The Signal Overview at the top weighs five of the readings above into one score, and the setups worth acting on are the ones where the factors that voted agree. Every pair ranked: Signals. Today's plans: Daily Forecast.
AUD/JPY Analysis
Comprehensive analysis for AUDJPY showing a moderate bearish bias (medium confidence) with 64% bearish signal balance across the weighted factors. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.
View AUDJPY sentiment overview
AI analyst comment
AUDJPY has carved lower highs since the 112.616 spike on Sep 18, sliding to 108.703 on Oct 1. Oct 2 held a higher low at 109.218 and closed at 109.768. MACD is widening below its signal with a -0.12 histogram, and RSI 36 sits beneath the midline, keeping sellers in charge. Retail at 60% long sits on the threshold and adds only marginal contrarian weight. Rallies into 110.104-110.888 remain sell zones; a break of 108.703 extends the trend, while a close above 110.888 would end it.
Signal Overview
Bearish
Medium Confidence
Very high Volatility
Signal Balance:
36% Long
64% Short
Signal strength
27%
Factor agreement
88% of weight
Factor detail
Strength
14%
Patterns
12%
S/R
27%
HP Zones
47%
Sentiment
retail positioning too balanced to count (60% long)
—
Signal Analysis:
The analysis indicates a medium confidence bearish bias for AUDJPY (signal strength: 27%). Supporting factors include: High probability (76%) resistance zone detected at 109.892; Price is near a resistance level at 109.892 (0.06% above current price); AUD is showing relative weakness against JPY (diff: 18%). Volatility on this pair is currently very high.
AI Daily Forecast
SHORT
Sell limit Expected result +0.09 × your risk estimate
Entry109.650
Stop110.180
Target 1108.708
Target 2108.000
Risk / reward1:1.78
Lower closes and retail 64% long favour selling a bounce under the 110.11 hammer high, with the stop just above it. A hot Tokyo Core CPI at 19:30 NY and Japan's pledge to support the yen back the yen leg, while the China holiday thins Asian liquidity.
Not the signal above, which is a score refreshed every three hours: this plan is written once a night, for one session. The full board.
Sentiment Analysis
Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (60% long / 40% short). The overall bearish bias (64%) mentioned in the page header represents our signal balance based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.
LONG
SHORT
60%
40%
Historical Sentiment
Sentiment Interpretation
Retail leans long (60%). Our signals read positioning contrarian and weigh it by how one-sided it is: near 60/40 it barely registers, and its weight grows with the imbalance - full strength only comes near a true 90/10 extreme.
Price and retail positioning
The same retail long % as above, over the whole archive and drawn against the price. Candles from 15 minutes to monthly.
Retail
Open AUD/JPY on TradingViewCharts drawn with TradingView Lightweight Charts™ · Copyright (с) 2025 TradingView, Inc.
Daily candles from our broker price feed, 2 October 2023 to 2 October 2026 (bid prices; the day closes at 17:00 New York); weekly and monthly candles are built from them. Drag to pan; scroll, drag the time axis or pinch to zoom. On a touch screen, drag the price scale with one finger to move the chart up or down, with two to stretch it, and double-tap it to reset.
The 15-minute, hourly and four-hour candles come from the same feed and load when you pick them; older ones load by themselves as you scroll left, back to the start of the archive. Four-hour candles open at 17:00, 21:00, 01:00, 05:00, 09:00 and 13:00 New York, as on TradingView. Their last candle is still forming and refreshes about every minute while the view is open. On those views the retail positioning is drawn as steps: it is a snapshot every 3 hours, not a minute-by-minute reading.
Retail positioning: daily snapshots since 12 May 2025, 464 so far · latest 60% long at 2 Oct 21:00 UTC; on the weekly and monthly views it is the average of the trading days. From 60% on one side it counts as crowded and from 75% as extreme, the same three states the Trade Panel shows. The positioning is refreshed every 3 hours on weekdays, not real-time.
Want this retail positioning on your MT5 charts? The Trade Panel puts it inside MetaTrader 5 for all 29 markets, next to our signal and the AI plan of the day, and the Chart Panel, new in 1.8, draws them on the chart you trade. One license covers both panels.
Discover the panelSupport & Resistance Analysis
Arithmetic pivots for this pair are pre-filled in the AUDJPY pivot point calculator.
