| GBPAUDStop hit 13:04 UTC |
Bullish
|
Medium
|
1.90442 |
1.90320Buy limit |
1.89850 |
1.91157 |
+0.09R |
1:1.78 |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Medium
Analysis Price
1.90442
Entry Point
1.90320
Order Type
Buy limit
Stop Loss
1.89850
Conservative Target
1.91157
Risk:Reward
1:1.78
Optimal Target
1.91910
Stop Loss Distance
47.0 pips
Target Distance
83.7 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.91157
1.91910
1.92601
Support:
1.90238
1.90071
1.89590
Rationale
The breakout above the September range holds, with higher lows every session since 22 September. The plan buys a dip toward 1.90238 with a 0.5 ATR volatility stop below 1.90071, expressing AUD weakness without dollar exposure on payrolls day.
|
| GBPNZDWindow closed, entry filled, +0.6R |
Bullish
|
Medium
|
2.35553 |
2.35400Buy limit |
2.34740 |
2.36208 |
+0.09R |
1:1.22 |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Medium
Analysis Price
2.35553
Entry Point
2.35400
Order Type
Buy limit
Stop Loss
2.34740
Conservative Target
2.36208
Risk:Reward
1:1.22
Optimal Target
2.37000
Stop Loss Distance
66.0 pips
Target Distance
80.8 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
2.36208
2.37000
Support:
2.35182
2.34165
2.33445
Rationale
The impulse is strong, retail is 74% short and the kiwi keeps falling despite RBNZ hike bets. The plan buys a shallow dip with a 0.5 ATR volatility stop below the 2.35182 low, but RSI at 70 tempers the odds.
|
| AUDJPYWindow closed, entry filled, -0.3R |
Bearish
|
Medium
|
109.544 |
109.650Sell limit |
110.180 |
108.708 |
+0.09R |
1:1.78 |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Medium
Analysis Price
109.544
Entry Point
109.650
Order Type
Sell limit
Stop Loss
110.180
Conservative Target
108.708
Risk:Reward
1:1.78
Optimal Target
108.000
Stop Loss Distance
53.0 pips
Target Distance
94.2 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
110.110
110.890
111.650
Support:
109.235
108.708
108.000
Rationale
Lower closes and retail 64% long favour selling a bounce under the 110.11 hammer high, with the stop just above it. A hot Tokyo Core CPI at 19:30 NY and Japan's pledge to support the yen back the yen leg, while the China holiday thins Asian liquidity.
|
| EURJPYWindow closed, entry not reached |
Bearish
|
Low
|
177.794 |
177.950Sell limit |
178.650 |
176.771 |
+0.08R |
1:1.68 |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
177.794
Entry Point
177.950
Order Type
Sell limit
Stop Loss
178.650
Conservative Target
176.771
Risk:Reward
1:1.68
Optimal Target
176.000
Stop Loss Distance
70.0 pips
Target Distance
117.9 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
178.576
179.313
179.540
Support:
176.771
176.000
Rationale
Lower highs and a fresh 176.771 low favour selling a bounce under 178.576, with the stop just above it; this is part of the long-yen theme with AUDJPY and NZDJPY. Confidence is low because the euro CPI flash at 05:00 NY could squeeze the euro, although hotter national prints failed to lift it this week.
|
| EURCADStop hit 13:58 UTC |
Bearish
|
Low
|
1.59898 |
1.59970Sell limit |
1.60390 |
1.59500 |
+0.07R |
1:1.12 |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
1.59898
Entry Point
1.59970
Order Type
Sell limit
Stop Loss
1.60390
Conservative Target
1.59500
Risk:Reward
1:1.12
Optimal Target
1.59000
Stop Loss Distance
42.0 pips
Target Distance
47.0 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.60010
1.60340
1.61047
Support:
1.59778
1.59500
1.59000
Rationale
The break below the 1.6000 range floor, with retail 77% long, favours selling a retest under 1.6001, with the stop above 1.6034. The entry is shallow after a close near the low, and confidence is low because of the 05:00 NY euro CPI flash.
