Sponsor XTB - Trade with a Global Leader. 5,800+ instruments, commission-free stocks & ETFs, trusted by 1M+ clients.
START TRADING WITH XTB

Daily Forex Forecast

AI-generated forex forecasts for the next trading day, including precise entry points, targets and stop losses. Updated every evening ahead of the Asian session to provide you with actionable trading opportunities.

Forecast generated: Tuesday, 18 August 2026 Forecast for: Wednesday, 19 August 2026

Market Overview - Next 24 Hours

Reading guide: This overview provides a general outlook of market conditions expected for the next 24 hours of trading. It describes the overall sentiment of forex markets, the expected volatility level, key events to monitor, and the currency pairs presenting the best trading opportunities according to our artificial intelligence.

General Outlook

Broad USD softness continues to dominate, with EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD holding uptrends while USDCAD grinds to new lows and retail books remain heavily positioned against these moves. The JPY-cross complex (AUDJPY, CADJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY) offers the cleanest contrarian long cluster with 76-91% retail short and freshly positive MACD momentum. Gold stays the leading trend at record highs, while EUR-crosses against AUD/CAD/NZD remain the main fade-the-rally candidates as retail sits long.

Volatility Forecast

Medium

Key Events to Monitor

  • Asian session tone for the JPY crosses - AUDJPY holding 113.06 and EURJPY holding 184.53 would confirm the contrarian long cluster
  • London open test of GBPUSD 1.3554 resistance and AUDUSD 1.71198... AUDUSD 0.71198 resistance
  • New York session direction for USDCAD around the 1.39058 pivot; a rejection there targets 1.38616/1.38446
  • XAUUSD reaction to the 4351.87 support - a break below opens 4311.07, while a push through 4436.30 resumes the record-high trend

Best Opportunities

AUDCHF Bullish
AUDJPY Bullish
USDCAD Bearish

Top 3 Trading Opportunities

Trading with these forecasts: The opportunities presented here are selected based on their high probability of success in the next 24 hours. Each forecast includes precise entry points, stop loss levels, and multiple targets to help you structure your trade. The success probability and risk/reward ratio allow you to evaluate the potential of each operation.

AUDCHF

Bullish High Confidence
68% prob.
R/R 1:0.93
Entry Point 0.57540
Stop Loss 0.57250 (29.0 pips)
Conservative Target 0.57810 (27.0 pips)
Optimal Target 0.58000 (46.0 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.57810 0.58000 0.58200
Support: 0.57538 0.57418 0.57260

Rationale

Clean uptrend with RSI 63 and the most extreme crowd positioning on the board at 93% short. Buy dips to 0.5754/0.5742.

AUDJPY

Bullish High Confidence
68% prob.
R/R 1:0.73
Entry Point 113.060
Stop Loss 112.300 (76.0 pips)
Conservative Target 113.612 (55.2 pips)
Optimal Target 114.669 (160.9 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 113.612 114.669 115.000
Support: 113.061 112.749 112.184

Rationale

Consistent higher lows from 109.2 with an expanding positive MACD and 91% of retail short. Buy dips to 113.06 while 112.75 holds.

USDCAD

Bearish High Confidence
68% prob.
R/R 1:0.79
Entry Point 1.39050
Stop Loss 1.39600 (55.0 pips)
Conservative Target 1.38616 (43.4 pips)
Optimal Target 1.38446 (60.4 pips)

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.39058 1.39584 1.40130
Support: 1.38616 1.38446 1.38000

Rationale

Downtrend with lower highs, RSI 34 and 65% of retail buying the dip. Sell rallies into the 1.39058 pivot.

Complete Forecasts

Using the forecast table: This table shows forecasts for all major forex pairs. Use the filter controls to focus on specific directions (bullish, bearish, neutral) or confidence levels. Each forecast includes the expected direction, entry levels, stop loss and targets, as well as the estimated success probability. Click on a row to view additional details for that currency pair.

Pair Direction Confidence Analysis Price Entry Stop Loss Target Probability Risk:Reward

Forecast Details

Confidence Medium
Analysis Price 1.15774
Entry Point 1.15640
Stop Loss 1.15100
Conservative Target 1.15854
Risk:Reward 1:0.40
Optimal Target 1.16140
Stop Loss Distance 54.0 pips
Target Distance 21.4 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.15854 1.16140 1.16500
Support: 1.15642 1.15400 1.15118

Rationale

Higher-low structure with positive MACD and 62% retail short supports buying dips into 1.1564. Invalidation only below the 1.15118 support.

