USD/JPY outlook: BOJ policy and intervention risks shape next moves

USD/JPY remains at a critical juncture as multiple factors converge to influence the pair's direction. Bank of Japan monetary policy decisions continue to be the primary driver, with markets closely watching for any shifts from the ultra-accommodative stance. Japanese authorities have intensified verbal warnings about potential intervention, particularly if rapid yen depreciation continues. Fiscal policy concerns in both countries add another layer of complexity, with US debt ceiling debates and Japan's fiscal sustainability under scrutiny. Global risk sentiment fluctuations significantly impact the pair, as JPY typically strengthens during risk-off episodes. Technical analysis suggests key resistance near 150.00, a psychologically important level that previously triggered intervention threats. Support lies around 147.50, coinciding with the 50-day moving average. Traders should monitor BOJ communications, US Treasury yields, and any signs of actual intervention as these could trigger substantial volatility in USD/JPY positioning.