AUDJPY Neutral

Analysis Price: 104.52 (Updated: 31 December 2025, 19:20 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for AUDJPY showing neutral market bias. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Neutral Low Confidence Very high Risk

Market Consensus:

48% Long

52% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a neutral outlook for AUDJPY. Contradicting factors: Retail sentiment is 70% bearish; AUD is showing relative weakness against JPY (diff: 30%). Risk assessment for this trade is very high.

Sentiment Analysis

Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (29% long / 71% short). The overall neutral bias (52%) mentioned in the page header represents our analytical consensus based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.

LONG SHORT

29% 71%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Bearish sentiment with 71% of traders holding short positions. The market has a negative bias, but watch for signs of exhaustion if this percentage increases further.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 105.20 0.65% ↑

Analysis Price: 104.52

Support Levels

S1: 104.01 0.49% ↓

Market Regime:

Range

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

65%

Price Position Analysis

Price is between support at 104.01 (0.49% below analysis price) and resistance at 105.20 (0.65% above), with slightly closer proximity to support. Watch for bounce confirmation at support or break below.

Chart Pattern Analysis

79%

Descending Triangle

Reliability:

79%

Detected: Dec 31, 16:59

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly bearish patterns detected across timeframes, suggesting downward pressure. The most reliable pattern is a bearish Descending Triangle on the H4 timeframe with 79% historical reliability. This pattern is currently only confirmed on the H4 timeframe.

High Probability Zones

No high probability zones detected for AUDJPY at this time.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

0.5

Volatility Regime:

Extreme

Volatility Level:

96%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

AUDJPY is currently showing extreme volatility (96 percentile) with an expected daily range of 0.5 pips. This indicates potentially rapid price movements that create both opportunity and risk. Consider wider stop losses (1.5-2x normal size) and reduced position sizes to manage the elevated risk.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with AUDJPY

AUDUSD

0.90

EURAUD

-0.76

GBPJPY

0.75

AUDCHF

0.69

CHFJPY

0.64

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how AUDJPY correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

AUDJPY shows strong positive correlation with: AUDUSD, GBPJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

AUDJPY shows strong negative correlation with: EURAUD. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

AUD

0.31

Strong

JPY

0.55

Strong

Relative Strength:

-0.24

Neutral Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

JPY is moderately stronger than AUD on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of -0.24. This suggests a mild bearish bias for AUDJPY. Monitor for additional confirmation signals before entering a short position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on AUDJPY to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.