Forecast Details

Confidence High
Analysis Price 1.35351
Entry Point 1.35210
Stop Loss 1.34700
Conservative Target 1.35540
Risk:Reward 1:0.65
Optimal Target 1.35712
Stop Loss Distance 51.0 pips
Target Distance 33.0 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.35540 1.35712 1.36000
Support: 1.35195 1.34743 1.34344

Rationale

Clean uptrend with 71% direction probability and 75% of retail short as a contrarian tailwind. Longs favoured while 1.34743 holds.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 159.589
Entry Point 158.900
Stop Loss 158.200
Conservative Target 159.600
Risk:Reward 1:1.00
Optimal Target 159.780
Stop Loss Distance 70.0 pips
Target Distance 70.0 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 159.780 160.880 162.770
Support: 158.850 158.600 157.600

Rationale

Post-crash consolidation between 158.60 and 159.78 with flat momentum offers no directional edge. Only range-extreme trades are justified.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 0.81214
Entry Point 0.81050
Stop Loss 0.80690
Conservative Target 0.81396
Risk:Reward 1:0.96
Optimal Target 0.81470
Stop Loss Distance 36.0 pips
Target Distance 34.6 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.81396 0.81470 0.82069
Support: 0.81038 0.80721 0.80566

Rationale

Choppy 0.8057-0.8147 band with RSI at 51 and balanced retail positioning. Buy the lower edge, sell the upper edge only.

Forecast Details

Confidence High
Analysis Price 0.70858
Entry Point 0.70810
Stop Loss 0.70520
Conservative Target 0.71198
Risk:Reward 1:1.34
Optimal Target 0.71294
Stop Loss Distance 29.0 pips
Target Distance 38.8 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.71198 0.71294 0.71500
Support: 0.70811 0.70541 0.70223

Rationale

Steady higher highs with positive MACD and an extreme 84% retail short reading. Pullbacks into 0.7081/0.7054 are the buy zone.

Forecast Details

Confidence High
Analysis Price 1.39045
Entry Point 1.39050
Stop Loss 1.39600
Conservative Target 1.38616
Risk:Reward 1:0.79
Optimal Target 1.38446
Stop Loss Distance 55.0 pips
Target Distance 43.4 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.39058 1.39584 1.40130
Support: 1.38616 1.38446 1.38000

Rationale

Downtrend with lower highs, RSI 34 and 65% of retail buying the dip. Sell rallies into the 1.39058 pivot.

Forecast Details

Confidence Medium
Analysis Price 0.58746
Entry Point 0.58720
Stop Loss 0.58530
Conservative Target 0.59088
Risk:Reward 1:1.94
Optimal Target 0.59262
Stop Loss Distance 19.0 pips
Target Distance 36.8 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.59088 0.59262 0.59500
Support: 0.58721 0.58597 0.58214

Rationale

Grinding uptrend with 65% retail short, though momentum is fading below the 0.5926 cap. Longs valid while 0.58597 holds.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 0.85536
Entry Point 0.85470
Stop Loss 0.85290
Conservative Target 0.85598
Risk:Reward 1:0.71
Optimal Target 0.85842
Stop Loss Distance 18.0 pips
Target Distance 12.8 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.85598 0.85842 0.86000
Support: 0.85464 0.85426 0.85318

Rationale

Tight 0.8532-0.8560 consolidation with RSI 46 and balanced retail books. Only a break of either edge gives a signal.

Forecast Details

Confidence Medium
Analysis Price 184.764
Entry Point 184.530
Stop Loss 183.550
Conservative Target 184.909
Risk:Reward 1:0.39
Optimal Target 185.905
Stop Loss Distance 98.0 pips
Target Distance 37.9 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 184.909 185.905 187.471
Support: 184.534 184.117 183.600

Rationale

Recovery from 181.3 with MACD histogram turning positive and an extreme 86% retail short. Buy dips while 183.60 holds.

