The Signal Overview at the top weighs five of the readings above into one score, and the setups worth acting on are the ones where the factors that voted agree. Every pair ranked: Signals. Today's plans: Daily Forecast.
CAD/JPY Analysis
Comprehensive analysis for CADJPY showing a tentative bearish bias (low confidence) with 60% bearish signal balance across the weighted factors. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.
View CADJPY sentiment overview
AI analyst comment
CADJPY has drifted lower since rejecting 112.586 on Sep 24, printing a monthly low at 110.15 on Sep 30. The Oct 1 bounce to 111.297 was erased by Oct 2's close at 110.695. MACD is flat against its signal with a -0.007 histogram and RSI reads 37, so the decline is orderly rather than accelerating. Retail is 72% long, a meaningful contrarian headwind for this yen cross. A close below 110.15 would confirm continuation, while reclaiming 111.514 would neutralise the lower-high structure.
Signal Overview
Bearish
Low Confidence
Medium Volatility
Signal Balance:
40% Long
60% Short
Signal strength
20%
Factor agreement
89% of weight
Factor detail
Sentiment
18%
Strength
22%
Patterns
11%
S/R
24%
HP Zones
25%
Signal Analysis:
The analysis indicates a low confidence bearish bias for CADJPY (signal strength: 20%). Supporting factors include: The analysis reads the structure as bearish, even though the nearest support at 110.537 (0.23% below) sits closer than resistance; CAD is showing relative weakness against JPY (diff: 32%); Retail leans long (72%): a mild contrarian headwind. Contradicting factors: Technical patterns identified: Bullish Engulfing (D1), Double Bottom (H4). Volatility on this pair is currently medium.
AI Daily Forecast
NO PLAN The AI reads CADJPY as directionless for this session, so it publishes no entry, stop or target.
A range regime with MACD flat on its signal gives a weak edge. The long-yen theme is already carried by EURJPY, AUDJPY and NZDJPY.
Not the signal above, which is a score refreshed every three hours: this plan is written once a night, for one session. The full board.
Sentiment Analysis
Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (72% long / 28% short). The overall bearish bias (60%) mentioned in the page header represents our signal balance based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.
LONG
SHORT
72%
28%
Historical Sentiment
Sentiment Interpretation
Retail leans long (72%). Our signals read positioning contrarian and weigh it by how one-sided it is: near 60/40 it barely registers, and its weight grows with the imbalance - full strength only comes near a true 90/10 extreme.
Price and retail positioning
The same retail long % as above, over the whole archive and drawn against the price. Candles from 15 minutes to monthly.
Retail
Open CAD/JPY on TradingViewCharts drawn with TradingView Lightweight Charts™ · Copyright (с) 2025 TradingView, Inc.
Daily candles from our broker price feed, 2 October 2023 to 2 October 2026 (bid prices; the day closes at 17:00 New York); weekly and monthly candles are built from them. Drag to pan; scroll, drag the time axis or pinch to zoom. On a touch screen, drag the price scale with one finger to move the chart up or down, with two to stretch it, and double-tap it to reset.
The 15-minute, hourly and four-hour candles come from the same feed and load when you pick them; older ones load by themselves as you scroll left, back to the start of the archive. Four-hour candles open at 17:00, 21:00, 01:00, 05:00, 09:00 and 13:00 New York, as on TradingView. Their last candle is still forming and refreshes about every minute while the view is open. On those views the retail positioning is drawn as steps: it is a snapshot every 3 hours, not a minute-by-minute reading.
Retail positioning: daily snapshots since 12 May 2025, 464 so far · latest 72% long at 2 Oct 21:00 UTC; on the weekly and monthly views it is the average of the trading days. From 60% on one side it counts as crowded and from 75% as extreme, the same three states the Trade Panel shows. The positioning is refreshed every 3 hours on weekdays, not real-time.
Want this retail positioning on your MT5 charts? The Trade Panel puts it inside MetaTrader 5 for all 29 markets, next to our signal and the AI plan of the day, and the Chart Panel, new in 1.8, draws them on the chart you trade. One license covers both panels.
