AUDNZD Bearish

Analysis Price: 1.1724 (Updated: 16 February 2026, 22:23 UTC)

Comprehensive analysis for AUDNZD showing a predominantly bearish bias with 69% bearish consensus based on combined analytical factors. Market structure, technical patterns, and key levels examined across multiple timeframes.

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Signal Overview

Bearish High Confidence Medium Risk

Market Consensus:

31% Long

69% Short

Valid Timeframes:

M15 H1 H4 D1

Signal Analysis:

The analysis indicates a high confidence bearish bias for AUDNZD (signal strength: 39%). Supporting factors include: AUD is showing relative weakness against NZD (diff: 67%); Retail sentiment is 65% bearish. Risk assessment for this trade is medium. This signal is most valid on the M15, H1, H4, D1 timeframes.

Sentiment Analysis

LONG SHORT

37% 63%

Historical Sentiment (7 Days)

Sentiment Interpretation

Bearish sentiment with 63% of traders holding short positions. The market has a negative bias, but watch for signs of exhaustion if this percentage increases further.

Support & Resistance Analysis

Resistance Levels

R1: 1.1797 0.62% ↑

Analysis Price: 1.1724

Support Levels

S1: 1.1650 0.63% ↓

Market Regime:

Range

Analyst Bias:

Unknown

Direction Probability:

75%

Price Position Analysis

Price is between support at 1.1650 (0.63% below analysis price) and resistance at 1.1797 (0.62% above), with slightly closer proximity to resistance. Watch for rejection confirmation at resistance or break above.

Chart Pattern Analysis

94%

Bullish Flag

Reliability:

94%

Detected: Feb 16, 03:54

78%

Bearish Engulfing

Reliability:

78%

Detected: Feb 16, 12:20

61%

Rectangle

Reliability:

61%

Detected: Feb 16, 22:54

Pattern Analysis Interpretation

Mixed pattern signals detected, suggesting conflicting technical factors. The most reliable pattern is a bullish Bullish Flag on the H1 timeframe with 94% historical reliability. Multiple timeframes showing pattern confirmation increases the reliability of the signal.

High Probability Zones

Support Zone

95%

Zone Level:

1.1681

analysis price:

1.1724

Distance:

0.38%

Confluence Factors:

Morning Star 79% Retracement

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

Resistance Zone

93%

Zone Level:

1.1984

analysis price:

1.1724

Distance:

2.20%

Confluence Factors:

Shooting Star 127% Extension

Valid on Timeframes:

H1 H4 D1 W1

High Probability Zones Interpretation

Price is extremely close to a high probability (95%) support zone at 1.1681. This presents a potential buying opportunity with stop loss slightly below the zone. Multiple confluence factors strengthen this level's significance.

Multiple high probability zones exist for this pair, indicating a well-structured technical environment with clear levels for trading decisions.

Volatility Analysis

Select Timeframe:

Daily Range (pips):

30.0

Volatility Regime:

High

Volatility Level:

92%

10-Day ATR Trend

Volatility Interpretation (H1)

AUDNZD is experiencing high volatility (92 percentile) with an expected daily range of 30.0 pips. This above-average movement creates trading opportunities but requires careful risk management. Consider slightly wider stop losses and moderate position sizing.

Correlation Analysis

Top Correlations with AUDNZD

GBPNZD

0.87

AUDCHF

0.81

AUDUSD

0.80

EURNZD

0.79

NZDCAD

-0.69

Correlation Interpretation

Understanding how AUDNZD correlates with other pairs can help with portfolio diversification and risk management. Strong positive correlations (above 0.7) indicate pairs that move similarly, while strong negative correlations (below -0.7) show pairs that typically move in opposite directions.

AUDNZD shows strong positive correlation with: GBPNZD, AUDCHF, AUDUSD, EURNZD. This means these pairs tend to move in the same direction. Trading in the same direction on multiple correlated pairs increases portfolio risk, while finding divergences between correlated pairs can highlight potential reversal opportunities.

Currency Strength Analysis

Select Timeframe:

AUD

0.70

Very-strong

NZD

-0.16

Neutral

Relative Strength:

0.86

Bullish Bias

Currency Strength Interpretation (M15)

AUD is significantly stronger than NZD on the M15 timeframe, with a relative strength of 0.86. This suggests a strong bullish bias for AUDNZD. However, this bias is primarily driven by the strength of AUD.

How to Use This Analysis

This comprehensive analysis provides multiple perspectives on AUDNZD to help inform your trading decisions:

Sentiment Analysis: Use to understand market positioning and potential contrarian opportunities
Support & Resistance: Identify key price levels for setting stop losses and take profits
Pattern Analysis: Recognize technical formations that may indicate continuation or reversal
Volatility Analysis: Adjust position sizing and risk management based on current market conditions
Currency Strength: Compare the relative performance of individual currencies within the pair
Correlation Analysis: Understand how this pair moves in relation to others for portfolio diversification

For optimal results, consider how these different factors align. The strongest trading opportunities typically occur when multiple analytical tools show confirmation across different timeframes.