Forecast Details

Confidence High
Analysis Price 0.94025
Entry Point 0.93900
Stop Loss 0.93690
Conservative Target 0.94113
Risk:Reward 1:1.01
Optimal Target 0.94400
Stop Loss Distance 21.0 pips
Target Distance 21.3 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.94113 0.94400 0.94600
Support: 0.93848 0.93734 0.93585

Rationale

Persistent higher lows with RSI 67 and 89% of retail short - a textbook squeeze setup. Longs above 0.93734 target beyond 0.94113.

Forecast Details

Confidence Medium
Analysis Price 1.63390
Entry Point 1.63580
Stop Loss 1.64180
Conservative Target 1.63008
Risk:Reward 1:0.95
Optimal Target 1.62704
Stop Loss Distance 60.0 pips
Target Distance 57.2 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.63584 1.64130 1.65045
Support: 1.63008 1.62704 1.62566

Rationale

Rolling lower inside the 1.6261-1.6413 range with RSI below 50 and 78% of retail long. Fade rallies into 1.6358.

Forecast Details

Confidence Medium
Analysis Price 1.60974
Entry Point 1.61130
Stop Loss 1.61600
Conservative Target 1.60442
Risk:Reward 1:1.46
Optimal Target 1.60076
Stop Loss Distance 47.0 pips
Target Distance 68.8 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.61130 1.61350 1.62431
Support: 1.60442 1.60397 1.60076

Rationale

Lower highs since 1.6248 with RSI 47 and 71% of retail positioned long. Sell strength under the 1.6135 resistance.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 1.97073
Entry Point 1.97300
Stop Loss 1.98000
Conservative Target 1.96057
Risk:Reward 1:1.78
Optimal Target 1.95796
Stop Loss Distance 70.0 pips
Target Distance 124.3 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.97321 1.97771 1.98321
Support: 1.96057 1.95796 1.95502

Rationale

Two-week 1.955-1.978 range with no trend structure and 68% retail long capping upside. Only range-edge fades make sense.

Forecast Details

Confidence Medium
Analysis Price 216.008
Entry Point 215.450
Stop Loss 214.300
Conservative Target 216.219
Risk:Reward 1:0.67
Optimal Target 218.014
Stop Loss Distance 115.0 pips
Target Distance 76.9 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 216.219 218.014 218.684
Support: 215.412 214.789 212.540

Rationale

Grinding higher from 209.6 with a positive MACD histogram and an extreme 89% retail short. Buy dips to 215.41 while above 214.79.

Forecast Details

Confidence High
Analysis Price 1.09921
Entry Point 1.09850
Stop Loss 1.09490
Conservative Target 1.10112
Risk:Reward 1:0.73
Optimal Target 1.10300
Stop Loss Distance 36.0 pips
Target Distance 26.2 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.10112 1.10300 1.10600
Support: 1.09534 1.08527

Rationale

Impulsive advance from 1.0858 with RSI 67 and 84% of retail short. A break of 1.10112 opens the 1.1030-1.1060 zone.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 1.91016
Entry Point 1.91050
Stop Loss 1.91950
Conservative Target 1.90764
Risk:Reward 1:0.32
Optimal Target 1.90176
Stop Loss Distance 90.0 pips
Target Distance 28.6 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.91048 1.91913 1.92601
Support: 1.90764 1.90176 1.90032

Rationale

Flat 1.9018-1.9191 range with RSI at 50 but 64% of retail long. Small shorts near the 1.91048 cap with a stop above 1.9191.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 1.88191
Entry Point 1.88110
Stop Loss 1.87500
Conservative Target 1.88460
Risk:Reward 1:0.57
Optimal Target 1.89536
Stop Loss Distance 61.0 pips
Target Distance 35.0 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.88460 1.89536 1.90330
Support: 1.88106 1.87530 1.87388

Rationale

Directionless between 1.8753 and 1.8846 with neutral RSI and balanced retail books. Wait for the range to resolve before sizing up.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 2.30398
Entry Point 2.29650
Stop Loss 2.28800
Conservative Target 2.30532
Risk:Reward 1:1.04
Optimal Target 2.31043
Stop Loss Distance 85.0 pips
Target Distance 88.2 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 2.30532 2.31043 2.31500
Support: 2.29628 2.28871 2.28049

Rationale

Choppy 2.2805-2.3150 range with improving MACD but no trend structure. Only a close above 2.31043 would justify trend longs.