Discover the panelSupport & Resistance Analysis
Arithmetic pivots for this pair are pre-filled in the CADJPY pivot point calculator.
Analysis Price:
110.789
Market price now110.741Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
Between S1 110.537 (20.4 pips below) and R1 111.297 (55.6 pips above)
Resistance Levels
R1:
111.297
0.46%
↑
R2:
111.514
0.65%
↑
R3:
112.586
1.62%
↑
R4:
112.921
1.92%
↑
Support Levels
S1:
110.537
0.23%
↓
S2:
110.379
0.37%
↓
S3:
110.150
0.58%
↓
Market Regime:
Downtrend
AI Bias:
Bearish
Price Position Analysis
Price is currently near support at 110.537 (0.23% below analysis price) with resistance at 111.297 (0.46% above). This position near support could present a potential buying opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Chart Pattern Analysis
D1
63%
Bullish Engulfing
Reliability:
Detected: Oct 1, 00:00 · 1 D1 bar ago
H4
76%
Double Bottom
Reliability:
Detected: Oct 2, 09:00 · 2 H4 bars ago
D1
71%
Evening Star
Reliability:
Detected: Sep 25, 00:00 · 5 D1 bars ago · fading
D1
66%
Bearish Engulfing
Reliability:
Detected: Sep 25, 00:00 · 5 D1 bars ago · fading
Pattern Analysis Interpretation
Mixed pattern signals detected, suggesting conflicting technical factors. The most relevant formation right now is a Bullish Engulfing on D1, documented at 63% historical reliability for that pattern type, printed 1 D1 bar ago. The directional readings point in opposite ways, so this is a conflict rather than a confirmation.
High Probability Zones
Resistance Zone
78%
Zone Band (2 levels):
111.297 – 111.514
Analysis Price:
110.789
Distance:
0.46%
Market price now110.741Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
55.6 pips below the zone
Confluence Factors:
Support Zone
69%
Zone Band (3 levels):
110.150 – 110.537
Analysis Price:
110.789
Distance:
0.23%
Market price now110.741Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
20.4 pips above the zone
Confluence Factors:
Resistance Zone
54%
Zone Level:
112.586
Analysis Price:
110.789
Distance:
1.62%
Market price now110.741Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
184.5 pips below the zone
Confluence Factors:
High Probability Zones Interpretation
Price is approaching the strongest resistance zone we scored for this pair, at 111.297 (confluence score 78%), currently 0.46% away. The score comes from 4 factors converging here: a evening star formed at the level, a 23.6% retracement of the 30-day range, a psychological round number and 3 distinct tests in the last 30 days.
3 zones were scored for this pair: 1 below the analysis price and 2 above it.
Volatility Analysis
Select Timeframe:
Daily Range (pips):
85.5
Volatility Regime:
Normal
Volatility Level:
40%
10-Day ATR Trend
Volatility Interpretation (D1)
CADJPY is showing normal volatility (40 percentile) with an expected range of 85.5 pips per session. This represents average market conditions conducive to standard trading strategies. Standard position sizing and stop loss parameters are appropriate.
Correlation Analysis
Top Correlations with CADJPY
USDJPY
0.91
CHFJPY
0.87
EURJPY
0.86
GBPJPY
0.81
AUDJPY
0.78
Correlation Interpretation
CADJPY shows strong positive correlation with: USDJPY, CHFJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.
Currency Strength Analysis
Select Timeframe:
Weighted across timeframes the way our signal reads it (daily counts most), CAD vs JPY comes out at -0.32 — bearish for CADJPY. Individual tabs can disagree with it: shorter windows swing more.
CAD
-0.26
Neutral
vs
JPY
0.14
Neutral
Relative Strength:
-0.40
Bearish Bias
Currency Strength Interpretation (D1)
JPY is moderately stronger than CAD on the D1 timeframe, with a relative strength of -0.40. This suggests a mild bearish bias for CADJPY. Monitor for additional confirmation signals before entering a short position.
How to Use This Analysis
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