CADJPY Bearish

Analysis Price: 114.36 (Updated: 31 December 2025, 19:20 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for CADJPY showing a predominantly bearish bias with 78% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish High Confidence Medium Risk

Market Consensus:

22% Long

78% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a high confidence bearish bias for CADJPY (signal strength: 56%). Supporting factors include: High probability (95%) resistance zone detected at 116; Retail sentiment is 66% bearish; Technical patterns identified: Shooting Star (H4). Contradicting factors: CAD is showing relative strength against JPY (diff: 20%). Risk assessment for this trade is medium. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

35% 65%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Bearish sentiment with 65% of traders holding short positions. The market has a negative bias, but watch for signs of exhaustion if this percentage increases further.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 114.64 0.25% ↑

Analysis Price: 114.36

Support Levels

S1: 113.49 0.76% ↓

Market Regime:

Range

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

68%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near resistance at 114.64 (0.25% above analysis price) with support at 113.49 (0.76% below). This position near resistance could present a potential selling opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

58%

Bullish Rectangle

Reliability:

58%

Detected: Dec 31, 19:18

55%

Cup and Handle

Reliability:

55%

Detected: Dec 31, 21:23

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly bullish patterns detected across timeframes, suggesting upward momentum. The most reliable pattern is a bullish Bullish Rectangle on the D1 timeframe with 58% historical reliability. This pattern is currently only confirmed on the D1 timeframe.

High Probability Zones

Support Zone

95%

Zone Level:

113.00

analysis price:

114.36

Distance:

1.11%

Confluence Factors:

Double Bottom 161.8% Extension

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Support Zone

95%

Zone Level:

114.00

analysis price:

114.36

Distance:

0.23%

Confluence Factors:

Bullish Engulfing 50% Retracement Volume Spike

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Support Zone

77%

Zone Level:

111.62

analysis price:

114.36

Distance:

2.31%

Confluence Factors:

Hammer 162% Extension

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is approaching a high probability (95%) support zone at 113.00, currently 1.11% away. Consider preparing a buy strategy as price approaches this level, watching for confirmation signals.

Multiple high probability zones exist for this pair, indicating a well-structured technical environment with clear levels for trading decisions.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

1.0

Volatility Regime:

Low

Volatility Level:

11%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

CADJPY is exhibiting low volatility (11 percentile) with an expected daily range of just 1.0 pips. This reduced movement typically indicates consolidation or indecision in the market. Consider tighter stop losses but be aware that breakout potential increases after periods of low volatility.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with CADJPY

NZDCAD

-0.88

AUDJPY

0.84

CHFJPY

0.83

GBPCAD

-0.80

USDCAD

-0.77

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how CADJPY correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

CADJPY shows strong positive correlation with: AUDJPY, CHFJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

CADJPY shows strong negative correlation with: NZDCAD, GBPCAD, USDCAD. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

CAD

0.76

Very-strong

JPY

0.55

Strong

Relative Strength:

0.21

Neutral Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

CAD is moderately stronger than JPY on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of 0.21. This suggests a mild bullish bias for CADJPY. Monitor for additional confirmation signals before entering a long position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on CADJPY to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.