EURJPY Bearish

Analysis Price: 181.94 (Updated: 16 February 2026, 22:23 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for EURJPY showing a predominantly bearish bias with 79% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Raw trader sentiment shows 41% long, 59% short. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish Medium Confidence Low Risk

Market Consensus:

21% Long

79% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a medium confidence bearish bias for EURJPY (signal strength: 58%). Supporting factors include: High probability (95%) resistance zone detected at 183.5; Retail sentiment is 61% bearish. Contradicting factors: EUR is showing relative strength against JPY (diff: 38%). Risk assessment for this trade is low. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (41% long / 59% short). The overall bearish bias (79%) mentioned in the page header represents our analytical consensus based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.

LONG SHORT

41% 59%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Neutral sentiment with a balanced distribution between long and short positions. This suggests indecision in the market, which could precede a significant move once a clear direction emerges.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 186.24 2.36% ↑

Analysis Price: 181.94

Support Levels

S1: 181.19 0.41% ↓

Market Regime:

Downtrend

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

65%

Price Position Analysis

Price is currently near support at 181.19 (0.41% below analysis price) with resistance at 186.24 (2.36% above). This position near support could present a potential buying opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Chart Pattern Analysis

56%

Doji

Reliability:

56%

Detected: Feb 16, 12:28

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Predominantly neutral patterns detected, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. The most reliable pattern is a neutral Doji on the H4 timeframe with 56% historical reliability. This pattern is currently only confirmed on the H4 timeframe.

High Probability Zones

No high probability zones detected for EURJPY at this time.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

1.0

Volatility Regime:

High

Volatility Level:

82%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

EURJPY is experiencing high volatility (82 percentile) with an expected daily range of 1.0 pips. This above-average movement creates trading opportunities but requires careful risk management. Consider slightly wider stop losses and moderate position sizing.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with EURJPY

EURCHF

0.83

EURCAD

0.82

NZDJPY

0.82

EURNZD

0.71

GBPJPY

0.71

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how EURJPY correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

EURJPY shows strong positive correlation with: EURCHF, EURCAD, NZDJPY, EURNZD, GBPJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

EUR

0.60

Strong

JPY

-0.98

Very-weak

Relative Strength:

1.58

Bullish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

EUR is significantly stronger than JPY on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of 1.58. This suggests a strong bullish bias for EURJPY. With EUR showing absolute strength and JPY showing absolute weakness, this is an ideal scenario for a long position.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on EURJPY to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.