AUDJPY Bearish

Analysis Price: 104.59 (Updated: 31 December 2025, 23:21 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for AUDJPY showing a predominantly bearish bias with 72% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish High Confidence Very high Risk

Market Consensus:

28% Long

72% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a high confidence bearish bias for AUDJPY (signal strength: 43%). Supporting factors include: Retail sentiment is 71% bearish; Technical patterns identified: Evening Star (H4); AUD is showing relative weakness against JPY (diff: 24%). Risk assessment for this trade is very high. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

27% 73%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Bearish sentiment with 73% of traders holding short positions. The market has a negative bias, but watch for signs of exhaustion if this percentage increases further.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 105.21 0.59% ↑

Analysis Price: 104.59

Support Levels

S1: 104.01 0.56% ↓

Market Regime:

Range

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

65%

Price Position Analysis

Price is between support at 104.01 (0.56% below analysis price) and resistance at 105.21 (0.59% above), with slightly closer proximity to support. Watch for bounce confirmation at support or break below.

Chart Pattern Analysis

No chart patterns detected for AUDJPY at this time.

High Probability Zones

No high probability zones detected for AUDJPY at this time.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

0.4

Volatility Regime:

Low

Volatility Level:

10%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

AUDJPY is exhibiting low volatility (10 percentile) with an expected daily range of just 0.4 pips. This reduced movement typically indicates consolidation or indecision in the market. Consider tighter stop losses but be aware that breakout potential increases after periods of low volatility.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with AUDJPY

USDJPY

0.87

NZDJPY

0.78

GBPJPY

0.77

AUDCHF

0.77

CHFJPY

0.68

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how AUDJPY correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

AUDJPY shows strong positive correlation with: USDJPY, NZDJPY, GBPJPY, AUDCHF. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

AUD

-0.28

Neutral

JPY

-0.56

Weak

Relative Strength:

0.28

Neutral Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

AUD is moderately stronger than JPY on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of 0.28. This suggests a mild bullish bias for AUDJPY. Monitor for additional confirmation signals before entering a long position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on AUDJPY to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.