CADJPY Bearish

Analysis Price: 106.59 (Updated: 17 August 2025, 12:47 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for CADJPY showing a predominantly bearish bias with 73% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Raw trader sentiment shows 62% long, 38% short. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish High Confidence Medium Risk

Market Consensus:

27% Long

73% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a high confidence bearish bias for CADJPY (signal strength: 46%). Supporting factors include: High probability (95%) resistance zone detected at 107.5; Technical patterns identified: Double Top (D1); CAD is showing relative weakness against JPY (diff: 38%). Contradicting factors: Retail sentiment is 62% bullish. Risk assessment for this trade is medium. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (62% long / 38% short). The overall bearish bias (73%) mentioned in the page header represents our analytical consensus based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.

LONG SHORT

62% 38%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Bullish sentiment with 62% of traders holding long positions. The market has a positive bias, but watch for signs of exhaustion if this percentage increases further.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 107.12 0.50% ↑

Analysis Price: 106.59

Support Levels

S1: 106.35 0.22% ↓

Market Regime:

Downtrend

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

60%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near support at 106.35 (0.22% below analysis price) with resistance at 107.12 (0.50% above). This position near support could present a potential buying opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

No chart patterns detected for CADJPY at this time.

High Probability Zones

Support Zone

90%

Zone Level:

103.80

analysis price:

106.59

Distance:

2.61%

Confluence Factors:

Inverse Head and Shoulders 162% Extension

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

A high probability (90%) support zone exists at 103.80, currently 2.61% away from price. Keep this level on watch for potential future buying opportunities if price moves lower.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

0.4

Volatility Regime:

Low

Volatility Level:

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

CADJPY is exhibiting low volatility (1 percentile) with an expected daily range of just 0.4 pips. This reduced movement typically indicates consolidation or indecision in the market. Consider tighter stop losses but be aware that breakout potential increases after periods of low volatility.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with CADJPY

EURCAD

-0.87

CADCHF

0.86

NZDCAD

-0.85

GBPCAD

-0.84

EURJPY

0.67

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how CADJPY correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

CADJPY shows strong positive correlation with: CADCHF. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

CADJPY shows strong negative correlation with: EURCAD, NZDCAD, GBPCAD. This means these pairs tend to move in opposite directions. Negatively correlated pairs can be useful for hedging strategies or to confirm signals (a buy signal in one pair would be supported by a sell signal in the negatively correlated pair).

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

CAD

0.38

Strong

JPY

-0.08

Neutral

Relative Strength:

0.46

Bullish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

CAD is moderately stronger than JPY on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of 0.46. This suggests a mild bullish bias for CADJPY. Monitor for additional confirmation signals before entering a long position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on CADJPY to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.