EUR/USD advances on ECB-Fed policy divergence and weak US ADP data

EUR/USD gained 0.4% (45 pips) to reach 1.0520, driven by growing monetary policy divergence between the ECB and Federal Reserve. Weaker-than-expected US ADP employment data showed only 146K jobs added versus 185K forecast, increasing dovish Fed rate cut expectations for 2025. Markets now price in a 70% probability of a December Fed rate cut, while the ECB maintains a more cautious approach to easing. The euro found additional support from improving Eurozone business confidence indicators and stabilizing energy prices. Technical momentum remains bullish with the pair breaking above the 1.0500 psychological level and 20-day moving average. Immediate resistance stands at 1.0550, followed by the November high at 1.0600. Support levels are established at 1.0480 and 1.0450. Continued USD weakness could propel EUR/USD toward the 1.0600 target, particularly if Friday's NFP data disappoints.