AUDJPY Neutral

Analysis Price: 112.953 (Updated: 19 August 2026, 00:17 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for AUDJPY showing neutral market bias. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

View AUDJPY sentiment overview

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Signal Overview

Neutral Low Confidence High Risk

Signal Balance:

49% Long

51% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a neutral outlook for AUDJPY. Supporting factors include: High probability (74%) resistance zone detected at 113.612. Contradicting factors: Price is near a support level at 112.749 (0.18% below current price); Retail sentiment is 72% bearish. Risk assessment for this trade is high.

Sentiment Analysis

Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (28% long / 72% short). The overall neutral bias (51%) mentioned in the page header represents our signal balance based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.

LONG SHORT

28% 72%

Historical Sentiment

Sentiment Interpretation

Bearish sentiment with 72% of traders holding short positions. The market has a negative bias, but watch for signs of exhaustion if this percentage increases further.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Analysis Price: 112.953

Resistance Levels

R1: 113.612 0.58% ↑

R2: 114.669 1.52% ↑

R3: 115.000 1.81% ↑

Support Levels

S1: 112.749 0.18% ↓

S2: 112.184 0.68% ↓

S3: 111.198 1.55% ↓

Market Regime:

Uptrend

Analyst Bias:

Bullish

Analyst Comment:

Consistent higher lows since 109.24 with MACD histogram expanding and 87% of retail short. Buy dips to 112.75 targeting 113.61 then 114.67.

Direction Probability:

67%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near support at 112.749 (0.18% below analysis price) with resistance at 113.612 (0.58% above). This position near support could present a potential buying opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

78%

Three Black Crows

Reliability:

78%

Detected: Aug 19, 00:00

78%

Three Black Crows

Reliability:

78%

Detected: Aug 18, 20:00

78%

Three Black Crows

Reliability:

78%

Detected: Aug 19, 00:00

78%

Three Black Crows

Reliability:

78%

Detected: Aug 18, 17:00

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly bearish patterns detected across timeframes, suggesting downward pressure. The most reliable pattern is a bearish Three Black Crows on the H4 timeframe with 78% historical reliability. Multiple timeframes showing pattern confirmation increases the reliability of the signal.

High Probability Zones

Resistance Zone

74%

Zone Level:

113.612

analysis price:

112.953

Distance:

0.48%

Confluence Factors:

Three Black Crows 79% Retracement

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Resistance Zone

71%

Zone Level:

114.000

analysis price:

112.953

Distance:

0.83%

Confluence Factors:

Three Black Crows

Valid on Timeframes:

Support Zone

57%

Zone Level:

112.184

analysis price:

112.953

Distance:

0.78%

Confluence Factors:

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 D1 W1

Support Zone

57%

Zone Level:

112.749

analysis price:

112.953

Distance:

0.28%

Confluence Factors:

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is extremely close to a high probability (74%) resistance zone at 113.612. This presents a potential selling opportunity with stop loss slightly above the zone. Multiple confluence factors strengthen this level's significance.

Multiple high probability zones exist for this pair, indicating a well-structured technical environment with clear levels for trading decisions.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

9.2

Volatility Regime:

Low

Volatility Level:

23%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

AUDJPY is exhibiting low volatility (23 percentile) with an expected daily range of just 9.2 pips. This reduced movement typically indicates consolidation or indecision in the market. Consider tighter stop losses but be aware that breakout potential increases after periods of low volatility.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with AUDJPY

CHFJPY

0.84

EURJPY

0.83

GBPJPY

0.82

CADJPY

0.80

USDJPY

0.79

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how AUDJPY correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

AUDJPY shows strong positive correlation with: CHFJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY, CADJPY, USDJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

AUD

-1.00

Very-weak

JPY

0.79

Very-strong

Relative Strength:

-1.79

Bearish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

JPY is significantly stronger than AUD on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -1.79. This suggests a strong bearish bias for AUDJPY. With JPY showing absolute strength and AUD showing absolute weakness, this is an ideal scenario for a short position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on AUDJPY to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.