|
| NZDJPYWindow closed, entry filled, +0.1R |
Bearish
|
Medium
|
88.592 |
88.680Sell limit |
89.130 |
88.119 |
+0.07R |
1:1.25 |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Medium
Analysis Price
88.592
Entry Point
88.680
Order Type
Sell limit
Stop Loss
89.130
Conservative Target
88.119
Risk:Reward
1:1.25
Optimal Target
88.000
Stop Loss Distance
45.0 pips
Target Distance
56.1 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
89.072
89.515
90.545
Support:
88.119
88.000
87.500
Rationale
The broken 88.96 base, a fresh low and retail 78% long favour selling a bounce below 89.072, aiming to retest 88.119. Oversold RSI at 28 and a turning MACD histogram cap the odds, while Tokyo CPI at 19:30 NY is a yen-supportive risk.
|
| AUDCADStop hit 12:22 UTC |
Bearish
|
Medium
|
0.98535 |
0.98610Sell limit |
0.98900 |
0.98198 |
+0.07R |
1:1.42 |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Medium
Analysis Price
0.98535
Entry Point
0.98610
Order Type
Sell limit
Stop Loss
0.98900
Conservative Target
0.98198
Risk:Reward
1:1.42
Optimal Target
0.98052
Stop Loss Distance
29.0 pips
Target Distance
41.2 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.98843
0.99068
0.99257
Support:
0.98425
0.98198
0.98052
Rationale
Lower highs since 1.00127 and MACD below zero favour selling a bounce under the 0.98843 pivot, with the stop above it. This is part of the short-AUD theme with AUDJPY and GBPAUD, and retail at 50/50 adds no signal.
|
| AUDNZDWindow closed, entry filled, +0.6R |
Bullish
|
Low
|
1.23664 |
1.23580Buy limit |
1.23120 |
1.24376 |
+0.06R |
1:1.73 |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
1.23664
Entry Point
1.23580
Order Type
Buy limit
Stop Loss
1.23120
Conservative Target
1.24376
Risk:Reward
1:1.73
Optimal Target
1.24910
Stop Loss Distance
46.0 pips
Target Distance
79.6 pips
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.23773
1.24376
1.24910
Support:
1.23569
1.23185
1.22781
Rationale
A double bottom at 1.23185 with retail 67% short supports buying a dip, with the stop below that floor. This keeps the short-NZD theme while offsetting some AUD-short exposure; confidence is low in a range.
|
| EURUSD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.12457 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
1.12457
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.13300
1.13800
1.14357
Support:
1.12150
1.12000
Rationale
US Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings at 08:30 NY rule out a directional plan despite the bearish trend. RSI at 18.5 also leaves the pair stretched going into the release.
|
| GBPUSD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.31945 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
1.31945
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.32730
1.33110
1.33480
Support:
1.31808
1.31500
Rationale
US Non-Farm Payrolls at 08:30 NY: no directional plan. The test of 1.31808 is left until after the release.
|
| USDJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
158.102 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
158.102
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
158.452
159.033
159.780
Support:
158.026
157.240
156.380
Rationale
US Non-Farm Payrolls at 08:30 NY: no directional plan. Japan's PM has vowed to restore confidence in the yen, so buying toward 159-160 also carries intervention risk.
|
| USDCHF |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.83091 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
0.83091
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.83590
0.83826
0.84000
Support:
0.82920
0.82710
0.82290
Rationale
US Non-Farm Payrolls at 08:30 NY: no directional plan. The 1 October rejection from 0.83826 had already clouded the long bias.
|
| AUDUSD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.69303 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
0.69303
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.69602
0.69950
0.70240
Support:
0.69223
0.69097
0.69000
Rationale
US Non-Farm Payrolls at 08:30 NY: no directional plan. The short-AUD theme is carried by AUDJPY, AUDCAD and GBPAUD instead.
|
| USDCAD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.42217 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
1.42217
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.42628
1.43000
Support:
1.42000
1.41550
1.41320
Rationale
US Non-Farm Payrolls at 08:30 NY: no directional plan. RSI at 75 is overbought going into the release.
|
| NZDUSD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.56021 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
0.56021
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.56374
0.56770
0.56872
Support:
0.56000
0.55934
0.55750
Rationale
US Non-Farm Payrolls at 08:30 NY: no directional plan. The short-NZD theme is carried by NZDJPY, GBPNZD and AUDNZD.