Forecast Details

Confidence High
Analysis Price 113.083
Entry Point 113.060
Stop Loss 112.300
Conservative Target 113.612
Risk:Reward 1:0.73
Optimal Target 114.669
Stop Loss Distance 76.0 pips
Target Distance 55.2 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 113.612 114.669 115.000
Support: 113.061 112.749 112.184

Rationale

Consistent higher lows from 109.2 with an expanding positive MACD and 91% of retail short. Buy dips to 113.06 while 112.75 holds.

Forecast Details

Confidence Medium
Analysis Price 114.780
Entry Point 114.640
Stop Loss 113.900
Conservative Target 115.205
Risk:Reward 1:0.76
Optimal Target 116.024
Stop Loss Distance 74.0 pips
Target Distance 56.5 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 115.205 116.024 116.472
Support: 114.636 113.991 113.318

Rationale

Fresh bullish MACD cross in a recovery from 110.8 with 76% of retail short. Longs valid while 113.99 holds.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 93.753
Entry Point 93.730
Stop Loss 93.200
Conservative Target 94.042
Risk:Reward 1:0.59
Optimal Target 94.297
Stop Loss Distance 53.0 pips
Target Distance 31.2 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 94.042 94.297 95.309
Support: 93.725 93.257 92.816

Rationale

Recovery stalling below 94.30 with the MACD histogram turning negative and only mild retail short bias. Small longs above 93.725, no chasing.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 196.510
Entry Point 196.400
Stop Loss 195.400
Conservative Target 197.024
Risk:Reward 1:0.62
Optimal Target 198.100
Stop Loss Distance 100.0 pips
Target Distance 62.4 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 197.024 198.100 200.956
Support: 196.386 195.472 194.233

Rationale

Sideways 195.4-197.0 after the crash with RSI 44 and MACD still negative. Neutral until 197.024 is cleared.

Forecast Details

Confidence High
Analysis Price 0.57546
Entry Point 0.57540
Stop Loss 0.57250
Conservative Target 0.57810
Risk:Reward 1:0.93
Optimal Target 0.58000
Stop Loss Distance 29.0 pips
Target Distance 27.0 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.57810 0.58000 0.58200
Support: 0.57538 0.57418 0.57260

Rationale

Clean uptrend with RSI 63 and the most extreme crowd positioning on the board at 93% short. Buy dips to 0.5754/0.5742.

Forecast Details

Confidence Low
Analysis Price 0.98521
Entry Point 0.98430
Stop Loss 0.98040
Conservative Target 0.98749
Risk:Reward 1:0.82
Optimal Target 0.98859
Stop Loss Distance 39.0 pips
Target Distance 31.9 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.98749 0.98859 0.99257
Support: 0.98428 0.98198 0.98052

Rationale

Flat 0.9820-0.9880 range with neutral momentum but 67% of retail short. Favour longs from the 0.98428 base.

Forecast Details

Confidence Medium
Analysis Price 1.20617
Entry Point 1.20430
Stop Loss 1.19990
Conservative Target 1.20912
Risk:Reward 1:1.10
Optimal Target 1.21025
Stop Loss Distance 44.0 pips
Target Distance 48.2 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 1.20912 1.21025 1.21213
Support: 1.20327 1.20011 1.19419

Rationale

Recovery from 1.1914 with a positive MACD histogram and 75% of retail short. Longs above 1.20327 target the 1.2121 pivot.

Forecast Details

Confidence Medium
Analysis Price 0.47709
Entry Point 0.47660
Stop Loss 0.47390
Conservative Target 0.47736
Risk:Reward 1:0.28
Optimal Target 0.47925
Stop Loss Distance 27.0 pips
Target Distance 7.6 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.47736 0.47925 0.48175
Support: 0.47640 0.47408 0.47100

Rationale

Breakout above the 0.4770 ceiling with RSI 60 and 82% of retail short, though momentum is cooling. Buy dips while 0.47408 holds.

