AUD/JPY Under Pressure as Middle East Conflict Threatens Asian Energy Security

AUD/JPY and broader Asian-linked forex pairs face mounting headwinds as ASEAN ministers warn that escalating Middle East conflict poses severe risks to regional energy security and economic growth. The Strait of Hormuz, which channels approximately 25% of global seaborne oil and LNG — over 80% of which is destined for Asian markets — remains a critical chokepoint vulnerable to disruption. Freight, insurance, and logistics costs have surged sharply, compounding inflationary pressures across the region. Manufacturing PMI surveys from Japan to Australia are now flagging supply chain disruptions at multi-year extremes, undermining the growth outlook for export-dependent ASEAN and Asia-Pacific economies. The Japanese yen stands to benefit from safe-haven flows, while commodity-linked currencies such as AUD and NZD face downside risk from slowing regional demand despite elevated energy prices. CAD may find partial support given Canada's energy-exporter status. Traders should monitor USD/JPY for yen strength signals and AUD/USD for further deterioration. Elevated oil prices could also weigh on current account balances across Asian importers, adding medium-term pressure on regional currencies.