USD faces pressure as bond markets signal 2026 consensus shift risks

The US dollar remains under scrutiny as bond market analysts warn about complacency in the current 2026 consensus forecast. Market expectations center on moderate growth acceleration, a stable-to-weakening jobs market, and 2-3 Fed rate cuts throughout 2026, alongside declining inflation and 10-12% equity gains. However, this consensus view appears dangerously complacent given the Trump administration's policy uncertainties. The bond market has been notably quiet but is expected to react sharply to upcoming major events that could trigger significant reassessments. Current risk-on sentiment has dominated early 2026 trading, though market positioning suggests vulnerability to sudden shifts. Traders should monitor key USD pairs for potential volatility as bond yields may spike on any deviation from the consensus narrative, particularly around Fed policy announcements and economic data releases.