NZD/USD Poised for Bounce as RBNZ Rate Cut Expectations Peak

NZD/USD is showing signs of stabilization near 0.6050 as market participants reassess whether aggressive Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate cut expectations have been fully priced in. The kiwi dollar has faced sustained pressure from dovish RBNZ rhetoric and weak domestic economic data, driving rate cut bets to extreme levels. However, technical indicators suggest oversold conditions, with RSI readings below 30 on daily charts pointing to potential mean reversion. The US Dollar Index's recent consolidation near 106.50 is providing breathing room for beaten-down currencies. Key resistance for NZD/USD sits at 0.6120, coinciding with the 20-day moving average, while support has formed at the psychological 0.6000 level. A sustained bounce requires either moderation in RBNZ easing expectations or broader USD weakness. Near-term catalysts include upcoming New Zealand inflation data and any shift in Federal Reserve policy signals that could alter USD dynamics.