Forecast Details

Confidence Medium
Analysis Price 0.81680
Entry Point 0.81930
Stop Loss 0.82330
Conservative Target 0.81430
Risk:Reward 1:1.25
Optimal Target 0.81185
Stop Loss Distance 40.0 pips
Target Distance 50.0 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.81934 0.82121 0.82320
Support: 0.81430 0.81185 0.80536

Rationale

Lower highs from 0.8297 with negative MACD while 59% of retail is long. Sell rallies below the 0.82121 resistance.

Forecast Details

Confidence Medium
Analysis Price 0.58409
Entry Point 0.58280
Stop Loss 0.57970
Conservative Target 0.58616
Risk:Reward 1:1.08
Optimal Target 0.58644
Stop Loss Distance 31.0 pips
Target Distance 33.6 pips

Key Levels

Resistance: 0.58616 0.58644 0.58800
Support: 0.58272 0.57976 0.57744

Rationale

Steady uptrend from 0.5740 with RSI 64 and positive MACD, sentiment mildly contrarian-bullish. Buy dips to 0.58272 while above 0.57976.

Forecast Details

Confidence Medium
Analysis Price 4358.22
Entry Point 4330.00
Stop Loss 4238.00
Conservative Target 4436.30
Risk:Reward 1:1.16
Optimal Target 4449.63
Stop Loss Distance 92.0 pts
Target Distance 106.3 pts

Key Levels

Resistance: 4436.30 4449.63 4500.00
Support: 4351.87 4311.07 4241.17

Rationale

Breakout from the 4020-4120 base with the MACD histogram still expanding makes consolidation under 4450 corrective. Buy dips toward 4311 with ATR-wide stops given the 89-point ATR.

Historical Accuracy

Interpreting accuracy: This section shows the accuracy statistics of our past forecasts. The overall success rate indicates the percentage of forecasts that reached the conservative target without hitting the stop loss. Accuracy is also broken down by direction (bullish, bearish, neutral) and by currency pair to help you identify the areas where our system is most reliable.

No verified forecasts yet. Each forecast is automatically verified against real market candles once its target day has ended, so the first accuracy statistics appear a couple of days after the first published forecast, then update daily. Check back soon.

Forecast Methodology

How We Generate Forecasts

Our daily forex forecasts use an advanced system that combines technical analysis, sentiment data, algorithmic indicators and artificial intelligence to identify high-probability trading opportunities for the next 24 hours.

The forecasting process is structured in four main phases:

  1. Data Collection: We aggregate market data from reliable specialized providers, along with historical data for analysis.
  2. Technical Analysis: We calculate key indicators such as RSI, MACD and ATR and identify significant support and resistance levels across multiple timeframes.
  3. AI Integration: Our artificial intelligence model analyzes all factors, identifies high-probability patterns and generates specific forecasts with entry points, stop loss and targets.
  4. Verification and Optimization: Forecasts are continuously verified against actual results, with accuracy data used to constantly improve the algorithm.

Forecasts are generated every evening (European time), ahead of the Asian trading session, and cover the next trading day.

How to Use These Forecasts

Forecast Components

  • Direction: The expected price orientation (Bullish, Bearish, Neutral) for the next 24 hours
  • Entry Point: The optimal price level to enter the market
  • Stop Loss: The level to limit losses if the market moves contrary to the forecast
  • Targets: Two price objectives - a conservative one with higher probability and an optimal one with greater potential
  • Success Probability: The estimated percentage that the forecast will reach at least the conservative target
  • Risk/Reward Ratio: The ratio between potential gain and potential loss

Trading Implementation

  • Focus on high confidence forecasts (70%+ success probability)
  • Always use the indicated stop losses to manage risk
  • Consider taking partial profit at the conservative target
  • Adjust position size based on expected volatility
  • Monitor key support and resistance levels for potential deviations
  • Use these forecasts as part of a complete trading strategy, not as the sole decision source

Important: Even forecasts with high success probability do not guarantee future results. These are statistical tools based on historical patterns and current market conditions. Always use appropriate risk management and consider these forecasts as valuable inputs for your trading decisions, not as automatic instructions.

Trade with XTB

One of the largest stock exchange-listed brokers with 20+ years of experience. Trade 5,800+ instruments across Forex, Indices, Commodities, Stocks and ETFs with the advanced xStation platform. Trusted by 1M+ clients worldwide.

START TRADING NOW
ForexSentiment App
ForexSentiment Forex Sentiment & AI Signals
App Store Google Play
Telegram Icon