USD/CAD & Oil React as Trump Signals No Immediate Iran Invasion

Crude oil prices pulled back from session highs following reports that President Trump signaled to allies there are no immediate plans for a military invasion of Iran, triggering a kneejerk risk recalibration across energy-linked forex pairs. The news, which appears to have been deliberately leaked, comes amid contradictory messaging from the administration — with prior rhetoric suggesting negotiations were imminent and Secretary Rubio traveling to the Middle East. The credibility of the signal remains in question among market participants, as geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Iran situation persists. Oil-sensitive pairs such as USD/CAD saw volatility, with the Canadian dollar easing slightly as crude retraced. Safe-haven currencies including JPY and CHF also experienced modest pullbacks as immediate escalation fears subsided. Traders should remain cautious, as the fluid nature of US-Iran tensions could quickly reverse sentiment. Near-term, markets are likely to trade on headline risk, with oil price direction serving as the key proxy for positioning in commodity-linked and safe-haven pairs.