Analysis Price:
109.822
Market price now109.791Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
Between S1 109.666 (12.5 pips below) and R1 109.892 (10.1 pips above)
Resistance Levels
R1:
109.892
0.06%
↑
R2:
110.104
0.26%
↑
R3:
110.888
0.97%
↑
R4:
112.616
2.54%
↑
Support Levels
S1:
109.666
0.14%
↓
S2:
109.233
0.54%
↓
S3:
108.886
0.85%
↓
S4:
108.703
1.02%
↓
Market Regime:
Downtrend
AI Bias:
Bearish
Price Position Analysis
Price is currently near resistance at 109.892 (0.06% above analysis price) with support at 109.666 (0.14% below). This position near resistance could present a potential selling opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Chart Pattern Analysis
D1
74%
Morning Star
Reliability:
Detected: Oct 2, 00:00 · last closed bar
H4
59%
Shooting Star
Reliability:
Detected: Oct 2, 17:00 · last closed bar
H1
50%
Doji
Reliability:
Detected: Oct 2, 17:00 · 3 H1 bars ago · fading
D1
71%
Evening Star
Reliability:
Detected: Sep 23, 00:00 · 7 D1 bars ago · fading
Pattern Analysis Interpretation
Predominantly bearish patterns detected across timeframes, suggesting downward pressure. The most relevant formation right now is a bullish Morning Star on D1, documented at 74% historical reliability for that pattern type and printed on the last closed bar. The same bearish reading appears on 2 timeframes, which is worth more than a single chart agreeing with itself.
High Probability Zones
Resistance Zone
76%
Zone Band (2 levels):
109.892 – 110.104
Analysis Price:
109.822
Distance:
0.06%
Market price now109.791Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
10.1 pips below the zone
Confluence Factors:
Context (not scored):
Support Zone
62%
Zone Level:
109.666
Analysis Price:
109.822
Distance:
0.14%
Market price now109.791Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
12.5 pips above the zone
Confluence Factors:
Context (not scored):
Resistance Zone
54%
Zone Level:
110.888
Analysis Price:
109.822
Distance:
0.97%
Market price now109.791Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
109.7 pips below the zone
Confluence Factors:
Context (not scored):
Support Zone
51%
Zone Level:
108.886
Analysis Price:
109.822
Distance:
0.85%
Market price now109.791Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
90.5 pips above the zone
Confluence Factors:
Context (not scored):
Support Zone
51%
Zone Level:
109.233
Analysis Price:
109.822
Distance:
0.54%
Market price now109.791Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
55.8 pips above the zone
Confluence Factors:
Context (not scored):
High Probability Zones Interpretation
Price is sitting right on the strongest resistance zone we scored for this pair, at 109.892 (confluence score 76%). The score comes from 4 factors converging here: a shooting star formed at the level, a 21.4% retracement of the 30-day range, a psychological round number and 2 distinct tests in the last 30 days.
5 zones were scored for this pair: 3 below the analysis price and 2 above it.
Volatility Analysis
Select Timeframe:
Daily Range (pips):
92.6
Volatility Regime:
Extreme
Volatility Level:
97%
10-Day ATR Trend
Volatility Interpretation (D1)
AUDJPY is currently showing extreme volatility (97 percentile) with an expected range of 92.6 pips per session. This indicates potentially rapid price movements that create both opportunity and risk. Consider wider stop losses (1.5-2x normal size) and reduced position sizes to manage the elevated risk.
Correlation Analysis
Top Correlations with AUDJPY
EURJPY
0.83
NZDJPY
0.82
GBPJPY
0.81
CHFJPY
0.81
CADJPY
0.78
Correlation Interpretation
AUDJPY shows strong positive correlation with: EURJPY, NZDJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, CADJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.
Currency Strength Analysis
Select Timeframe:
Weighted across timeframes the way our signal reads it (daily counts most), AUD vs JPY comes out at -0.18 — bearish for AUDJPY. Individual tabs can disagree with it: shorter windows swing more.
AUD
-0.36
Weak
vs
JPY
0.14
Neutral
Relative Strength:
-0.50
Bearish Bias
Currency Strength Interpretation (D1)
JPY is moderately stronger than AUD on the D1 timeframe, with a relative strength of -0.50. This suggests a mild bearish bias for AUDJPY. Monitor for additional confirmation signals before entering a short position.
How to Use This Analysis
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