EUR/USD consolidates at 1.0540; downside risks dominate outlook

EUR/USD remains trapped in a tight consolidation pattern around 1.0540, with technical indicators suggesting potential downside momentum building. The pair has failed to break above the 1.0580 resistance level for three consecutive sessions, while the DXY maintains strength above 106.00. European economic data continues to disappoint, with German industrial production falling 2.5% month-over-month, worse than the -1.0% forecast. The ECB's dovish stance contrasts with the Fed's measured approach to rate cuts, creating a fundamental headwind for the euro. Technical analysis reveals a descending triangle pattern forming on the 4-hour chart, targeting 1.0480 if support at 1.0520 breaks. The 200-day moving average at 1.0615 caps upside potential. Traders should watch for a decisive break below 1.0520, which could accelerate losses toward the yearly low at 1.0450.