USD/CHF Eyes Upside as Swiss GDP Growth Stays Modest at 1.4% in 2025

Switzerland's economy grew by an estimated 1.4% in 2025, a marginal improvement from the 1.2% recorded in 2024 and 1.3% in 2023, suggesting a steady but uninspiring growth trajectory for the Swiss economy. On a per capita basis, GDP expanded by just 0.5%, with cumulative per capita growth of 4.8% since 2019. Notably, the industrial sector continued to act as a drag on overall output, contributing negatively to GDP growth for another consecutive period. This persistent industrial weakness could weigh on the Swiss franc, as it undermines the case for any hawkish pivot by the Swiss National Bank. With the SNB already maintaining an accommodative stance, the tepid growth data reinforces expectations that Swiss interest rates will remain low, potentially limiting CHF demand relative to higher-yielding currencies. Traders monitoring USD/CHF and EUR/CHF should watch for any shifts in SNB rhetoric in response to these figures. Near-term, the modest growth picture may keep the franc under mild selling pressure, particularly if global risk appetite remains stable.