USD Faces Pressure as US NFP Expected at 59K Amid Nurse Strikes

The US dollar faces a critical test ahead of Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls release, with consensus forecasting a significantly softer reading of just 59,000 jobs added, a sharp decline from January's robust showing. Seasonal factors typically inflate first-quarter readings, and the expected pullback reflects a normalization from those distortions. A key downside risk stems from the United Nurses Associations of California/Union of Health Care Professionals strikes, which affected approximately 31,000 workers during the payrolls reference period, directly subtracting from the headline figure. This known drag could push the actual print even lower than consensus if other sectors also underwhelm. Traders should prepare for heightened volatility across major dollar pairs, as a significantly weaker-than-expected NFP could reignite expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, pressuring the greenback. Conversely, a surprise upside beat despite the strike impact would signal underlying labor market strength. Key pairs to watch include EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY, all of which are likely to see sharp moves around the release.