EUR/USD retreats below 1.1600 after 3-day rally, Fed cut bets provide support

EUR/USD eased 0.2% (23 pips) to 1.1580 during Friday's Asian session, pulling back from a three-day winning streak that had pushed the pair near 1.1620. The modest retreat reflects profit-taking after the euro's recent gains, though downside remains limited by growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Markets are pricing in a 70% probability of a 25 basis point Fed cut at the December meeting, following softer US inflation data earlier this week. The euro faces headwinds from concerns about eurozone growth, with Germany's economic outlook particularly weak. Technical analysis shows immediate support at 1.1550 (50-day moving average), while resistance sits at 1.1620 (Thursday's high). A decisive break below 1.1550 could accelerate losses toward 1.1500, though dovish Fed expectations and year-end flows may continue supporting the pair above key support levels.