USD Steady as Walmart Beats Q4 Estimates but Cautious Guidance Weighs

The US dollar is holding steady in early trading as Walmart's Q4 earnings report delivers a mixed signal for Federal Reserve policy expectations. The retail giant beat consensus estimates on both revenue and earnings per share, confirming that the US consumer remains resilient and continues to spend. However, the key takeaway for forex markets lies in Walmart's forward guidance, which struck a cautious tone and may signal emerging headwinds for consumer spending in the quarters ahead. Walmart shares are indicated flat in pre-market trading despite the headline beat, suggesting investors are focused on the softer outlook. For the Fed, sustained consumer spending supports the case for maintaining higher interest rates, but weakening guidance could reinforce expectations of eventual rate cuts later in 2026. USD/JPY and EUR/USD traders should monitor how this data feeds into broader consumer confidence and retail sales narratives. Near-term, the dollar index remains range-bound as markets digest conflicting signals from corporate earnings and macroeconomic data ahead of upcoming Fed commentary.