The Signal Overview at the top weighs five of the readings above into one score, and the setups worth acting on are the ones where the factors that voted agree. Every pair ranked: Signals. Today's plans: Daily Forecast.
EUR/JPY Analysis
Comprehensive analysis for EURJPY showing a moderate bearish bias (medium confidence) with 75% bearish signal balance across the weighted factors. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.
View EURJPY sentiment overview
AI analyst comment
EURJPY has trended down from the 181.54 spike of Sep 18. It has printed lower highs at 180.795, 179.722 and 179.309 and successive lows at 176.768 and 176.595. RSI 31 is nearing oversold and MACD stays just under its signal, though the -0.04 histogram shows the decline is losing pace. Retail is 56% long, too balanced to add contrarian weight. A daily close beneath 176.595 would extend the trend toward 176.0, while a reclaim of 179.539 would neutralise it.
Signal Overview
Bearish
Medium Confidence
Very high Volatility
Signal Balance:
25% Long
75% Short
Signal strength
50%
Factor agreement
100% of weight
Factor detail
Strength
25%
Patterns
12%
S/R
34%
HP Zones
29%
Sentiment
retail positioning too balanced to count (56% long)
—
Signal Analysis:
The analysis indicates a medium confidence bearish bias for EURJPY (signal strength: 50%). Supporting factors include: Price is near a resistance level at 177.902 (0.15% above current price); EUR is showing relative weakness against JPY (diff: 74%). Volatility on this pair is currently very high.
AI Daily Forecast
SHORT
Sell limit Expected result +0.08 × your risk estimate
Entry177.950
Stop178.650
Target 1176.771
Target 2176.000
Risk / reward1:1.68
Lower highs and a fresh 176.771 low favour selling a bounce under 178.576, with the stop just above it; this is part of the long-yen theme with AUDJPY and NZDJPY. Confidence is low because the euro CPI flash at 05:00 NY could squeeze the euro, although hotter national prints failed to lift it this week.
Not the signal above, which is a score refreshed every three hours: this plan is written once a night, for one session. The full board.
Sentiment Analysis
Note: The sentiment chart below shows actual trader positioning data (56% long / 44% short). The overall bearish bias (75%) mentioned in the page header represents our signal balance based on combined technical factors beyond raw sentiment.
LONG
SHORT
56%
44%
Historical Sentiment
Sentiment Interpretation
Retail positioning is balanced (56% long). Up to 60% on either side it carries no weight in our signals, and a balanced reading says nothing about the next move.
Price and retail positioning
The same retail long % as above, over the whole archive and drawn against the price. Candles from 15 minutes to monthly.
Retail
Open EUR/JPY on TradingViewCharts drawn with TradingView Lightweight Charts™ · Copyright (с) 2025 TradingView, Inc.
Daily candles from our broker price feed, 2 October 2023 to 2 October 2026 (bid prices; the day closes at 17:00 New York); weekly and monthly candles are built from them. Drag to pan; scroll, drag the time axis or pinch to zoom. On a touch screen, drag the price scale with one finger to move the chart up or down, with two to stretch it, and double-tap it to reset.
The 15-minute, hourly and four-hour candles come from the same feed and load when you pick them; older ones load by themselves as you scroll left, back to the start of the archive. Four-hour candles open at 17:00, 21:00, 01:00, 05:00, 09:00 and 13:00 New York, as on TradingView. Their last candle is still forming and refreshes about every minute while the view is open. On those views the retail positioning is drawn as steps: it is a snapshot every 3 hours, not a minute-by-minute reading.
Retail positioning: daily snapshots since 12 May 2025, 464 so far · latest 56% long at 2 Oct 21:00 UTC; on the weekly and monthly views it is the average of the trading days. From 60% on one side it counts as crowded and from 75% as extreme, the same three states the Trade Panel shows. The positioning is refreshed every 3 hours on weekdays, not real-time.
Want this retail positioning on your MT5 charts? The Trade Panel puts it inside MetaTrader 5 for all 29 markets, next to our signal and the AI plan of the day, and the Chart Panel, new in 1.8, draws them on the chart you trade. One license covers both panels.
Discover the panelSupport & Resistance Analysis
Arithmetic pivots for this pair are pre-filled in the EURJPY pivot point calculator.
