Oil Slides, USD/CAD Rises on Iran Ceasefire Optimism; Stocks Post Best Month

Risk appetite surged on Thursday as US equity futures climbed and crude oil prices slid sharply amid growing optimism over a potential Iran ceasefire, capping what has been the best month for stocks since 2020. The decline in oil prices—down over 3% on the session—pressured commodity-linked currencies, with USD/CAD rising as the Canadian dollar weakened on the prospect of reduced energy revenues. Meanwhile, safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc softened against the dollar as geopolitical risk premiums unwound. Brent crude fell below the $78 per barrel mark, dragging AUD/USD and NZD/USD modestly lower on the broader commodity selloff. Near-term resistance for USD/CAD sits near 1.3720, with support at 1.3650. Traders should remain cautious as ceasefire talks remain fluid and any breakdown in negotiations could quickly reverse the risk-on move. The combination of easing geopolitical tensions and strong equity momentum favors dollar strength against commodity currencies in the short term.