USD/JPY Consolidates at 20-Day SMA Within 158.00–159.00 Range

USD/JPY remains anchored around its 20-day simple moving average on March 25, 2026, trading within a tight 158.00–159.00 range as the pair awaits a catalyst for a decisive breakout. The consolidation reflects a balance between US dollar resilience — supported by elevated Treasury yields and persistent inflation expectations — and Japanese yen demand driven by safe-haven positioning and speculation around potential Bank of Japan policy normalization. The 20-day SMA is acting as a pivot point, with the pair repeatedly testing but failing to sustain moves beyond either boundary of the range. Immediate resistance stands at 159.00, a break above which could open a path toward 159.50 and the recent cycle highs near 160.00. On the downside, support at 158.00 is reinforced by the 50-day SMA, with a breach potentially triggering a decline toward 157.20. Traders should monitor upcoming US economic releases and any BOJ commentary for directional cues, as the tight range compression often precedes a significant move.