattern is a bearish Bearish Flag on the H1 timeframe with 94% historical reliability. This pattern is currently only confirmed on the H1 timeframe.

High Probability Zones

Support Zone

95%

Zone Level:

208.00

analysis price:

209.23

Distance:

0.60%

Confluence Factors:

Inverse Head and Shoulders 127.2% Extension

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is approaching a high probability (95%) support zone at 208.00, currently 0.60% away. Consider preparing a buy strategy as price approaches this level, watching for confirmation signals.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

0.3

Volatility Regime:

Normal

Volatility Level:

33%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

GBPJPY is showing normal volatility (33 percentile) with an expected daily range of 0.3 pips. This represents average market conditions conducive to standard trading strategies. Standard position sizing and stop loss parameters are appropriate.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with GBPJPY

USDJPY

0.89

GBPCHF

0.89

EURGBP

-0.83

GBPUSD

0.81

NZDJPY

0.81

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how GBPJPY correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

GBPJPY shows strong positive correlation with: USDJPY, GBPCHF, GBPUSD, NZDJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

GBPJPY shows strong negative correlation with: EURGBP. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

GBP

0.83

Very-strong

JPY

0.70

Very-strong

Relative Strength:

0.13

Neutral Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

GBP and JPY show similar strength levels on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of 0.13. This indicates a neutral bias for GBPJPY and suggests range-bound trading conditions may be more likely.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on GBPJPY to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.