EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY: Geopolitics to Override March Seasonals

March 2026 forex seasonality patterns are expected to be largely overridden by the intensifying geopolitical backdrop centered on the US-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz tensions. Historically, March tends to favor modest USD weakness against the euro and pound, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD exhibiting mild bullish seasonal tendencies. However, the current risk environment significantly alters the calculus, with safe-haven flows and inflation-driven yield dynamics likely to dominate price action. USD/JPY, which seasonally tends toward consolidation in March, faces strong upward pressure from yield differentials. AUD/USD, typically a seasonal outperformer in Q1, is vulnerable to commodity supply chain disruptions and broader risk aversion stemming from the Middle East crisis. Traders relying on seasonal models should exercise caution and prioritize geopolitical developments and energy price movements as primary drivers. Key data releases this month, including US Non-Farm Payrolls and ECB policy decisions, could amplify volatility beyond seasonal norms. A flexible, event-driven approach is recommended over rigid seasonal positioning.