AUD/USD Breakout Faces Major Event Risk from RBA and China Data

AUD/USD has achieved a bullish breakout above 0.6550 resistance, gaining 0.6% (40 pips) to 0.6575 amid improving risk sentiment and commodity price strength. The Australian dollar benefits from copper futures rising 2.1% and iron ore advancing 1.8%, reflecting optimism about Chinese demand. Technical indicators confirm the breakout, with the pair clearing its 100-day moving average and MACD turning positive. However, significant event risk looms with Tuesday's RBA rate decision and Wednesday's Chinese PMI data. Markets expect the RBA to hold rates at 4.35%, but any hawkish commentary could propel AUD/USD toward 0.6620 resistance. Conversely, disappointing Chinese economic data could quickly reverse gains, given Australia's export dependence. The Nasdaq 100's 0.5% gain supports risk-on positioning, favoring commodity currencies. Traders should consider the elevated volatility risk, with implied volatility rising to 8.2% ahead of key events.