AUDJPY Bearish

Analysis Price: 101.06 (Updated: 16 November 2025, 16:41 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for AUDJPY showing a predominantly bearish bias with 63% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish Medium Confidence High Risk

Market Consensus:

37% Long

63% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a medium confidence bearish bias for AUDJPY (signal strength: 27%). Supporting factors include: Retail sentiment is 68% bearish; AUD is showing relative weakness against JPY (diff: 33%). Risk assessment for this trade is high. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

32% 68%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Bearish sentiment with 68% of traders holding short positions. The market has a negative bias, but watch for signs of exhaustion if this percentage increases further.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 101.83 0.76% ↑

Analysis Price: 101.06

Support Levels

S1: 100.23 0.83% ↓

Market Regime:

Uptrend

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

70%

Price Position Analysis

Price is between support at 100.23 (0.83% below analysis price) and resistance at 101.83 (0.76% above), with slightly closer proximity to resistance. Watch for rejection confirmation at resistance or break above.

Chart Pattern Analysis

No chart patterns detected for AUDJPY at this time.

High Probability Zones

Resistance Zone

95%

Zone Level:

102.00

analysis price:

101.06

Distance:

0.93%

Confluence Factors:

Bearish Engulfing 50% Retracement

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is approaching a high probability (95%) resistance zone at 102.00, currently 0.93% away. Consider preparing a sell strategy as price approaches this level, watching for confirmation signals.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

0.5

Volatility Regime:

Normal

Volatility Level:

61%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

AUDJPY is showing normal volatility (61 percentile) with an expected daily range of 0.5 pips. This represents average market conditions conducive to standard trading strategies. Standard position sizing and stop loss parameters are appropriate.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with AUDJPY

EURJPY

0.90

AUDCAD

0.84

AUDCHF

0.73

AUDNZD

0.70

AUDUSD

0.68

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how AUDJPY correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

AUDJPY shows strong positive correlation with: EURJPY, AUDCAD, AUDCHF, AUDNZD. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

AUD

-0.92

Very-weak

JPY

-0.69

Weak

Relative Strength:

-0.23

Neutral Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

JPY is moderately stronger than AUD on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -0.23. This suggests a mild bearish bias for AUDJPY. Monitor for additional confirmation signals before entering a short position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on AUDJPY to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.