AUDJPY Bearish

Analysis Price: 113.587 (Updated: 20 May 2026, 18:10 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for AUDJPY showing a predominantly bearish bias with 58% bearish signal balance based on combined analytical factors. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish Medium Confidence Medium Risk

Signal Balance:

42% Long

58% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a medium confidence bearish bias for AUDJPY (signal strength: 16%). Supporting factors include: AUD is showing relative weakness against JPY (diff: 28%); Retail sentiment is 59% bearish. Risk assessment for this trade is medium. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

42% 58%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Neutral sentiment with a balanced distribution between long and short positions. This suggests indecision in the market, which could precede a significant move once a clear direction emerges.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 114.175 0.52% ↑

Analysis Price: 113.587

Support Levels

S1: 112.730 0.75% ↓

Market Regime:

Range

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

70%

Price Position Analysis

Price is between support at 112.730 (0.75% below analysis price) and resistance at 114.175 (0.52% above), with slightly closer proximity to resistance. Watch for rejection confirmation at resistance or break above.

Chart Pattern Analysis

57%

Symmetric Triangle

Reliability:

57%

Detected: May 20, 07:38

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly neutral patterns detected, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. The most reliable pattern is a neutral Symmetric Triangle on the H4 timeframe with 57% historical reliability. This pattern is currently only confirmed on the H4 timeframe.

High Probability Zones

No high probability zones detected for AUDJPY at this time.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

0.4

Volatility Regime:

Low

Volatility Level:

13%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

AUDJPY is exhibiting low volatility (13 percentile) with an expected daily range of just 0.4 pips. This reduced movement typically indicates consolidation or indecision in the market. Consider tighter stop losses but be aware that breakout potential increases after periods of low volatility.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with AUDJPY

NZDJPY

0.82

EURJPY

0.81

CADJPY

0.78

AUDNZD

0.77

USDJPY

0.74

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how AUDJPY correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

AUDJPY shows strong positive correlation with: NZDJPY, EURJPY, CADJPY, AUDNZD, USDJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

AUD

-0.55

Weak

JPY

0.89

Very-strong

Relative Strength:

-1.44

Bearish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

JPY is significantly stronger than AUD on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -1.44. This suggests a strong bearish bias for AUDJPY. With JPY showing absolute strength and AUD showing absolute weakness, this is an ideal scenario for a short position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on AUDJPY to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.