GBPJPY Bearish

Analysis Price: 193.65 (Updated: 17 May 2025, 15:39 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for GBPJPY showing predominantly bearish sentiment with 85% of traders in short positions. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish Medium Confidence High Risk

Market Consensus:

15% Long

85% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a medium confidence bearish bias for GBPJPY (signal strength: 70%). Supporting factors include: High probability (95%) resistance zone detected at 194; Retail sentiment is 57% bearish. Contradicting factors: GBP is showing relative strength against JPY (diff: 18%). Risk assessment for this trade is high. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

43% 57%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Neutral sentiment with a balanced distribution between long and short positions. This suggests indecision in the market, which could precede a significant move once a clear direction emerges.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 196.29 1.36% ↑

Analysis Price: 193.65

Support Levels

S1: 193.04 0.32% ↓

Market Regime:

Uptrend

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

60%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near support at 193.04 (0.32% below analysis price) with resistance at 196.29 (1.36% above). This position near support could present a potential buying opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

89%

Head and Shoulders

Reliability:

89%

Detected: May 17, 06:24

85%

Double Bottom

Reliability:

85%

Detected: May 16, 18:16

62%

Bearish Rectangle

Reliability:

62%

Detected: May 17, 11:30

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly bearish patterns detected across timeframes, suggesting downward pressure. The most reliable pattern is a bearish Head and Shoulders on the H1 timeframe with 89% historical reliability. Multiple timeframes showing pattern confirmation increases the reliability of the signal.

High Probability Zones

No high probability zones detected for GBPJPY at this time.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

0.8

Volatility Regime:

Low

Volatility Level:

10%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

GBPJPY is exhibiting low volatility (10 percentile) with an expected daily range of just 0.8 pips. This reduced movement typically indicates consolidation or indecision in the market. Consider tighter stop losses but be aware that breakout potential increases after periods of low volatility.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with GBPJPY

GBPUSD

0.88

GBPCHF

0.82

CADJPY

0.80

EURJPY

0.74

AUDJPY

0.72

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how GBPJPY correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

GBPJPY shows strong positive correlation with: GBPUSD, GBPCHF, CADJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

GBP

0.06

Neutral

JPY

0.68

Strong

Relative Strength:

-0.62

Bearish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

JPY is significantly stronger than GBP on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -0.62. This suggests a strong bearish bias for GBPJPY. However, this bias is primarily driven by the strength of JPY.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on GBPJPY to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.