EUR/USD Supported as ECB Study Shows US Tariffs Hit American Consumers Hardest

EUR/USD faces upward pressure as a new ECB study reveals that US tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are disproportionately burdening domestic importers and consumers rather than foreign exporters. The study quantifies that approximately one-third of the total tariff costs are currently being absorbed by US consumers, with projections indicating this burden will increase if tariffs remain in place longer term. US exporters are reportedly shouldering only a small fraction of tariff-related costs. This finding carries bearish implications for the US dollar, as sustained consumer cost pressures could dampen spending, weigh on GDP growth, and potentially force the Federal Reserve toward a more accommodative stance. For the euro, the data suggests that European exporters are not absorbing significant costs, which may support eurozone trade competitiveness. Traders should monitor upcoming US consumer confidence and retail sales data for confirmation of tariff-driven demand erosion. The trade policy backdrop adds persistent uncertainty, with prolonged tariffs likely to widen the US trade deficit and further pressure the greenback against major counterparts including the euro.