USD Faces Uncertainty as Trump Floats Lifting Iran Sanctions Under New Regime

The US dollar faces heightened geopolitical uncertainty after former President Trump floated the possibility of lifting sanctions against Iran under a new regime, following comments about the targeted killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Trump's remarks, described by former National Security Advisor John Bolton as lacking strategic consistency, introduced multiple and often contradictory scenarios for Iran's political future, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps surrendering weapons. The lack of policy clarity adds to risk premium concerns for USD pairs, particularly USD/IRR and oil-sensitive currencies such as USD/CAD and USD/NOK. Crude oil markets are likely to react to any shift in Iran sanctions policy, which could ease global supply constraints and weigh on commodity-linked currencies. For forex traders, the key focus remains on whether sanctions relief materializes, as this would reduce geopolitical risk premium currently supporting the dollar as a safe haven. Near-term, USD may see choppy price action as markets digest the conflicting signals. Traders should monitor WTI crude and broader risk sentiment for directional cues across major pairs.