Analysis Price:
177.642
Market price now177.594Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
Between S1 176.595 (99.9 pips below) and R1 177.902 (30.8 pips above)
Resistance Levels
R1:
177.902
0.15%
↑
R2:
179.309
0.94%
↑
R3:
179.539
1.07%
↑
R4:
180.795
1.78%
↑
Support Levels
S1:
176.595
0.59%
↓
S2:
176.000
0.92%
↓
Market Regime:
Downtrend
AI Bias:
Bearish
Price Position Analysis
Price is currently near resistance at 177.902 (0.15% above analysis price) with support at 176.595 (0.59% below). This position near resistance could present a potential selling opportunity with a favorable risk-reward ratio.
Chart Pattern Analysis
H4
76%
Double Bottom
Reliability:
Detected: Oct 2, 09:00 · 2 H4 bars ago
H1
66%
Bearish Engulfing
Reliability:
Detected: Oct 2, 17:00 · 3 H1 bars ago · fading
H1
75%
Double Top
Reliability:
Detected: Oct 2, 15:00 · 5 H1 bars ago · fading
D1
66%
Bearish Engulfing
Reliability:
Detected: Sep 25, 00:00 · 5 D1 bars ago · fading
Pattern Analysis Interpretation
Predominantly bearish patterns detected across timeframes, suggesting downward pressure. The most relevant formation right now is a bullish Double Bottom on H4, documented at 76% historical reliability for that pattern type, printed 2 H4 bars ago. The same bearish reading appears on 2 timeframes, which is worth more than a single chart agreeing with itself.
High Probability Zones
Resistance Zone
71%
Zone Band (2 levels):
179.309 – 179.539
Analysis Price:
177.642
Distance:
0.94%
Market price now177.594Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
171.5 pips below the zone
Confluence Factors:
Context (not scored):
Resistance Zone
64%
Zone Level:
177.902
Analysis Price:
177.642
Distance:
0.15%
Market price now177.594Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
30.8 pips below the zone
Confluence Factors:
Context (not scored):
Support Zone
61%
Zone Level:
176.595
Analysis Price:
177.642
Distance:
0.59%
Market price now177.594Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
99.9 pips above the zone
Confluence Factors:
Context (not scored):
Support Zone
55%
Zone Level:
176.000
Analysis Price:
177.642
Distance:
0.92%
Market price now177.594Fri 2 Oct, 20:50 UTC · market closed
159.4 pips above the zone
Confluence Factors:
Context (not scored):
High Probability Zones Interpretation
Price is approaching the strongest resistance zone we scored for this pair, at 179.309 (confluence score 71%), currently 0.94% away. The score comes from 3 factors converging here: a bearish engulfing formed at the level, a psychological round number and 5 distinct tests in the last 30 days.
4 zones were scored for this pair: 2 below the analysis price and 2 above it.
Volatility Analysis
Select Timeframe:
Daily Range (pips):
131.5
Volatility Regime:
Extreme
Volatility Level:
97%
10-Day ATR Trend
Volatility Interpretation (D1)
EURJPY is currently showing extreme volatility (97 percentile) with an expected range of 131.5 pips per session. This indicates potentially rapid price movements that create both opportunity and risk. Consider wider stop losses (1.5-2x normal size) and reduced position sizes to manage the elevated risk.
Correlation Analysis
Top Correlations with EURJPY
GBPJPY
0.95
USDJPY
0.90
CADJPY
0.86
NZDJPY
0.85
AUDJPY
0.83
Correlation Interpretation
EURJPY shows strong positive correlation with: GBPJPY, USDJPY, CADJPY, NZDJPY, AUDJPY. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.
Currency Strength Analysis
Select Timeframe:
Weighted across timeframes the way our signal reads it (daily counts most), EUR vs JPY comes out at -0.74 — bearish for EURJPY. Individual tabs can disagree with it: shorter windows swing more.
EUR
-0.78
Very Weak
vs
JPY
0.14
Neutral
Relative Strength:
-0.92
Bearish Bias
Currency Strength Interpretation (D1)
JPY is significantly stronger than EUR on the D1 timeframe, with a relative strength of -0.92. This suggests a strong bearish bias for EURJPY. However, this bias is primarily driven by the weakness of EUR.
How to Use This Analysis
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