USD rally at risk as FOMC minutes loom over hawkish expectations

The US dollar's recent rally faces a critical test with today's FOMC minutes release, which could reveal divisions among Fed officials regarding the pace of future rate adjustments. USD pairs have shown mixed performance, with EUR/USD hovering near 1.0980, USD/JPY consolidating around 149.20, and commodity pairs like AUD/USD and NZD/USD finding support at 0.6650 and 0.6100 respectively. Markets are pricing in a 65% probability of a December pause, but hawkish surprises in the minutes could fuel further dollar gains. Conversely, any dovish tilt or concerns about economic slowdown could trigger profit-taking on long USD positions. Technical analysis shows the Dollar Index testing resistance at 102.80, with a break above targeting 103.50. Key event risk suggests increased volatility across all major pairs, with particular focus on yield-sensitive crosses.