AUDJPY Bullish

Analysis Price: 114.257 (Updated: 15 May 2026, 02:11 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for AUDJPY showing a predominantly bullish bias with 73% bullish signal balance based on combined analytical factors. Raw trader sentiment shows 33% long, 67% short. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bullish Medium Confidence High Risk

Signal Balance:

73% Long

27% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a medium confidence bullish bias for AUDJPY (signal strength: 46%). Supporting factors include: High probability (95%) support zone detected at 114.1389; Technical patterns identified: Hammer (H4). Contradicting factors: Retail sentiment is 67% bearish; AUD is showing relative weakness against JPY (diff: 23%). Risk assessment for this trade is high. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (33% long / 67% short). The overall bullish bias (73%) mentioned in the page header represents our signal balance based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.

LONG SHORT

33% 67%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Bearish sentiment with 67% of traders holding short positions. The market has a negative bias, but watch for signs of exhaustion if this percentage increases further.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 114.740 0.42% ↑

Analysis Price: 114.257

Support Levels

S1: 113.740 0.45% ↓

Market Regime:

Uptrend

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

80%

Price Position Analysis

Price is between support at 113.740 (0.45% below analysis price) and resistance at 114.740 (0.42% above), with slightly closer proximity to resistance. Watch for rejection confirmation at resistance or break above.

Chart Pattern Analysis

85%

Double Top

Reliability:

85%

Detected: May 14, 05:40

76%

Bearish Engulfing

Reliability:

76%

Detected: May 14, 07:57

58%

Descending Triangle

Reliability:

58%

Detected: May 14, 06:16

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly bearish patterns detected across timeframes, suggesting downward pressure. The most reliable pattern is a bearish Double Top on the H1 timeframe with 85% historical reliability. Multiple timeframes showing pattern confirmation increases the reliability of the signal.

High Probability Zones

Support Zone

95%

Zone Level:

113.768

analysis price:

114.257

Distance:

0.21%

Confluence Factors:

Inverse Head and Shoulders 38% Retracement

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is extremely close to a high probability (95%) support zone at 113.768. This presents a potential buying opportunity with stop loss slightly below the zone. Multiple confluence factors strengthen this level's significance.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

0.9

Volatility Regime:

Low

Volatility Level:

14%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

AUDJPY is exhibiting low volatility (14 percentile) with an expected daily range of just 0.9 pips. This reduced movement typically indicates consolidation or indecision in the market. Consider tighter stop losses but be aware that breakout potential increases after periods of low volatility.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with AUDJPY

CADJPY

0.84

NZDJPY

0.84

AUDCHF

0.82

CHFJPY

0.81

GBPJPY

0.80

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how AUDJPY correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

AUDJPY shows strong positive correlation with: CADJPY, NZDJPY, AUDCHF, CHFJPY, GBPJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

AUD

0.27

Neutral

JPY

0.78

Very-strong

Relative Strength:

-0.51

Bearish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

JPY is significantly stronger than AUD on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -0.51. This suggests a strong bearish bias for AUDJPY. However, this bias is primarily driven by the strength of JPY.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on AUDJPY to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.