|
| EURGBP |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.85196 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
0.85196
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.85474
0.85530
0.85831
Support:
0.85085
0.85000
0.84549
Rationale
Redundant with the short-EUR plans in EURJPY and EURCAD. A stop above 0.85474 leaves 0.8500 short of a 1:1 target, and the euro CPI flash at 05:00 NY adds risk.
|
| EURCHF |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.93423 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
0.93423
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.93493
0.93730
0.93942
Support:
0.93240
0.93073
0.92757
Rationale
The breakdown is valid, but this is redundant with the short-EUR plans in EURJPY and EURCAD. A third euro short ahead of the 05:00 NY CPI flash would stack one risk.
|
| EURAUD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.62284 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
1.62284
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.62523
1.63383
1.64130
Support:
1.62120
1.61616
1.60819
Rationale
The failed test of the September highs left flat momentum and a neutral bias, so there is no edge. The euro CPI flash at 05:00 NY adds noise.
|
| EURNZD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
2.00688 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
2.00688
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
2.01300
2.01652
2.02000
Support:
2.00260
2.00000
1.99403
Rationale
Buying the euro would cut against the short-EUR plans. The short-NZD theme is already carried by GBPNZD, NZDJPY and AUDNZD.
|
| GBPJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
208.641 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
208.641
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
209.999
210.898
211.283
Support:
207.871
207.592
207.200
Rationale
The pair is boxed in a month-long range with split momentum and a neutral bias. There is no edge.
|
| GBPCHF |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.09643 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
1.09643
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.09674
1.10059
1.10667
Support:
1.09519
1.09364
1.09136
Rationale
The failed break of 1.1105 left price in the middle of its range, with RSI 48 and MACD on its signal line. There is no direction to trade.
|
| GBPCAD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
1.87691 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
1.87691
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
1.87854
1.88522
1.88943
Support:
1.87611
1.87445
1.87127
Rationale
After rejecting 1.88943 the pair sits mid-range, with RSI near 50 and MACD at zero. There is no trend to trade.
|
| CADJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
111.165 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
111.165
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
111.303
111.520
112.591
Support:
110.803
110.549
110.170
Rationale
A range regime with MACD flat on its signal gives a weak edge. The long-yen theme is already carried by EURJPY, AUDJPY and NZDJPY.
|
| CHFJPY |
Neutral
|
Low
|
190.282 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
190.282
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
190.425
191.936
192.488
Support:
189.087
188.464
187.606
Rationale
The pair has a neutral bias inside the 187.6-192.5 range, with retail leaning long against the 1 October rally. There is no edge.
|
| AUDCHF |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.57574 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
0.57574
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.57810
0.57910
0.58229
Support:
0.57333
0.57000
0.56687
Rationale
This low-confidence range break is redundant with the short-AUD plans in AUDJPY, AUDCAD and GBPAUD.
|
| NZDCHF |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.46566 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
0.46566
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.46727
0.47086
0.47241
Support:
0.46500
0.46474
Rationale
With a stop above 0.46727, no listed support offers a 1:1 target. It is also redundant with the short-NZD plans in NZDJPY, GBPNZD and AUDNZD.
|
| NZDCAD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.79690 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
0.79690
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.79840
0.80260
0.80401
Support:
0.79662
0.79500
Rationale
A stop above 0.7984 leaves only 0.7950 as a target, barely at 1:1. It is redundant with the short-NZD plans in NZDJPY, GBPNZD and AUDNZD.
|
| CADCHF |
Neutral
|
Low
|
0.58434 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
0.58434
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
0.58644
0.58805
0.59078
Support:
0.58294
0.58226
0.57862
Rationale
The pair is rotating inside its monthly range with flat momentum and a neutral bias. There is no edge.
|
| XAUUSD |
Neutral
|
Low
|
4178.33 |
— |
— |
— |
— |
— |
Forecast Details
Confidence
Low
Analysis Price
4178.33
Entry Point
—
Order Type
—
Stop Loss
—
Conservative Target
—
Risk:Reward
—
Optimal Target
—
Stop Loss Distance
—
Target Distance
—
Key Levels
Resistance:
4193.02
4219.36
4244.30
Support:
4139.33
4110.88
4020.65
Rationale
US Non-Farm Payrolls at 08:30 NY: USD events count for gold, so there is no directional plan. Price is consolidating between 4110 and 4219 into the release.
|