AUD/USD trades cautiously around 0.6480, gaining 0.1% as the Reserve Bank of Australia's hawkish tone challenges market expectations for near-term rate cuts. The RBA's latest communications emphasize persistent inflation concerns, with officials suggesting rates may need to remain elevated longer than previously anticipated. Australian inflation remains stubbornly above the 2-3% target range at 4.1%, supporting the central bank's cautious approach. However, the pair's upside remains capped by broad US dollar strength and concerns over China's economic recovery, Australia's largest trading partner. Technical resistance sits at 0.6500, coinciding with the 100-day moving average, while support holds at 0.6450. A decisive break above 0.6500 could open the path to 0.6550, though traders remain wary of diverging monetary policy outlooks between the RBA and Fed. The near-term direction likely depends on upcoming Australian employment data and any shifts in global risk sentiment.
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